The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old-Age Mortality Estimates

We examine inferences about old-age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial bias in the measurement of mortality rates at older ages. This type of measurement error is consequential for three strands in the demographic literature: (1) the deceleration in mortality rates at old ages; (2) the black-white mortality crossover; and (3) the relatively low rate of old-age mortality among Hispanics, often called the “Hispanic paradox.” Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men matched to death records in both the U.S. Vital Statistics system and the Social Security Death Index, we demonstrate that even small rates of missing mortality matching plausibly lead to an appearance of mortality deceleration when none exists and can generate a spurious black-white mortality crossover. We confirm these findings using data from the National Health Interview Survey matched to the U.S. Vital Statistics system, a data set known as the “gold standard” (Cowper et al. 2002) for estimating age-specific mortality. Moreover, with these data, we show that the Hispanic paradox is also plausibly explained by a similar undercount.     

受众心理分析视角的网络谣言治理

网络受众是网络谣言传播的主体,其不同的心理状态推动了网络谣言的生成与传播。网络受众的心理状态主要表现为泄愤心理、从众心理、窥私心理、投射心理以及选择心理等多种复杂的心理状态。这些心理状态的成因在于社会主义民主法制不健全、政府公信力低以及受众理性精神不足。唯有通过加强民主法制建设,健全网络法治监管,建立信息发布机制,建立辟谣中介组织以及加强网络媒介素养教育等途径,才能培育成熟的网络受众心理,从而提升网络谣言治理的成效。     

Trajectory of Life Satisfaction and its Relationship with Subjective Economic Status and Successful Aging

The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between subjective economic status and indicators of successful aging to life satisfaction trajectories among the elderly in Taiwan. Data were from the four waves of “Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan”. Hierarchical linear modeling was conducted. Subjective economic status was measured by childhood economic status and time-varying economic satisfaction. Time-varying physical, mental, and social successful aging variables and demographics were also used to describe the trajectory of life satisfaction. Life satisfaction showed a slightly decreasing but generally stationary trend across time. The concurrent economic satisfaction was associated with life satisfaction trajectory, but childhood economic status was not significant. The time-varying depressive symptoms, cognitive function and social support were related to the life satisfaction trajectory. Policy on the elderly should take particular account of the economic security, mental health, and social support of the elderly.     

20世纪90年代亚洲金融危机与本次金融危机的比较分析

20世纪90年代的亚洲金融危机和本次金融危机是近年来两次主要的世界性金融危机.从金融机构的安全性、流动性和盈利性经营原则来分析两次危机的风险形成机制,可以得出对我国金融改革有益的启示:即必须全面看待创新的效益和影响,加强金融监管,防范金融机构过度追求盈利性带来的系统风险.     

Dependence Estimation Over a Finite Bivariate Failure Time Region

This articleconcerns nonparametric estimation of association between bivariatefailure times. In the presence of independent right censoring,the support for failure time variates may be restricted and measuresof dependence over a finite failure time region may be of particularinterest. To this end, the reciprocal cross ratio function, weightedby the bivariate failure time density, is proposed as a summarymeasure of dependence over a failure time region. This `relativerisk' estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptoticallynormally distributed, with consistent bootstrap variance estimator.A finite-region version of Kendall's tau, which is suitable forcensored failure time data, is also proposed, and correspondingasymptotic distribution theory is noted. The accuracy of theseasymptotic approximations is studied in simulations and an illustrationis provided.     

Adoption of the mobile Internet: An empirical study of multimedia message service (MMS)

Multimedia message service (MMS) provides more multimedia communication with entertainment effects than current text-based short message service (SMS). While many reports indicate that the mobile Internet market will be huge, little is known about whether people will accept MMS. This study applies innovation diffusion theory to examine the factors that influence the adoption of MMS. The proposed model was empirically evaluated by using survey data collected from 207 users concerning their perceptions of MMS. The findings indicate that perceptions of use were different over innovation diffusion stages. Specifically, there was a significant difference between potential adopters and users. The results may provide further insights into MMS marketing strategies.     

电炉喷粉工艺GCr15轴承钢的强韧化机制初探--钢中氮的行为

喷射冶金是净化钢中夹杂物的主要途径之一,并可影响和决定于夹杂物本身的尺寸、形状、分布及属性.北满特殊钢股份有限公司从瑞典引进的"SL"钢包喷吹装置,其工艺特点是利用载气将粉状材料直接喷入钢液.由于强烈的钢水搅拌,大大加速了反应的动力学,并且促进了钢水夹杂物的排除.试验证明:这种工艺精炼的轴承钢,其接触疲劳寿命比电炉钢提高3倍左右.对喷粉电炉轴承钢中氮的行为进行了分析,探讨了钢包喷粉工艺生产轴承钢(GCr15)的强韧化机制.     

MARKET VENTURES, MORAL LOGICS, AND AMBIGUITY: Crafting a New Organizational Form in Post-Socialist China

How do institutional entrepreneurs craft new organizational forms under unstable conditions, especially when all of the relevant organizational models have serious liabilities in terms of legitimacy? Previous literature argues that emergent organizational models must adopt existing organizational elements in order to solve three problems: (1) gaining access to resources, (2) exploiting previous competencies, and (3) demonstrating legitimacy to salient audiences. Yet, these three distinct needs often require very different organizational elements associated with diverse, contradictory moral logics. This article, which examines the case of for‐profit ventures started by Chinese state organizations in the 1990s, reveals one strategy that entrepreneurs can use to solve this problem—to deliberately increase ambiguity about the organization's central characteristics and its underlying moral logic. This strategy makes it possible for new organizations to solve the problems of resources, competency, and legitimacy by simultaneously adopting (and adapting) contradictory organizational elements.