Bayesian break-point forecasting in parallel time series,with application to university admissions

A regular supply of applicants to Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario is provided by 65 high schools. Each high school can be characterized by a series of grading standards which change from year to year. To aid admissions decisions, it is desirable to forecast the current year's grading standards for all 65 high schools using grading standards estimated from past year's data. We develop and apply a Bayesian break-point time-series model that generates forecasts which involve smoothing across time for each school and smoothing across schools. “Break point” refers to a point in time which divides the past into the “old past” and the “recent past” where the yearly observations in the recent past are exchangeable with the observations in the year to be forecast. We show that this model works fairly well when applied to 11 years of Queen's University data. The model can be applied to other data sets with the parallel time-series structure and short history, and can be extended in several ways to more complicated structures.     

Union commitment and membership support for political action: An exploratory analysis

Union political activity has always been controversial, even among union members. Research has shown that a sizable minority of union members question the propriety of union political involvement and disagree with union leaders on public policy issues. It has also shown, however, that union members’ commitment to the union may be positively associated with members’ political support. This study extends this research by statistically estimating the relationship between union commitment and members’ support for their national union’s political involvement. Based on the questionnaire responses of several hundred local union members, the findings support a positive relationship between union commitment and political support. The authors wish to thank John Delaney and Cynthia Fisher and an anonymous referee for their comments on an earlier draft of the paper. They also wish to thank the numerous union participants in the study.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF PERSISTENCE IN RESPONDENT SELECTION FOR PREELECTION SURVEYS

Different techniques for respondent selection can affect dataquality. These differences can result in variations in the distributionof partisans in preelection surveys, which in turn can havean effect on the distribution of candidate preference. Persistencein trying to interview designated respondents in telephone householdsincreased the number of Republicans in a 1984 sample, and thereforeReagan's margin over Mondale. Such differences in interviewingtechniques might account for some of the variations in nationalpreelection estimates of the outcome of the presidential election,and they suggest that caution be used in comparing marginalsfor party identification from different surveys employing differentrespondent selection techniques.     

Involving parents in the treatment of behaviorally disordered children

Effective psychiatric treatment for children requires the active participation of the children's parents. This paper describes a training model that has been applied successfully to diverse groups of parents of hospitalized children. Lecture, role-playing, and other techniques are used to help parents implement social learning concepts with their children. Applications range from the judicious use of praise to elaborate contingency management systems, depending upon the abilities and needs of the parents. The authors argue that this model has wide applicability and is especially amenable to an outpatient setting.     

Huck Finn and the game model gloss

Several authors have cited the metaphor of game playing as an analytical device to study social behavior. Traditionally, the game model has been used either to promote a more strict or instrumental control upon actual social behavior or to match a formal game model construction of a social event with actual behavior in everyday life, and through this method shed light upon aspects which otherwise would be overlooked. In another connection, various authors have discussed the concept of glossing in social relations. This paper uses Mark Twain's last chapters ofThe Adventures of Huckleberry Finn to explicate how the game model can be used as a gloss. The game model gloss then is a unique combination of sociological conceptualizations presented through the medium of a lively literary allegory. We feel this paper extends the concept of glossing and furthers the understanding of the game metaphor in sociological theory.This paper has been presented at the Spring 1977 meetings of the Southern Sociological Society in Atlanta, Georgia.