Cross Validation of the Gambling Problem Severity Subscale of the Canadian Adolescent Gambling Index (CAGI/GPSS) on a Sample of Ontario High School Students

This paper reports on the cross validation of the Gambling Problem Severity Subscale of the Canadian Adolescent Gambling Index (CAGI/GPSS). The CAGI/GPSS was included in a large school based drug use and health survey conducted in 2015. Data from students in grades 9–12 (ages 13–20 years) derived from the (N = 3369 students). The CAGI/GPSS produced an alpha of 0.789. A principle component analysis revealed two eigenvalues greater than one. An oblique rotation revealed these components to represent consequences and over involvement. The CAGI/GPSS indicated that 1% of the students fell into the “red” category indicating a severe problem and an additional 3.3% scored in the “yellow” category indicating low to moderate problems. The CAGI/GPSS was shown to be significantly correlated with gambling frequency (r = 0.36), largest expenditure (r = 0.37), sex (more likely to be male) (r = ?0.19), lower school marks (r = ?0.07), hazardous drinking, (r = 0.16), problem video game play (r = 0.16), as well as substance abuse. The CAGI/GPSS was cross validated using a shorted version of the short SOGS, r = 0.48. In addition the CAGI/GPSS and short SOGS produced very similar patterns of correlations results. The results support the validity and reliability of the CAGI/GPSS as a measure of gambling problems among adolescents.     

改进粒子群算法优化灰色神经网络预测模型及其应用

文章针对神经网络存在局部最优、收敛速度慢以及大样本等缺点,将改进的粒子群算法、灰色模型和神经网络模型有机结合,构建了改进粒子群优化灰色神经网络预测模型(IPSO-GMNN).并与其他预测模型进行比较,实证结果表明:IPSO-GMNN预测模型能够克服神经网络预测模型的不足,更好地识别时间序列的非线性和突变性特征.在对我国专利授权数量的预测应用中,新模型对非线性时间数据预测表现出更好的预测精度和稳定性.     

中国股市高阶矩风险及其对投资收益的冲击

本文首先建立NAGARCHSK模型,推算市场收益率的条件高阶矩序列,在此基础上建立引入高阶矩风险的收益-风险时变四因子状态空间模型,并基于2000-2016年中国股票市场的收益率数据,实证探究不同时期市场高阶矩风险对投资收益的冲击.结果显示:我国股票市场收益受到高阶矩风险的影响,并且条件高阶矩序列表现出时变和波动聚集的特征,大规模的全球性金融危机和国内市场的重大风险事件均会使股市收益的条件高阶矩序列出现持续的异常波动.在未出现极端金融危机的稳定时期,市场收益率的条件方差会趋于对投资收益产生正向影响,条件偏度和条件峰度对投资收益的影响在正向和负向之间不断交替,增加了投资收益的不确定性.然而在全球性的极端金融危机时期,市场收益率的条件方差会转而对投资收益产生负向影响,条件峰度则会对投资收益带来持续的正向影响.     

An Examination of School Counselors’ Competency Working with Lesbian,Gay and Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) Students

This study aims to investigate school counselors’ competency level in working with lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) youth. Using a sample of 125 school counselors who are currently practicing in schools, this study found school counselors perceived themselves with very low competency levels. Spearman's rho correlation results indicated that only three demographic variables were significantly correlated with school counselors’ self-perceived competency level: sexual orientation, whether having received any postmasters trainings and geographic regions. Counselors identifying as nonheterosexual, those who received postmasters trainings or workshops, and those who reside in the West tend to have a higher self-perceived competency working with youth identifying as LGBT.     

Producing mobility: visual narratives of the rural migrant worker in Chinese television

This paper employs literatures of mobility to explore the ways which rural migrant workers in China are represented publicly via television drama. Through an analysis of the popular serial Mingong, the paper examines the underlying politics of contemporary migration in China through three themes: the territorialisation of rural and urban spaces; the embodiment of boundaries via corporeal practices and subjectivities; and the politicisation of rural migrant desires. This analysis demonstrates the significance of television in crafting discursive understandings of mobility and migrants that are suffused with contemporary governmentalities of generating but also managing and excluding migration.     

