Unconditional government social cash transfer in Africa does not increase fertility

Among policymakers, a common perception surrounding the effects of cash transfer programmes, particularly unconditional programmes targeted to families with children, is that they induce increased fertility. We evaluate the Zambian Child Grant Programme, a government unconditional cash transfer targeted to families with a child under the age of 5 and examine impacts on fertility and household composition. The evaluation was a cluster randomized control trial, with data collected over 4 years from 2010 to 2014. Our results indicate that there are no programme impacts on overall fertility. Our results contribute to a small evidence base demonstrating that there are no unintended incentives related to fertility due to cash transfers.     

对旅行社往来款项管理的问题及对策的探讨

往来款项是公司与客户之间的业务往来所形成的款项。在市场信用危机存在的情况下这种方式却导致企业相互间账款的拖欠现象越来越严重，造成企业往来款项负担增加，资金周转困难，影响到公司的正常经营。为此我们应积极寻求新的理念，及时解决往来款项中存在的问题，促进企业积极正常发展。所以，本文分析了中小型旅行社往来款项的问题，针对存在的问题提出相应的改进对策。     

学习迁移的系统理论:PPEE理论模型的建构和意义

学习是人类社会永恒的主题。为了更好地利用过去的经验，增强学习效果，个人和组织进行学习迁移具有重要意义。学习迁移是指将在以往通过学习或解决问题所获得的经验，用于解决之后所遇到的问题。本文力图建立系统的学习迁移理论，研究人、问题、环境的因素对于学习迁移的影响。本文采用理论推导的研究方法，在前人研究的基础上，提出相应的理论模型。本文运用系统的观点，构建了学习迁移的PPEE理论模型，认为人的因素、问题的因素、人和问题的交互作用、以及环境的调节作用，会共同影响学习迁移的效果。本理论主要从五个方面论述学习迁移的机制。首先，将人的因素按照不同层面划分为后端基本能力、中端心理过程、前端知识结构，讨论了其各自对学习迁移效果的直接影响。其次，将问题的因素划分为形象相似性和抽象相似性，并根据这两个维度构建了四种问题间关系类型，并探究了其与学习迁移效果之间的关系。第三，同时考虑人的因素和问题的因素，研究了二者之间的互动对于学习迁移效果的影响。第四，将环境因素划分为时间紧迫性和空间重要性两个维度，探讨了人和环境，以及问题和环境之间的互动对学习迁移效果的影响。第五，基于系统整体的方面，研究人、问题、环境三者之间的互动对学习迁移效果的交互影响。本文还认为，该模型不仅适用于个人，也同样适用于团队、组织、地区、甚至国家和社会等各个层面，影响各个层面主体的学习迁移。本文最后总结了研究的理论和实践贡献，并提出了未来研究课题。本文对丰富学习理论、特别是学习迁移理论，以及推动教育和管理实践的发展进步具有重要的意义。     

科学发展视野中马克思主义风险思想的时代阐释

由大地震引发的日本核危机突显了当代风险问题的重要性。所谓"风险",是指因社会发展而潜伏下来的遍布经济、政治、文化和社会公共领域的各种可能性危险。马克思主义的经典文本为风险防范实践提供了丰富的思想资源,认为资本在形态转化过程中会遭受经济风险。防范政治风险的关键在于坚持党的领导,全球化趋势是当代文化风险的重要根源,通过风险分担可以防范社会公共风险。以马克思主义为指导建构风险防范机制,必须以防范经济风险作为整个风险防范实践的基础,并通过政治、文化和社会公共领域的风险防范,保障经济、乃至整个社会的安全与稳定。     

Can We Perceive Near Miss? An Empirical Study

Near misses are a special kind of reinforcement which increases one’s desire to play. The aim of this paper is to examine the perception of near misses in normal population. We used a slot machine simulation running on a PC, where participants had to play four rounds with different near miss ratios (0, 15, 30 and 45%). Our sample consisted of 159 individuals with mean age of 22.8 and with no or little gambling experience. For data analysis we used chi-squared goodness-of-fit test and exact binomial test. Despite the fact, that there was a notable effect of near misses results showed that the subjects could not perceive trials of them.     

