On Forward Induction

A player's pure strategy is called relevant for an outcome of a game in extensive form with perfect recall if there exists a weakly sequential equilibrium with that outcome for which the strategy is an optimal reply at every information set it does not exclude. The outcome satisfies forward induction if it results from a weakly sequential equilibrium in which players' beliefs assign positive probability only to relevant strategies at each information set reached by a profile of relevant strategies. We prove that if there are two players and payoffs are generic, then an outcome satisfies forward induction if every game with the same reduced normal form after eliminating redundant pure strategies has a sequential equilibrium with an equivalent outcome. Thus in this case forward induction is implied by decision‐theoretic criteria.     

Preservation versus motorized recreation: Institutions, history, and public lands management

The management of the public lands in the United States has been shaped by the long-running conflict between environmental and utilitarian values. Recently, changing social expectations have increased demand for motorized recreational use and access. Critics contend such use of the public lands is a threat to their ecological health. Yet even as motorized use draws increased scrutiny and challenge, some commentators conclude that the battle is already over—and recreational users have won. This article focuses attention on the U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service and contends they are predisposed as institutions to favor demands for motorized recreational use and access. It concludes that what is needed is an explanation that seeks to place motorized recreational use in a historical and institutional context that offers a more complete understanding of why such users might be winning the battle.     

Complexity and practical knowledge in the social sciences: a comment on Stehr and Grundmann

This paper takes issue with Stehr and Grundmann's argument in this journal that sociology's poor record of contribution to practical knowledge results from sociologists' misguided attachment to the idea that social phenomena are peculiarly complex, and so peculiarly resistant to efforts at practical knowledge formation. Stehr and Grundmann develop their thesis by contrasting sociology to economics, claiming the latter's superior methods and disciplinary cultures enable it to contribute more successfully to solving practical problems. We argue that Stehr and Grundmann's comparison of the relative success of economics and sociology as policy sciences underestimates the extent to which the complexity argument has been destructive of economics' capacity to contribute practical knowledge, and overestimates the importance of disciplinary methods and cultures in explaining the use of economics in policy making. Further, we argue that the 'complexity argument' can contribute to better policy making, by virtue of its capacity to highlight the dangers of simplistic or fundamentalist solutions to social problems with complex causes.     

Managing in the competitive environment

The purpose of this paper is to report, on the basis of limited personal experience, that enterprises operating in a competitive environment have been able to secure significant advantages where strategy and marketing are closely integrated. Results accrue as a consequence of the responses made by customers who pass judgment on corporate products or services.     

PAYOFFS TO POWER AMONG MALES IN THE MIDDLE CLASS:

This article specifies the parameters of William Wilson's "declining significance of race' thesis and within the context of the debate about it uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine racial differences among a cohort of males in the earnings returns to two separate dimensions of job authority in middle-class jobs between 1976 and 1985. Findings do not support the Wilson thesis. Specifically, the gap in returns has increased for both authority dimensions over the approximately ten-year period. In addition, the racial gap is greater at higher than at lower hierarchical levels across both authority dimensions. Specific employment practices that explain the increase in the earnings gap over the work-career are identified and the overall implications of the findings for the Wilson thesis are discussed.     

Planning minority health programs to eliminate health status disparity

The purpose of this research is to determine program characteristics that are essential to address the problem of health status disparity between minority and nonminority populations. The respondent group consisted of a sample of 50 minority health organizations currently listed as participants in the Minority Health Resource Network in the United States Public Health Service Office of Minority Health. A three-round Delphi technique was used to reach consensus by collecting data and assessing agreement and disagreement on the issue of health status disparity from a widespread national group. Findings indicate that there is strong consensus among respondents that cultural awareness is the top priority area to address in order to eliminate health status disparities.     

The race gap in support group participation by breast cancer survivors: real or artifact?

Addressing methodological weaknesses of previous research, this study assesses whether African American women are, in fact, less likely to participate in breast cancer support groups than are White women. Of the breast cancer survivors, 958 (26% African Americans, 73% Caucasian) completed interviews concerning demographic characteristics, other support networks, effects of illness on home and spiritual life, and support group participation. Contrary to previous research, no race difference was found in support group participation. This research suggests more effort needs to be paid to sampling techniques and other methodological factors to adequately reflect the experiences and needs of breast cancer survivors, specifically African American women.     

Fitting Time Series Models by Minimizing Multistep-ahead Errors: a Frequency Domain Approach

This paper brings together two topics in the estimation of time series forecasting models: the use of the multistep-ahead error sum of squares as a criterion to be minimized and frequency domain methods for carrying out this minimization. The methods are developed for the wide class of time series models having a spectrum which is linear in unknown coefficients. This includes the IMA(1, 1) model for which the common exponentially weigh-ted moving average predictor is optimal, besides more general structural models for series exhibiting trends and seasonality. The method is extended to include the Box–Jenkins `air line' model. The value of the multistep criterion is that it provides protection against using an incorrectly specified model. The value of frequency domain estimation is that the iteratively reweighted least squares scheme for fitting generalized linear models is readily extended to construct the parameter estimates and their standard errors. It also yields insight into the loss of efficiency when the model is correct and the robustness of the criterion against an incorrect model. A simple example is used to illustrate the method, and a real example demonstrates the extension to seasonal models. The discussion considers a diagnostic test statistic for indicating an incorrect model.