Predictor distribution and forecast accuracy of threshold models

In the present paper the predictor distribution of a SETAR (Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive) model (Tong and Lim, 1980) has been investigated when the lead time is greater than the threshold delay.After a brief presentation of the model under study, some relevant aspects of the density forecasts are shown highlighting how they can be used to generate more accurate predictions and to estimate an approximation of the probability density function of the SETAR predictors. The performances of competing predictors have been evaluated through a simulation study and an application to financial market data of the daily Nikkey 300 stock market returns.     

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

European Journal of Population - In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic...     

Monthly Instability in Early Adolescent Friendship Networks and Depressive Symptoms

This study examined (1) the relation between perceived friendship instability and depressive symptoms, (2) the directionality of this link, and (3) whether the relation between friendship instability and depressive symptoms would differ according to specific friendship status (best and secondary friendships) and contexts (school, non-school, and multiple). Participants were 102 young adolescents (51 girls; M age  =  12 years) who completed a series of five monthly telephone interviews and in-class questionnaires. Results suggested that friendship instability over a five-month period was significantly associated with an increase in depressed mood. Regarding the directionality of the influence, cross-lag analyses revealed that elevated depressive symptoms at one time point significantly predicted an increase in friendship instability by the following month, whereas friendship instability at one time point did not predict an increase in depressive symptoms the next month. Finally, participants' depressed mood appeared to be associated with instability in their best friendships (but not secondary friendships) and in their school friendships (but not non-school and multi-context friendships). The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.     

INVESTMENT AND TIME TO PLAN AND BUILD: A COMPARISON OF STRUCTURES VS. EQUIPMENT IN A PANEL OF ITALIAN FIRMS

“Time‐to‐build” models of investment expenditures play an important role in many traditional and modern theories of the business cycle, especially for explaining the dynamic propagation of shocks. We estimate the structural parameters of a time‐to‐build model using annual firm‐level investment data on equipment and structures. For expenditures on equipment, we find no evidence of time‐to‐build effects beyond one year. For expenditures on structures, by contrast, there is clear evidence of such effects in the range of two to three years. The contrast between equipment and structures is intuitively reasonable and consistent with previous results. The estimates for structures also indicate that initial‐period expenditures are low and increase as projects near completion. These results provide empirical support for including “time‐to‐plan” effects for investment in structures. More generally, these results suggest a potential source of specification error for Q models of investment and production‐based asset pricing models that ignore the time required to plan, build, and install new capital. (JEL: D24, G31, C33, C34)     

Separation and Divorce: Effect on Family Structures and Life Conditions

The aim of this paper is to supply some basic data on separations and divorces in Italy in order to evaluate their impact on the family system both from a quantitative and qualitative point of view. The focus is on the role played by marital disruption in the observed recent increase in the number of ‘new families’ and its effects on the life conditions and economic well‐being of the women and children involved.     

An Imperfect Contraceptive Society: Fertility and Contraception in Italy

Italy represents an unexpected and in some ways paradoxical outcome in terms of fertility control: a drop to one of the lowest birth rates in the world has been accompanied by continuing extensive use of traditional methods despite the availability of modern contraception. Using data from 349 interviews conducted in 2005–06 in four Italian cities, we argue that Italian women commonly achieve “unplanned” and desired conceptions through the use of withdrawal and natural methods. While data from other countries reveal similar notions of ambivalence surrounding pregnancy intentions and contraceptive use, Italy stands out for the surprising correlation between highly “managing” the conditions under which children are born and the socially commended approach of “letting births happen.” Such results suggest the need to rethink theoretical understandings of low fertility. Through the use of non‐technological methods, individuals manipulate culturally produced norms and beliefs about the appropriate time to have a child; simultaneously, their actions are embedded in larger cultural, economic, and political processes.