Ist Das Normalarbeitsverhältnis Noch Armutsvermeidend?

The article tests the hypothesis that welfare state retrenchment and labor market deregulation have increased poverty within the German working population using a time series of poverty ratios based on different income concepts for a period of 14 years (1991–2004). The basic assumption is that changes in the societal context (welfare state, labor market, houschold structures), besides individual risk factors, explain the development of poverty over time. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study it is shown that changing labor market conditions and tax regulations have increased poverty, and this has not been attenuated by additional income sources (welfare state, household members) or by recent changes in household composition. As a result, poverty has increased for full-time employees during the observation period, especially so in Eastern Germany.     

Toward a Demography of Immigrant Communities and Their Transnational Potential

This article lays out a foundation for a demographic perspective on the development of immigrant communities. Such a perspective can strengthen the connections between in‐depth ethnographic analysis and macro‐level trends. New applications of the so‐called Lexis diagram are introduced in order to relate the current composition of immigrant communities to past immigration policy and migration patterns. The article also explores relationships between the demographic structure of immigrant populations and their transnational orientation. The analyses are demonstrated empirically through a case study of migration from Cape Verde to the Netherlands.     

Soziologie — Europäische Gesellschaften

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Bayesian Network Model with Application to Smart Power Semiconductor Lifetime Data

In this article, Bayesian networks are used to model semiconductor lifetime data obtained from a cyclic stress test system. The data of interest are a mixture of log‐normal distributions, representing two dominant physical failure mechanisms. Moreover, the data can be censored due to limited test resources. For a better understanding of the complex lifetime behavior, interactions between test settings, geometric designs, material properties, and physical parameters of the semiconductor device are modeled by a Bayesian network. Statistical toolboxes in MATLAB® have been extended and applied to find the best structure of the Bayesian network and to perform parameter learning. Due to censored observations Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are employed to determine the posterior distributions. For model selection the automatic relevance determination (ARD) algorithm and goodness‐of‐fit criteria such as marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, posterior predictive density distributions, and sum of squared errors of prediction (SSEP) are applied and evaluated. The results indicate that the application of Bayesian networks to semiconductor reliability provides useful information about the interactions between the significant covariates and serves as a reliable alternative to currently applied methods.     

Economic Darwinism

We define an evolutionary process of “economic Darwinism” for playing the field, symmetric games. The process captures two forces. One is “economic selection”: if current behavior leads to payoff differences, behavior yielding lowest payoff has strictly positive probability of being replaced by an arbitrary behavior. The other is “mutation”: any behavior has at any point in time a strictly positive, very small probability of shifting to an arbitrary behavior. We show that behavior observed frequently is in accordance with “evolutionary equilibrium”, a static equilibrium concept suggested in the literature. Using this result, we demonstrate that generally under positive (negative) externalities, economic Darwinism implies even more under- (over-)activity than does Nash equilibrium.     

Experiments in modelling recent Danish fertility curves

This paper reports the outcome of an exercise in curve fitting to annual sets of Danish age-specific fertility rates for the years 1962 to 1971 by means of least squares. Functions fitted were a cubic spline, the Hadwiger and Coale-Trussell functions, the gamma and beta densities, two versions of a polynomial, and two of Brass's relational procedures, as well as the Gompertz curve. The spline function fitted all curves far better than any of the others. The Coale-Trussell procedure and gamma density were about equal, followed by the Hadwiger function. All of these functions fit the data well. One of the polynomials fit reasonably well, but the rest of the functions were less accurate.     

Deconstructing Gender Differences in Experienced Well-Being Among Older Adults in the Developing World: The Roles of Time Use and Activity-Specific Affective Experiences

Social Indicators Research - Due to declining fertility rates and increasing longevity, the world is growing older. Improving the quality of life of older adults, and not merely preventing deaths,...