Quantifying Economic Dependency

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.     

Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention–Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel

How do changes in employment uncertainty matter for fertility? Empirical studies on the impact of employment uncertainty on reproductive decision-making offer a variety of conclusions, ranging from gender and socio-economic differences in the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions and behaviour, to the effect of employment on changes in fertility intentions. This article analyses the association between a change in subjective employment uncertainty and fertility intentions and behaviour by distinguishing male and female partners’ employment uncertainty, and examines the variation in these associations by education. Using a sample of men and women living in a couple from the Swiss Household Panel (SHP 2002–2011), we examine through multinomial analysis how changes in employment uncertainty and selected socio-demographic factors are related to individual childbearing decisions. Our results show strong gendered effects of changes in employment uncertainty on the revision of reproductive decisions among the highly educated population.     

Explaining Conflicting Results in Research on the Heterogeneous Effects of Parental Separation on Children’s Educational Attainment According to Social Background

In recent years, researchers have become increasingly interested in how the effects of parental separation on children’s educational attainment vary with social background. On the one hand, parents with more resources might be better able to prevent possible adverse events like separation to affect their children’s outcomes. On the other hand, children from higher social backgrounds might have more resources to lose from a parental separation. A wide range of empirical studies on the issue have come to inconsistent conclusions, with support found for both perspectives. The aim of this paper is to monitor the influence of methodological and operational choices on the different results observed across studies. We focus on aspects such as the operationalization of key variables, the measurement of inequality in absolute and relative terms and the different strategies used to address endogeneity. We study the effects of parental separation on educational attainment for a cohort of British children born in 1970 and find that conclusions change depending on whether social background is measured using the mother’s or father’s characteristics and whether relative or absolute differences between groups are considered. Results are relatively insensitive to the operationalization of dependent variables and the treatment of missing data. When using data from Understanding Society instead of the British Cohort Study, results also did not change. We reflect on how these findings can explain the contradictory results from earlier studies on the topic, and how heterogeneity in the effects of parental separation by socio-economic background should be interpreted.     

Recent Mortality Trend Reversal in Russia: Are Regions Following the Same Tempo?

After several decades of negative trends and short-term fluctuations, life expectancy has been increasing in Russia since 2004. Between 2003 and 2014, the length of life rose by 6.6 years among males and by 4.6 years among females. While positive trends in life expectancy are observed in all regions of Russia, these trends are unfolding differently in different regions. First, regions entered the phase of life expectancy growth at different points in time. Second, the age- and cause-specific components of the gains in life expectancy and the number of years added vary noticeably. In this paper, we apply decomposition techniques—specifically, the stepwise replacement algorithm—to examine the age- and cause-specific components of the changes in inter-regional disparities during the current period of health improvement. The absolute inter-regional disparities in length of life, measured by the population-weighted standard deviation, decreased slightly between 2003 and 2014, from 3.3 to 3.2 years for males, and from 2.0 to 1.8 years for females. The decomposition of these small changes by ages and causes of death shows that these shifts were the result of diverse effects of mortality convergence at young and middle ages, and of mortality divergence at older ages. With respect to causes of death, the convergence is mainly attributable to external causes, while the inter-regional divergence of trends is largely determined by cardiovascular diseases. The two major cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, are currently pioneering mortality improvements in Russia and are making the largest contributions to the inter-regional divergence.     

Between ‘Pioneers’ of the Cardiovascular Revolution and Its ‘Late Followers’: Mortality Changes in the Czech Republic and Poland Since 1968

After several decades of stagnation, mortality in most Central European countries started to decrease after 1989. The Czech Republic and Poland were the first former Communist countries in this region to experience a rapid and sustained increase in life expectancy. This study focuses on the trends in cause-of-death mortality that have contributed to the recent progress in these two countries. The analysis is based on the cause-of-death time series (1968–2013) reconstructed in accordance with the 10th ICD revision, which makes the data fully comparable over the full period under study. Actual trends in cause-specific mortality are presented, and age, sex and causes of death components of life expectancy changes are disentangled. In both countries, the reduction in cardiovascular mortality at adult and old ages was crucial for the increase in life expectancy after 1991. Results are discussed in the context of institutional changes that occurred after the fall of Communism, such as the reorientation of health policies and the emergence of non-governmental organizations. Changes in health-related attitudes and behaviours as well as structural changes in societies, notably the rising share of persons with tertiary education, are also discussed.     

非英语专业研究生学术英语写作能力的培养

明晰学术英语与学术英语写作、学术能力与学术写作能力的概念区别;综述国内外几十年来的学术英语写作能力的培养研究;提出对非英语专业研究生学术英语写作能力的培养模式：以学术阅读带动学术写作能力的提高,以体裁分析理论为基础的互动学习,写作技能训练与研究生专业知识相结合,面授知识与网络自主学习相结合。     

重庆地区汉代画像的发现、研究与展望

经过多年考古工作的积累,重庆地区发现了丰富的汉代画像遗存。主要见于三类载体：一是画像石棺（含崖棺）、鎏金铜棺饰等葬具,二是画像石、画像砖、崖墓墓壁等墓葬本体,三是石阙、碑刻等。在地域分布上,多见于长江、嘉陵江干流及其支流沿岸;在画像制作上,以平钑减地为主要技法;在题材内容上基本趋同,以双阙、凤鸟、伏羲女娲或西王母为固定组合,是这一时期求仙思想的实物反映。目前,重庆地区汉代画像的发现与研究存在考古工作系统性、资料刊布等方面的不足,研究局限明显,有待于更高层面的全域时空梳理与研究。     

早期经典梦意象的审美文化分析

梦意象是中国古代审美文化中极为重要的一种类别.作为人类精神的共同财富,西方的理论与中国的经典梦意象虽然产自不同的时空背景,却有着高度的相容性,借助于它们的帮助,可以让我们更全面地探寻梦意象背后的奥秘.根据荣格的原型批评理论,熊罴梦与兰梦的广泛流传不是因为别的什么原因,而是古人对于其中蕴含着的"子嗣"这个中国古代社会中极为重要的集体无意识的高度关注.<庄子>蝴蝶梦与骷髅梦的"斗争"隐含着荣格移情与抽象学说的影子,前者的盛行与后者的悄无声息不能不说与移情和抽象这两种不同的审美心态有着直接的联系.     

现代科技视野下人与自然矛盾的解决

“全球问题”深刻反映了人与自然的矛盾。从一定意义上说,“全球问题”的出现,是由于现代科技广泛应用于自然而又失去控制所引发的。以放弃现代科技的悲观姿态建立人与自然的和谐,无助于问题的解决。只有充分体现现代科技的人文关怀和生态关怀,才能建立人与自然的和谐。