农村外出劳动力回流迁移的影响因素和回流效应

文章分析农村外出劳动力回流迁移的影响因素.农村外出劳动力在城市就业、经济收入和社会保障的排斥影响他们的回流,同时回流迁移也受到家庭生活、家庭劳动力状况、家庭农业活动和农地状况等因素的影响.外出劳动力的回流迁移是“被动回流”和“主动回流”相结合的过程、是个体决策和家庭决策的综合过程.文章提出劳动力回流迁移具有“回流效应”,回流带来人力资本的补偿、促进流出地非农经济的发展和带来创业的增长.劳动力回流作为城镇化过程中内生的逆迁移流,构成乡城迁移和劳动力市场平衡的补充机制,与乡城迁移一起促进城镇化和城乡平衡发展.文章提出在城镇化过程中需要支持“迁移效应”和“回流效应”机制共同发挥作用.     

Gambling,Drinking and Quality of Life: Evidence from Macao and Australia

The investigation of the interface between psychological constructs, compulsive consumption of alcohol and pathological gambling is an important avenue for development of future initiatives in social marketing or prevention programs. This cross-cultural study attempts to bridge the gap in literature by providing an evaluation of the predictive ability of psychological variables such as gambling urge, gambling-related erroneous cognitions and comorbid alcohol consumption on pathological gambling behaviour and its impact on overall quality of life indicators. Participants consist of 445 Macao and Australian young adults (Mean age = 23 years). Results indicate that probable pathological gamblers as compared with non-gamblers reported significantly lower quality of life in all domains—physical health, psychological well-being, social relationships and environment. Adults who drank more alcohol and have stronger erroneous cognitions evidenced higher pathological gambling behavior. Our research model fits both cohorts and interestingly, erroneous gambling-related cognitions serve as a full mediator for the predictive relationship between gambling urge and pathological gambling in the Macao sample, but serve as a partial mediator in the Australian sample. Targeting erroneous cognitions in future social marketing or preventive campaigns should demonstrate to be an important strategy in reducing the effects of urge to gamble among at-risk individuals. Further implications for the industry, marketing and governmental strategies are discussed.     

北京人口和产业政策的经济影响分析——利用扩展的投入产出模型

本文分析北京控制人口增长和产业政策引发的经济影响,通过延伸的北京投入产出模型计算最终需求(产出、收入、税收和GDP)乘数和产出驱动(产出、收入、税收和GDP)乘数,测算北京人口控制和产业疏解引发的经济影响和土地开发限制引发的经济影响。分析结果显示,无论是人口控制、产业疏解,还是土地开发限制,对北京的经济影响都是相当显著的,计算的主要经济指标(分行业的产出、收入、税收和GDP)的绝对值和增长率都表明了这个结论。因此,北京在控制人口和疏解产业的同时,需要采取相应的措施来消除控制城市增长的人口和产业政策带来的税收、收入等负面影响。     

在校大学生法律意识现状——基于太原理工大学在校生问卷调查

大学生法律意识是指大学生这一类特殊群体对法及现行法律和各种法律现象的观点和认识。是一个由法律知识、法律观念、法律观点组成的复杂系统。文章以太原理工大学在校大学生为调查对象,分别从法律知识、法律观念、法律观点三个方面对大学生法律意识现状进行了调查研究。结果显示,大学生已经逐渐认识到法律的重要性,学法的热情也较高,所掌握的法律知识较之前也有大幅度的提高;但他们对所学法律知识的内化程度不高,缺乏宪政意识,同时也存在着厌诉的情绪;在法治观念上存在着认知偏差,对法律认识缺乏理性思维,学法功利性较强,缺乏法律信仰。