从仪式到非遗:石首跳三鼓文化传承研究

石首跳三鼓是流行于石首的一种具有明显地域特色的丧葬仪式,其历史悠久,表演形式多样,文化功能显著,早已深深融入百姓的生活.近年来,石首跳三鼓由地方性祭祀仪式发展为国家级非物资文化遗产,其文化传承受到越来越多人的关注.石首跳三鼓正面临着文化空间压缩、殡葬改革冲击、市场化的局限等文化传承困境,从拓展文化空间、强化科技支撑、规范市场行为等方面,对石首跳三鼓文化可持续性传承提出了一些思路.     

Impact of physical activity and sedentary behaviour on fall risks in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

The objective of this work was to summarise and evaluate the evidence showing that physical activity is a protector factor as regards falls in older people. Relevant studies were identified through a systematic search in the MEDLINE and Cochrane Library, under the keywords of accidental fall/numerical data and risk factors, and with the bibliographies of retrieved papers. The combined odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval] for physical activity was 0.75 [0.64, 0.88] with moderate heterogeneity (I ²?=?33%). For fall injury, it was 0.59 [0.47, 0.74] and, for falls in general, it rose to 0.94 [0.76, 1.17] with nil heterogeneity. The combined OR for sedentary factors was 1.14 [1.10, 1.82] with moderate heterogeneity (I ²?=?36%). Regular physical activity in daily life yields significant reduction in falls in older people, especially falls with injuries.     

感性消费时代的广告受众心理分析

通过对广告受众心理进行分析,总结出新形势下广告受众心理的主要特点。具体受众心理分析是：一、感性心理：情趣情调;自我比拟;理想向往;流行时尚;交流互动;品牌偏好。二、理性——感性心理：实用价值观念变异;自我价值中的理性与感性;体现个性。     

SOFT SKILLS,HARD SKILLS,AND THE BLACK/WHITE WAGE GAP

This study examines the relative importance of soft skills versus hard skills across occupations and its impact on the observed wage gap between Blacks and Whites in the United States. It posits that the Black/White pay gap may vary across occupations that require the use of different types of skills. We classify occupations into hard‐skill intensive versus soft‐skill intensive jobs using the skill content measures of different occupations from the Occupational Information Network (O*Net). We then use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and Current Population Survey (CPS) to investigate the impact of job skill type on the wage gap. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, we show that this wage gap in white‐collar jobs is smaller for hard‐skills jobs than it is for soft‐skills jobs. Moreover, we demonstrate that, in response to variations in the wage gap across different occupations, Blacks are more likely to self‐select themselves into hard‐skills jobs, ceteris paribus. This shows not only that discrimination against Blacks varies across occupations, but also that such discrimination induces the self‐selection of Blacks into certain occupations. Moreover, this finding highlights the role played by co‐worker/customer discrimination in explaining the racial wage gap in the U.S. labor market. (JEL J15, J31)     

空气污染治理与公众健康———来自“大气十条”政策的证据

为探究《大气污染防治行动计划》 (以下简称“大气十条”)的健康效应,本文基于中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据及省级面板数据,利用基于多项Logit模型的双重差分法(Logit-DID),从微观与宏观两个维度考察“大气十条”政策的健康改善效应及其传导机制,并进一步通过异质性分析探讨环境健康不平等的内在原因 研究发现:“大气十条”实施带来显著的健康效应,该政策不仅能有效控制与空气污染高度相关疾病的发病率和死亡占比,还能够间接降低受空气污染影响较小的疾病病情。其作用机理主要通过控制PM2.5浓度改善公众健康,同时该政策对二氧化硫(SO2)、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘等其 他污染物浓度的下降起到了协同作用。进一步分析显示环境福利不公平的现象依然存在,“大气十条”政 策显著降低了疾病高发人群的发病率,且对女性、城镇居民和低、高年龄段等疾病高发人群的健康影响更显著。本文为政府构建环境健康公平发展路径,推进“健康中国”战略提供了经验证据和政策借鉴。