改革开放以来中国经济发展及1997—2010年经济发展预测(三)——中国地区经济发展的政策思路

预测“九五”至2010年中国地区经济发展,分析区域经济发展的两大特征,总结影响地区经济发展差别的基本规律,提出促进中国区域经济协调发展的政策选择。     

On the shrinkage of local linear curve estimators

Local linear curve estimators are typically constructed using a compactly supported kernel, which minimizes edge effects and (in the case of the Epanechnikov kernel) optimizes asymptotic performance in a mean square sense. The use of compactly supported kernels can produce numerical problems, however. A common remedy is ridging, which may be viewed as shrinkage of the local linear estimator towards the origin. In this paper we propose a general form of shrinkage, and suggest that, in practice, shrinkage be towards a proper curve estimator. For the latter we propose a local linear estimator based on an infinitely supported kernel. This approach is resistant against selection of too large a shrinkage parameter, which can impair performance when shrinkage is towards the origin. It also removes problems of numerical instability resulting from using a compactly supported kernel, and enjoys very good mean squared error properties.     

A gold key to initiate a new situation in family planning work]

Because of the popularization of a responsible agricultural production system, the livilihood of peasants has been improving greatly, while the demands and needs of the general public are also increasing at the same time. Still under the influence of the traditional belief of carrying on one's family line and emphasis on having male children, married people prefer to have more childre, and the birth rate is now rising again. In order to solve this new problem, we need to teach the peasants national policies on population, land utilization, and food supply. In order to initiate a new situation in family planning work, we need to control this "gold key" of ideological education and propaganda. The emphasis should be placed on ideological education for cadres at all levels as well as the general public in order that they may understand the Party's strategy. Education on the national strategy should be combined with material interests of the peasants, and reward and punishment in production should also be linked up with that of family planning. Social measures are needed to reduce economic burdens of the peasants, offer better treatment for single-child households, and provide adequate care for old and retired people. Family planning projects should be consolidated and improved. Scientific management, facilities and techniques for birth control, compensation for working personnel in family planning, and other practical problems deserve immediate attention and solution.     

基于网络的企业营销活动实证分析

网络的应用对企业传统的营销方式产生了冲击。本文利用对近百家企业问卷调查获得的数据,运用实证的方法,证明了我国企业由于使用网络改善了其营销活动并有利于提高了营销绩效,并进一步分析了客户关系管理与信息管理在网络环境下职能的变化。     

由现收现付制向基金制转轨的经济学分析

文章讨论了有关养老保险体系转轨的几个基本的经济学问题。首先从宏观经济运行的角度出发探讨了以下两个问题 :为什么要从现收现付制向基金制转轨 ?对于现阶段的中国来说马上向基金制转轨是否是最优的选择 ?文章还阐释了基金制下的收益率的决定因素并对基金制与现收现付制的风险因素进行了比较 ,最后对养老保险体系的改革提出了几点建议     

中国西部风景河流的保护政策探析

通过分析我国西部流域开发中的不同争论,强调河流的审美功能也同样值得关注。在对美国《自然与风景河流法案》进行分析的基础上,认为有必要进一步促进公众的参与,通过加强流域总体规划,构建具有中国特色的风景河流保护体系,并形成统一的中国国家公园管理体系,这将有力促进西部可持续发展。     

基于医疗质量的公立医院绩效体系构建研究

目的：运用德尔菲法构建一套科学、可操作的公立医院绩效评价体系。方法：采用文献法研究国内外绩效评价理论,结合问卷结果形成初始量表。通过德尔菲法对指标进行两轮筛选及优化。结果：初步形成由“社会效益”、“质量安全”、“运行效益与效率”为基本结构的指标体系,包括3个一级指标、13个二级指标和72个三级指标。结论：该指标体系重点关注医院公益性及内涵质量,对公立医院绩效评价具有一定参考意义。     

家国命运的象征映射——论抗战文学中的“女难民”书写

考察抗战文学各种文体,其中出现了大量对民族苦难的写实与表达,而对于女性在战争中苦难与境遇的表现体现得最为真实与丰富。在抗战各类纪实书写中集中出现的女难民,既是战争所带来的民族苦难的具像化身,其实也被作家有意建构成一个反侵略战争文化的明确符号,成为表征战争与和平价值取向的有力砝码。