Simple detection of outlying short time series

Sets of relatively short time series arise in many situations. One aspect of their analysis may be the detection of outlying series. We examine the performance of standard normal outlier tests applied to the means, or to simple functions of the means, of AR(1) series, not necessarily of equal lengths. Although unequal lengths of series implies that the means have unequal variances, that are only known approximately, it is shown that nominal significance levels hold good under most circumstances. Thus a standard outlier test can usefully be applied, avoiding the complication of estimating the time series' parameters. The test's power is affected by unequal lengths, being higher when the slippage occurs in one of the longer series     

传播事实，还是传播愿望——解读有关拉萨事件的中西话语权之争

从2008年3月14日中国拉萨一小撮藏独分子发动打砸抢烧暴乱,到4月30日北京奥运圣火完成在境外传递回到中国境内的一个半月时间里,全世界的目光几乎都聚焦在中国.从受众来讲,他们从来没有这样清晰地目睹过中西新闻媒体对于同一事件报道的巨大反差,从来没有这样近距离地领略过新闻报道中事实的力量.尤其是在读西方的新闻报道中,人们都在问,究竟是传播事实,还是传播愿望?     

Inference for the measurement of poverty in the presence of a stochastic weighting variable

Empirical applications of poverty measurement often have to deal with a stochastic weighting variable such as household size. Within the framework of a bivariate distribution function defined over income and weight, I derive the limiting distributions of the decomposable poverty measures and of the ordinates of stochastic dominance curves. The poverty line is allowed to depend on the income distribution. It is shown how the results can be used to test hypotheses concerning changes in poverty. The inference procedures are briefly illustrated using Belgian data. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Randomized response techniques for complex survey designs

Singh et al. ([13]) pointed out that the Randomized response (RR) technique proposed by Moors ([9]) is not desirable because it fails to protect the confidentiality of the respondents and they provided two alternative strategies free from the above drawback but limited to SRSWOR sampling only. In this paper, generalization of one of the strategies is provided for complex survey designs, wider class of estimators and for quantitative characteristics. Relative efficiency of the modified strategy is tested through empirical investigations. An erratum to this article is available at .     

论我国法院调解的促进和规范

随着经济的发展 ,法制的完善以及审判方式改革的深化 ,法院调解这一纠纷解决方式以其独特的优点 ,在司法实践中 ,越来越显示其重要性。时代赋予法院调解新的价值的同时 ,也使其原有的法律规定弊端凸现。本文拟从法院调解三原则的地位分析中寻找促进和规范法院调解的途径 ,并运用新证据规则加以落实。     

从《朝天录》看朝鲜使节与域外文人的文化交流

李朝时期,朝鲜使臣频繁出使明朝,由于其另一身份为精通汉学的文人,因此与同样深受中国影响的域外文人进行了文学交流:李安讷同孔闻謤的诗歌酬唱,体现了中朝两国的文化认同;金尚宪与吴大斌的惺惺相惜,体现了文人间的友好情谊;李醉光与安南使者冯克宽、琉球使者蔡坚的文学往来,体现了朝鲜文学在安南等国的影响.朝鲜使臣在出使明朝的过程中,以文学为裁体,同域外文人进行了广泛的文化交流.     

回到架上——兼论绘画与其他视觉传媒的相互转译

就当下艺术现状,尤其是架上艺术危机的分析,展开对绘画思想性的深刻思索,并通过对绘画与现代视觉传播媒介相互转译实验探讨,求取两者的不同所在,进而反映笔者对艺术现状的感知焦虑,以期在艺术的纯粹思维与纯粹摹写之间划定一个合理的空间,亦即确立纯艺术领域,用以对抗艺术消亡论观点.     

语调变体解构

正确把握语调变体是言语交际成败的关键;口语中不同语调的使用表述了说话人不同的思想感情和态度.也正是这种语用语调的变异导致了语义理解和思想表达的细微差别,差之毫厘,谬以千里.本文从语调功能,常规语调运用及语调变体三个角度,以翔实的例句分析,对英语语调变体进行解构.