A time series model for cohort data

A univariate time-series model is presented for projecting age- or duration-specific data for recent cohorts. The model is also capable of taking period effects into account, is illustrated using Dutch data on marital fertility rates.     

The Seveso Directive: An Italian Pilot Study in Enabling Communication

In 1982 the Council of the European Communities issued a Directive on the Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities, commonly known as the Seveso Directive. Besides other requirements, the Directive specifies that members of the public liable to be affected by a major accident from certain industrial activities must be informed of safety measures and how they should behave in the event of an accident. The Directive was subsequently amended in an extensive way. Upon the transposition of the Seveso Directive and its amendments into national legislations, the 12 European Member States are faced with the task of "appropriately and effectively" informing the public about major accident hazards. Delays are observed throughout the community, both in transposing the Directives and implementing public information. A pilot study on "Risk Information Needs" was commissioned and carried out at two Seveso sites in Italy in order to begin to resolve some of the problems involved in the provision of public information and to suggest appropriate guidelines. One hundred subjects answered an experimental protocol designed to assess their "information needs." This article presents the theoretical background, the pragmatic aims, and the design of the study. It also summarizes its most relevant findings and suggests some recommendations for the provision of information to the public.     

International and internal migration decision making: a value-expectancy based analytical framework of intentions to move from a rural Philippine province

"The study compares determinants of internal and international migration intentions, drawing upon interview data from a sample of adults in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines. A regression model is applied to test the relative determinants of intentions to migrate to Manila and to Hawaii. The study is based on a value-expectancy model of migration decision making. The results document the importance of subjective expectations related to the attainment of different values and goals in Manila and Hawaii."     

Women’s Tertiary Education Masks the Gender Wage Gap in Turkey

This paper investigates the gender wage gap for full-time formal sector employees, disaggregated by education level. The gap between the labor force participation rate of women with tertiary education and those with lower levels of education is substantial. There is no such gap for men. Hence, existing gender wage gap studies for Turkey, where we observe lopsided labor force participation rates by education levels, compare two very different populations. We disaggregate the whole sample by education level to create more homogenous sub-groups. For Turkey, without disaggregation, the gender wage gap was 13% in 2011, and women are significantly over-qualified relative to men on observed characteristics. Once we disaggregate the sample by education level, we show that the gender wage gap is 24% for less educated women and 9% for women with tertiary education in full-time formal employment. Observed characteristics only explain 1 % of this gap in absolute terms. We further disaggregate the data by public and private employment. The gender gap is higher in the private sector. However, women with tertiary education in the public sector are significantly better qualified compared to men, and consequently the adjusted gender wage gap is higher for women with tertiary education in the public sector. Our estimates also indicate a rise in the gender wage gap between 2004 and 2011.     

Developing Age-Friendly Cities: Case Studies From Brussels and Manchester and Implications for Policy and Practice

Developing environments responsive to the aspirations of older people has become a major concern for social and public policy. Policies and programs directed at achieving “age-friendly” communities are considered to require a wide range of interventions, including actions at the level of the social and physical environment. This article compares the age-friendly approaches of two European cities, Brussels and Manchester, with a particular focus on policies and initiatives that promote active aging in an urban context. The article examines, first, the demographic, social, and multicultural contexts of Brussels and Manchester; second, the way in which both cities became members of the World Health Organization Global Network of Age-Friendly Cities and Communities; third, similarities and differences in the age-friendly approaches and actions adopted by both cities; and fourth, opportunities and barriers to the implementation of age-friendly policies. The article concludes by discussing the key elements and resources needed to develop age-friendly cities.     

Nonprofit organizations in between the nonprofit and market spheres: Shifting goals,governance and management?

In spite of the belief instilled by the New Public Management reforms that nonprofit organizations (NPOs) can benefit from more management, more measurement and more market practices, systematic knowledge on the organizational effects of NPOs incorporating business practices in their day‐to‐day functioning remains absent to date. This research note addresses this limitation by reviewing 49 research articles. The focus lies on the redefinition of nonprofits' mission and income streams, changing governance arrangements and shifting management practices. We find that, despite numerous detrimental effects cited in the literature, (a) generating commercial income can contribute to the financial stability of NPOs, and (b) hybridization towards the market domain can strengthen the organizational legitimacy of NPOs, suggesting that imitating for‐profit enterprises might contribute to nonprofit functioning in perception, rather than in practice.     

Bilateral Donors' Efforts to Assess and Manage UN Agencies' Effectiveness: Seeking a Balance between Paris Principles and Domestic Accountability

Since the turn of the century, results orientation and performance measurement have become buzzwords in development aid. Bilateral donors are increasingly concerned about the effectiveness of core‐funded UN specialised agencies, funds and programmes, through which they channel a substantial part of their funds. While the logic for increased monitoring is clear, it is less evident how to assess this information for purposes of accountability, performance‐based funding and governance. This article describes the general evolution in this area and discusses two major initiatives to harmonise and align bilateral assessments, using case‐study material from three bilateral donors (Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK) with clearly diverging performance‐management cultures, and exploring the extent to which they rely upon joint and aligned initiatives.     

Convergence rates for uniform confidence intervals based on local polynomial regression estimators

We investigate the convergence rates of uniform bias-corrected confidence intervals for a smooth curve using local polynomial regression for both the interior and boundary region. We discuss the cases when the degree of the polynomial is odd and even. The uniform confidence intervals are based on the volume-of-tube formula modified for biased estimators. We empirically show that the proposed uniform confidence intervals attain, at least approximately, nominal coverage. Finally, we investigate the performance of the volume-of-tube based confidence intervals for independent non-Gaussian errors.