Unresolved Conflicts in the Regional Security System: The Case of the South Caucasus

The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region.     

中国教育事业发展的实证分析

随着我国经济的快速发展，国力的迅速提升，我国的教育事业也取得了前所未有的进步，为了从量上衡量教育所取得的成就，以及对全民族化素质提高的影响，构建了两个指标：人均受教育年限、教育基尼系数，利用第四次、第五次人口普查的数据，进行了计算，从结果中可以看出，我国各地区的教育事业成就惊人，但是，发展并不平衡。同时，提出了两个令人惊讶的，值得深入研究的教育的“平均之谜”。     

论企业统计队伍的继续教育

加强企业统计人才队伍的继续教育,是企业统计改革与发展的关键。本文通过对企业统计人员的现状剖析,根据企业对统计人才的需求,提出了企业统计人才队伍继续教育的具体思路与方法。     

魏晋南北朝的美学思想和盆景艺术

魏晋南北朝是中国古代动乱最多、人民生活最悲惨的时代。战争、动乱使汉王朝“独尊儒术”的旧思想体制大崩溃 ,导致魏晋南北朝时期的古代中国思想最解放、最自由。美学思想和精神的自由 ,酿就了艺术创造精神的勃发 ,因而新的艺术形式、艺术规律应运而生并相互融会贯通。此时的盆景艺术正是在绘画、园林、盆栽、赏石等艺术形式的影响下孕育了自己最初的表现形式和美学规律 ,因此可以说该时期是盆景发展史上的一个重要阶段     

Generalized quasi-likelihood

The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations. The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results. This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University.     

Ideas versus ideology: The origins of modern labor economics

Starting with its early twentieth century origins, the development of Labor Economics is traced to the present. We describe an intellectual revolution in which an earlier tra-dition that focused primarily on the institution of the labor union has been replaced by a perspective that emphasizes the various roles played by labor markets in an eco-nomic system. That earlier tradition contained very significant ideological elements, whereas its successor deals much more with the world of ideas. In the course of the debate, which still continues, ideas triumphed over ideology and created modern Labor Economics.     

论企业经营管理与专利技术的关系

本文认为随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善 ,尤其是加入WTO以后专利战略、专利信息的获取与利用、专利权营销等已成为企业经营管理的重要内容和手段。并探讨了企业经营管理的各个方面与专利技术的关系。     

企业生态质量控制评价指标体系研究

生态质量管理理念的产生是可持续发展理论向质量管理理论渗透的结果。在介绍生态质量管理理念产生的基础上,提出从环境、顾客生态满意度、职业安全健康和企业生存能力四个方面评价企业的生态质量管理,并设计了相应的指标体系。     

Flipping and ex post aggregation

We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information. Received: 16 April 2002/Accepted: 27 May 2002