The Impact of Cultural Events on Community Reputation and Pride in Maribor,The European Capital of Culture 2012

Social Indicators Research - This paper examines the cultural and social impacts of the European Capital of Culture (ECOC) on the case of the Slovenian city Maribor, the cultural capital of Europe...     

The Promethean role of Europe: changing narratives of the political and scholarly left

ABSTRACT

The gradual abandoning of the ‘socialism in one country’ doctrine during the post-war period and the intensive transformation of European social democracy in the 1990s pushed social democratic politicians and intellectuals into the front line of advocates of a unified and powerful Europe. They contributed to the inclusion of social democratic and environmentalist values in the EU’s official narrative. The success of European integration and George W. Bush’s presidency created the narrative of the Promethean role of Europe. Scholars with a social democratic or environmentalist background created this narrative and it was also shaped by authors’ national contexts.     

The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?

Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so‐called lowest‐low‐fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not confined to lowest‐fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in TFRs stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic downturn may suppress TFRs in the short run, we conclude that formerly lowest‐low‐fertility countries will continue to see increases in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later childbearing become less important.     

Estimation of flood frequencies from data sets with outliers using mixed distribution functions

In this paper the estimation of high return period quantiles of the flood peak and volume in the Kolubara River basin are carried out. Estimation of flood frequencies is carried out on a data set containing high outliers which are identified by the Rosner’s test. Simultaneously, low outliers are determined by the multiple Grubbs–Beck. The next step involved the usage of the mixed distribution functions applied to a data set from three populations: floods with low outliers, normal floods and floods with high outliers. The contribution of the data set with low outliers is neglected, since it should underestimate the flood quantiles with large return periods. Consequently, the best fitted mixed distribution from the applied types (EV1, GEV, P3 and LP3) was determined by using the minimum standard error of fit.     

Tests for Structural Changes in Time Series of Counts

We propose methods for detecting structural changes in time series with discrete‐valued observations. The detector statistics come in familiar L2‐type formulations incorporating the empirical probability generating function. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. For both models, we study mainly structural changes due to a change in distribution, but we also comment for the classical problem of parameter change. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is also included along with a real data example.     

Estimation of P{X < Y} for geometric—exponential model based on complete and censored samples

This article deals with the estimation of R = P{X < Y}, where X and Y are independent random variables from geometric and exponential distribution, respectively. For complete samples, the MLE of R, its asymptotic distribution, and confidence interval based on it are obtained. The procedure for deriving bootstrap-p confidence interval is presented. The UMVUE of R and UMVUE of its variance are derived. The Bayes estimator of R is investigated and its Lindley's approximation is obtained. A simulation study is performed in order to compare these estimators. Finally, all point estimators for right censored sample from the exponential distribution, are obtained.     

Fourier–type tests involving martingale difference processes

We develop testing procedures which detect if the observed time series is a martingale difference sequence. Furthermore, tests are developed that detect change–points in the conditional expectation of the series given its past. The test statistics are formulated following the approach of Fourier–type conditional expectations first proposed by Bierens (1982 Bierens, H. J. (1982). Consistent model speci?cation tests. J. Econometr. 20:105–134.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and have the advantage of computational simplicity. The limit behavior of the test statistics is investigated under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. Since the asymptotic null distribution contains unknown parameters, a bootstrap procedure is proposed in order to actually perform the test. The performance of the bootstrap version of the test is compared in finite samples with other methods for the same problem. A real–data application is also included.     

Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology after childbirth – A Croatian longitudinal study

Background

Following childbirth, a vast number of women experience some degree of mood swings, while some experience symptoms of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder.