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951.
Many important questions and theories in demography focus on changes over time, and on how those changes differ over geographic
and social space. Space-time analysis has always been important in studying fertility transitions, for example. However, demographers
have seldom used formal statistical methods to describe and analyze time series of maps. One formal method, used widely in
epidemiology, criminology, and public health, is Knox’s space-time interaction test. In this article, we discuss the potential
of the Knox test in demographic research and note some possible pitfalls. We demonstrate how to use familiar proportional
hazards models to adapt the Knox test for demographic applications. These adaptations allow for nonrepeatable events and for
the incorporation of structural variables that change in space and time. We apply the modified test to data on the onset of
fertility decline in Brazil over 1960–2000 and show how the modified method can produce maps indicating where and when diffusion
effects seem strongest, net of covariate effects. 相似文献
952.
Childbearing behavior in East Asian countries has changed rapidly during the past half century from an average of five to seven children per family, to replacement-level fertility, and subsequently to unprecedentedly low levels, the lowest in the world. This article analyzes fertility trends in Hong Kong, Japan, singapore, south Korea, and Taiwan using cohort fertility data and methods, then examines social and economic causes of the childbearing trends, and surveys policies pursued to reverse the fertility trends. Postponement of childbearing started in the 1970s with continuously fewer delayed births being "recuperated," which resulted in ultra-low fertility. A rapid expansion of education and employment among women in a patriarchal environment has generated a stark dilemma for women who would like to combine childbearing with a career. Policy responses have been slow, with a more serious attempt to address issues in recent years. Thus far public and private institutions are not devoting sufficient attention to generating broad social change supportive of parenting. 相似文献
953.
Hui-Peng Liew 《Population research and policy review》2010,29(5):639-658
Using the 2000 wave of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS3), this study attempts to further complement studies that seek
to analyze the relationship between migration and prenatal care utilization in Indonesia. The major conclusion from the multilevel
logistic regression suggests that migrants are less likely than non-migrants to seek prenatal care in a public or private
hospital but are more likely than non-migrants to initiate prenatal care in their first trimester and to receive four or more
prenatal visits. Several measures of child, woman, household and community characteristics are also significant predictors
of the location, timing and frequency of prenatal care. It is evident that the design of effective and efficient policies
requires a more comprehensive knowledge of the determinants of migration and maternal healthcare services utilization. The
assessment of whether the extent of the location, timing and frequency of prenatal care differs between migrants and non-migrants
would have important policy implications for both individuals and society at large. 相似文献
954.
955.
Recent studies have proposed alternative birth outcome measures as means of assessing infant mortality risk; nevertheless,
there hasn’t yet been an integrated analysis of these approaches. We review 14 strategies, including various combinations
of birth weight, gestational age, fetal growth rate, and Apgar scores—as predictors of early neonatal, late neonatal, and
postneonatal mortality, and infant mortality. Using the NCHS linked birth/infant death file for 2001, we construct multivariate
logit models and assess the associations between each of the 14 key birth outcome measures and four mortality outcomes. We
find that all evaluated birth outcome measures are strong predictors, but Apgar scores are the strongest among all models
for all outcomes, independent of birth weight and gestational age. Apgar scores’ predictive power is stronger for Mexican-,
white-, and female-infants than for black- and male-infants. Second, all birth outcome measures remain significantly associated
with mortality, but their predictive power reduces drastically over time. These findings suggest a rule of thumb for predicting
infant mortality odds: when available, Apgar scores should always be included along with birth weight (or LBW status) and
gestational age. Additionally, these findings argue for the continued study of low birthweight, gestational age, and Apgar
scores as independently salient health outcomes. 相似文献
956.
Alisson F. Barbieri Edson Domingues Bernardo L. Queiroz Ricardo M. Ruiz José I. Rigotti José A. M. Carvalho Marco F. Resende 《Population and environment》2010,31(5):344-370
This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration.
We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven
by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular
relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels
of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately,
the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary
economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact
severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country.
Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian
public policy and planning. 相似文献
957.
With data drawn from the second public release version of the “Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe” (SHARE),
we scrutinize individual and contextual (regional) correlates of economic difficulties among older Europeans, aged 65 or more.
A logistic multi-level regression model with random intercept shows that the risk of being relatively poor varies considerably
among the aged. We verified that the factors affecting poverty in each area are not merely the weighted sum of the effect
of the more disadvantaged people within the same area, which also exists: poverty appears also significantly influenced by
the specific context of residence. 相似文献
958.
Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are
intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the
case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages
the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote “deep structure learning,” an approach naturally accommodates
other features associated with the case studies method—the development of critical thinking skills, the use of real world
problems, the emphasis of concepts over mechanics, writing and presentation skills, active cooperative learning and the “worthwhileness”
of a course. As noted by others, we understand the limitations of the case study method. However, given its strengths, we
believe it has a place in the instructional toolbox for courses in business demography. The fact that courses we teach is
a testament to our perceived efficacy of this tool. 相似文献
959.
The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that
can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of
geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our
argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of
the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population
estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational
attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic
methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must
be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF
could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States,
are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs. 相似文献
960.
Sven Drefahl 《Demography》2010,47(2):313-326
I use hazard regression methods to examine how the age difference between spouses affects their survival. In many countries,
the age difference between spouses at marriage has remained relatively stable for several decades. In Denmark, men are, on
average, about three years older than the women they marry. Previous studies of the age gap between spouses with respect to
mortality found that having a younger spouse is beneficial, while having an older spouse is detrimental for one’s own survival.
Most of the observed effects could not be explained satisfactorily until now, mainly because of methodological drawbacks and
insufficiency of the data. The most common explanations refer to selection effects, caregiving in later life, and some positive
psychological and sociological effects of having a younger spouse. The present study extends earlier work by using longitudinal
Danish register data that include the entire history of key demographic events of the whole population from 1990 onward. Controlling
for confounding factors such as education and wealth, results suggest that having a younger spouse is beneficial for men but
detrimental for women, while having an older spouse is detrimental for both sexes. 相似文献