Bootstrap methods for stationary functional time series

Bootstrap methods for estimating the long-run covariance of stationary functional time series are considered. We introduce a versatile bootstrap method that relies on functional principal component analysis, where principal component scores can be bootstrapped by maximum entropy. Two other bootstrap methods resample error functions, after the dependence structure being modeled linearly by a sieve method or nonlinearly by a functional kernel regression. Through a series of Monte-Carlo simulation, we evaluate and compare the finite-sample performances of these three bootstrap methods for estimating the long-run covariance in a functional time series. Using the intraday particulate matter (\(\hbox {PM}_{10}\)) dataset in Graz, the proposed bootstrap methods provide a way of constructing the distribution of estimated long-run covariance for functional time series.     

论我国城乡职业教育资源的优化配置

城乡统筹,实现职业教育资源的优化配置,其重大意义在于:发挥了城市对乡村的辐射带动作用,找到了城乡结合、院校协作、资源共享的最佳契合点,也使多渠道转移农民就业变为现实。鉴于我国职业教育经费投入重城轻乡、专业设置重工轻农、院校布局重东部轻西部的实际,实现职教资源优化,应秉持城乡一体化、资源效能最优化和社会效益最大化的原则。具体举措为:统一领导,发挥政策的引领、规范作用;统一规划,构建我国东部支援西部、城市支援乡村的职教资源优化配置网络;创新思维,多渠道筹集财力资源;创造条件,鼓励双师型教师、优秀毕业生到贫困地区任教;精成援助,校际之间实现软硬件资源整合共享。     

Missing Elements in the Protection of Children: Three Cases from China

ABSTRACT.

The article analyzes 3 severe cases of child abuse that were widely discussed in the mass media in China in 2007 based on a framework used by the International Society for Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect in its official publication World Perspectives on Child Abuse. The framework sets out the basic elements that must be included in systems of child protection: a) a responsible government or government-authorized organization; b) a set of institutional arrangements for reporting cases of child abuse, investigation, and intervening when necessary; and c) state guardianship or mechanisms to remove children from their parents’ care when necessary. By applying the framework to the 3 cases under analysis, the authors found that these basic elements are missing from the Chinese child protection system, and therefore, they recommend that a reform of the system to address these elements should be a priority for Chinese social policy. The article makes a number of recommendations for reform.     

Looking for best practice in caring for disabled children: a case of socialized foster care in China

This study focuses on the problems associated with caring for children with cerebral palsy (CWCP) in Chinese State Children's Welfare Institutions (SCWIs). It considers how to place these children with foster families and also provide them with the best rehabilitation services. In a pilot project, one SCWI trained foster parents as rehabilitators and provided services to CWCPs living with foster families in selected rural communities. The practice was very successful over the last decade, and more than 600 CWCPs in these communities are growing up happily. Hence, specialized foster care projects could be a solution for all SCWIs in China, where most of the institutionalized children are disabled.     

探索城市景观形象建设的新思路

改革开放30年来．我国经济社会发生了巨大变化,城市化步伐加快．城市面貌日新月异。21世纪是城市经济的世纪．高速的城市化发展进程．为我国的经济社会持续快速发展提供了基础平台．有效地提高了国民的物质和文化生活质量。另一方面．为适应快速发展的需要,提高城市建设的速度．许多城市简单地采用“模式化”建设方式．忽略了城市的自身特色、地域特点等．照搬照抄国内外其他城市的建筑、风格、特色等,造成了城市建设“千城一面、个性丧失、整体空间景观形象混乱”等问题和遗憾。     

农民市民化中的行为主体问题探析

在城乡二元对立现象严重的中国．要实现社会的科学发展,建立和谐社会．城乡统筹工作显得尤为重要。城乡统筹工作要取得根本性的突破与发展．关键在于实现人的转变．即实现农民的城市化．完成农民向城市市民角色的转变。目前很多专家、学者在谈到农民市民化问题时．都强调户籍制度、社会保障、就业政策等．但是农民市民化并不只是解决农民户口、     

关于我国民航法无限额赔偿制度的思考

我国民航法第132条规定的无限额赔偿制度存在不合理之处。该规定将证明承运人主观过错的举证责任交由不具备举证能力的旅客承担,违背了民事诉讼法上举证责任分配的公平原则;在我国部门化立法模式下由民航总局起草的民航法,过于偏重保护承运人利益,与当今国际社会保护消费者利益的立法趋势不符。建议修改民航法,在无限额赔偿制度中实行举证责任倒置,由承运人对其不存在民航法规定的过错承担举证责任。     

Bridging the Gap between Planned and Market Economies: employment policies for people with disabilities in two Chinese cities

From 1978 on wards, China has experienced a radical transition from a centrally-controlled planned economy to a market economy. At the same time, the Chinese economy is developing at high speed. This dynamic situation poses numerous opportunities and challenges to people with disabilities in China. The research finds that, with the help of government's employment policies, disabled people in two Chinese cities have benefited from both the market reforms and high speed economic growth. The Chinese government did not simply throw away the previous institutional arrangements and withdraw from its responsibility for supporting people with disabilities. In contrast, it adjusted the previous policies in order to mobilise resources from the newly-developing market economy. However, the policies have their limitations. They are temporary in nature and suitable for the transitional period only. There are potential problems and challenges ahead for disabled people in a fully fledged market economy in China.     

人力资本投资与回报机制探索

人力资本是知识经济时代最为主动、关键的竞争要素 ,人力资本投资与回报机制是健全市场经济体系的根本要求。目前 ,我国在人力资本投资与回报机制的构建上尚存在诸多不足与缺憾。改善现状的根本途径就是结合国内外的成功经验并借鉴相关的理论建议 ,通过微观领域内薪酬制度的完备 ,配合宏观领域内相应政策措施的实施 ,构建科学的人力资本投资与回报机制。     

Social Security Reform in China's Transition to a Market Economy

This paper begins by describing the origins of a social security system that was based on a series of institutional splits that resulted in the development of a fragmented system characterized by inequity and incomplete coverage. The entitlements embedded in this system have proved difficult to revise in the light of changing circumstances and the pressures associated with economic transition, demographic change and the newly emerging problems of open unemployment and urban poverty. These developments, particularly the latter, are creating new demands on a system already struggling to adjust to structural problems of coverage and financial soundness. A series of extensive reforms in the areas of pensions and unemployment insurance and a rationalization of administrative arrangements and responsibilities have been introduced over the last two decades, but further reform seems inevitable as external pressures and policy priorities change. A key goal of the reform process has been to transfer responsibility for social security from enterprises to the state, but the system still suffers from a series of serious financial problems. Despite the extensive reforms that have already been introduced, these problems and the structural imbalances underlying them will require further action. The most important of these imbalances relate to the split between the nature and role of social security in the urban and rural sectors, the role of the commercial provision and its relationship with the state, and the extension of programmes aimed at poverty alleviation.