Bayesian adjustment for unidirectional misclassification in ordinal covariates

In this paper, we study the identification of Bayesian regression models, when an ordinal covariate is subject to unidirectional misclassification. Xia and Gustafson [Bayesian regression models adjusting for unidirectional covariate misclassification. Can J Stat. 2016;44(2):198–218] obtained model identifiability for non-binary regression models, when there is a binary covariate subject to unidirectional misclassification. In the current paper, we establish the moment identifiability of regression models for misclassified ordinal covariates with more than two categories, based on forms of observable moments. Computational studies are conducted that confirm the theoretical results. We apply the method to two datasets, one from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), and the other from Translational Research Investigating Underlying Disparities in Acute Myocardial infarction Patients Health Status (TRIUMPH).     

以党建促脱贫: 一项政治社会学视角的中国减贫经验研究

1986年，党建扶贫作为中国扶贫开发国家行动起步的标志，同步于改革开放的伟大历史进程中。经过30年的演进，形成当下精准扶贫、精准脱贫国家战略的核心引擎。从学理上看，以党建促脱贫所包含的将贫困治理、社会治理整合一体的发挥制度优势相嵌合，为政治社会学研究社会内聚和国家权威整合及一致性的当代主题转向，形成本土建树，提供了最为前沿的鲜活案例。     

宏观经济调控机构之间相对权力的实证分析——基于履历的部长相对地位之估计

我国政府对宏观经济运行有着较强的影响力。通过宏观经济政策调控经济是政府主要的影响途径之一。显然,由于调控的跨部门色彩,了解各部委在国务院的相对权力对理解我国宏观经济调控有着重要的帮助。在官本位的中国,部长的地位与其所在机构的相对权力有着密切的关系。本文从这点出发,通过履历法分析了四大宏观经济调控机构的相对权力。最近五届政府官员的履历表明:发改委的相对权力高于其他部门,人民银行次之,两者的差距相对较小;商务部第三,财政部第四。     

被神经性毒剂染毒的蛋白IgG中有机磷加合物的研究

本文对IgG与神经性毒剂的加合物进行了研究。用过量的神经性毒剂(沙林、梭曼、VX、环沙林)对IgG(人、大鼠IgG)进行体外染毒,用胰蛋白酶进行酶解,所得样品用Q Exactive LC-MS/MS方法进行分析鉴定,发现了IgG与神经性毒剂的加合物肽段。其中,从人的IgG中发现了4个被标记的肽段,从大鼠的IgG中发现了1个被标记的肽段,另外,还从肽段的二级谱图中发现了酪氨酸加合物的特征离子碎片。本文首次发现了被神经性毒剂标记的IgG肽段,进而说明IgG是鉴定神经性毒剂中毒的一类重要的标记蛋白。     

Fitting competing risks data to bivariate Pareto models

This paper revisits two bivariate Pareto models for fitting competing risks data. The first model is the Frank copula model, and the second one is a bivariate Pareto model introduced by Sankaran and Nair (1993 Sankaran, P. G., and N. U. Nair. 1993. A bivariate Pareto model and its applications to reliability. Naval Research Logistics 40 (7):1013–1020. doi:10.1002/1520-6750(199312)40:7%3c1013::AID-NAV3220400711%3e3.0.CO;2-7.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We discuss the identifiability issues of these models and develop the maximum likelihood estimation procedures including their computational algorithms and model-diagnostic procedures. Simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the maximum likelihood estimation. Real data are analyzed for illustration.     

用工业CT技术测量储层岩芯饱和度分布

认识储层岩石中含油饱和度及饱和度分布,对驱替机理的深入研究是非常重要的。为了搞清储层岩石在驱替过程中的饱和度分布情况,应用工业CT技术,提出了一种储层含油岩芯被驱替后的饱和度分布的CT密度差测量方法。在岩样的同一断面,分别对干岩样、饱和岩样及在驱替后的岩样进行CT扫描,重建相应的断层图象,测量所建图象的灰度值,计算出相应的密度值,用密度差法计算出饱和度及其分布值。在γ射线工业CT机“CD-300BG”上对某油田岩样进行了实际测量,获得的结果说明,采用CT密度差法测量饱和度分布是有效的。该方法与常规驱替法相比较,具有快速、精度高、无损岩样和能模拟地层状态测量等特点,是油田开发、油藏描述和地层评价的一种新的有效方法。     

薪酬参照体的效应研究:基于多表征的路径模型与相对重要性

参照体选择在分配公平、薪酬满意研究中扮演重要角色,而以往研究多是关注焦点对象与参照体在薪酬上的数量差异。本文认为,参照体"数量差异"并不能完整表征参照体的效应,为此提出了"信息知晓度"、"判断关联性"、"比较频率"、"数量差异"等四类表征,在理论基础上构造路径模型与研究假设。实证研究表明,信息知晓度、判断关联性正向影响特定参照体的比较频率;数量差异正向影响分配公平、薪酬水平满意,比较频率负向影响分配公平、薪酬水平满意。通过三种研究路径的比较研究证实,自我生活成本等七类参照体相对重要。未来亟需就参照体选择的相关机制在纵贯上、在不同的组织情境下及考虑个体差异等方面予以深入考察。     

Feature screening in ultrahigh-dimensional additive Cox model

The additive Cox model is flexible and powerful for modelling the dynamic changes of regression coefficients in the survival analysis. This paper is concerned with feature screening for the additive Cox model with ultrahigh-dimensional covariates. The proposed screening procedure can effectively identify active predictors. That is, with probability tending to one, the selected variable set includes the actual active predictors. In order to carry out the proposed procedure, we propose an effective algorithm and establish the ascent property of the proposed algorithm. We further prove that the proposed procedure possesses the sure screening property. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure via Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the proposed procedure by a real data example.     

风险刑法理论研究中的错位与检讨

社会风险不能等同于刑法危险，但二者存在动态交叉关系，社会风险可以通过刑事政策转变为刑法中的危险。风险刑法首先是现代刑法应对风险过程中"自觉"的结果，是现代刑法体系的同质组成部分。从贝克划分社会形态的时间考虑，我国早已进入风险社会，且是全面而非局部风险社会。我国社会主要矛盾的转变使我国社会风险在质上表现为严重危害公共安全和公共利益，在量上表现为风险的相对增多，从刑法的应对上来看，似乎只能选择刑法提前介入。风险刑法理论的中国展开应该从实然和应然两个层面出发，前者旨在突出风险刑法的教义学研究，后者需要从社会风险自身的特点出发，有针对性地调整刑法体系，以期防控风险、创造安全。     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.