心理模拟:一种有效预防冲动购买行为的方法

冲动购买是比较典型的消费者非理性购买行为。以往关于冲动购买的文献大量集中于探讨影响消费者冲动性的因素上面,而对于消费者自我控制的研究较少。本文基于自我控制的欲望—意志力模型,运用实验方法,探讨心理模拟技术对消费者冲动购买的影响。实验结果发现,过程模拟可以显著降低消费者的冲动购买水平,而结果模拟则明显提高消费者的冲动购买水平,高低冲动特质的人在这种效果上呈现明显差异;在不加控制的情况下,高冲动特质的人更偏好结果模拟,低冲动特质的人更偏好过程模拟。     

人民民主:理性的诉求与实现路径分析

认识我国的人民民主需要理性的规制,实现人民民主是党和人民共同的责任.现实中,人民民主并没有达至理想的结果,核心的问题是我们尚未开创出其成长所需的各项条件.尽管实现人民民主理想目标的最终路径仍需艰辛探索,但通过改善民生,在改善民生与人民民主之间建立起良性互动机制,为人民民主创造适宜的成长环境和条件应是一积极而稳妥的方策.     

Public opinion about AIDS policies. The role of misinformation and attitudes toward homosexuals

In an effort to better understand the cognitive and attitudinal factors underlying public opinion on AIDS-related issues, this article proposes and empirically tests a model of the relationships between (1) knowledge of HIV transmission, specifically the misinformation that AIDS can be transmitted easily through casual contact with HIV-infected persons; (2) attitudes toward homosexuals, the most prominent of the social groups presently affected by the AIDS crisis; and (3) support for restrictive public policies aimed at HIV-infected persons. Data from two nationally representative surveys conducted in December of 1985 (N = 2,308) and in July of 1987 (N = 2,095) provide evidence that misinformation about AIDS transmission and negative attitudes toward homosexuals are strong predictors of support for stringent restrictions of persons with AIDS. The findings also suggest that several background factors, in particular, education and political liberalism, may also play decisive roles in influencing levels of support for restricting those infected with the AIDS virus.     

A semiparametric extended hazard regression model with time-dependent covariates

We introduce a general class of semiparametric hazard regression models, called extended hazard (EH) models, that are designed to accommodate various survival schemes with time-dependent covariates. The EH model contains both the Cox model and the accelerated failure time (AFT) model as its subclasses so that we can use this nested structure to perform model selection between the Cox model and the AFT model. A class of estimating equations using counting process and martingale techniques is developed to estimate the regression parameters of the proposed model. The performance of the estimating procedure and the impact of model misspecification are assessed through simulation studies. Two data examples, Stanford heart transplant data and Mediterranean fruit flies, egg-laying data, are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the EH model.     

Measuring relative efficiency of government-sponsored R&D projects: A three-stage approach

Without considering differences in operating environment, traditional methods of efficiency evaluation are suffering from external environmental influences. This study presents an alternative approach for assessing the relative efficiency of government-sponsored research and development projects (GSP). A three-stage approach employing data envelopment analysis to evaluate efficiency and Tobit regression to control external variables was applied to 110 projects over 9 years. This study finds that firm size, industry, and ratio of public subsidy on research and development (R&D) budget of recipient firm significantly influences the technical efficiency of GSP in Taiwan. After controlling these external variables, the mean value of technical efficiency in the third stage increases and becomes significantly different to that in the first stage. Most GSPs increase their returns when their projects are scaled up. Furthermore, government policy makers must establish the upper-limit ratio of subsidies on R&D budgets of recipient firms to avoid inefficient use of public funds.     

The asymptotic distribution of the process capability index Cpmk

The main result of this paper is that under some regularity conditions, the distribution of an estimator of the process capability index C_pmk is asymptotically normal.     

Adaptive sequential procedures for comparing new treatments with a standard

In this paper we propose and study two sequential elimination procedures for selecting all new treatments better than a standard or control treatment. These procedures differ from those previously proposed in that we assume variances are unequal and unknown. Expressions for asymptotic expected sample sizes are given. Confidence intervals associated with the procedures are also discussed.     

Using the Fast Fourier Transform to Compute Multiple Comparisons With the Best and Subset Selection Critical Values

Multiple comparison methods are widely implemented in statistical packages and heavily used. To obtain the critical value of a multiple comparison method for a given confidence level, a double integral equation must be solved. Current computer implementations evaluate one double integral for each candidate critical value using Gaussian quadrature. Consequently, iterative refinement of the critical value can slow the response time enough to hamper interactive data analysis. However, for balanced designs, to obtain the critical value for multiple comparisons with the best, subset selection, and one-sided multiple comparison with a control, if one regards the inner integral as a function of the outer integration variable, then this function can be obtained by discrete convolution using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). Exploiting the fact that this function need not be re-evaluated during iterative refinement of the critical value, it is shown that the FFT method obtains critical values at least four times as accurate and two to five times as fast as the Gaussian quadrature method.