Passage a l'age adulte et mobilite spatiale

Starting with longitudinal data on two cohorts of women living in the Alpes-Maritimes in 1982 (a sample of 1,500 women in total) we try to establish the role of the spatial distribution of opportunities at a number of key stages in the life cycle: marriage, birth of first child, making professional use of qualifications, confrontation of a situation of professional risk and professional mobility during the years immediately following the completion of studies. The underlying hypothesis is that control of social location often depends on the control of spatial location.     

Semiparametric Bayesian classification with longitudinal markers

Summary.  We analyse data from a study involving 173 pregnant women. The data are observed values of the β human chorionic gonadotropin hormone measured during the first 80 days of gestational age, including from one up to six longitudinal responses for each woman. The main objective in this study is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes from data that are available at the early stages of pregnancy. We achieve the desired classification with a semiparametric hierarchical model. Specifically, we consider a Dirichlet process mixture prior for the distribution of the random effects in each group. The unknown random-effects distributions are allowed to vary across groups but are made dependent by using a design vector to select different features of a single underlying random probability measure. The resulting model is an extension of the dependent Dirichlet process model, with an additional probability model for group classification. The model is shown to perform better than an alternative model which is based on independent Dirichlet processes for the groups. Relevant posterior distributions are summarized by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Fundamental references from the Western culture

This article presents theoretical elements concerning the ‘nature versus culture’ confrontation as a particular aspect of the worldwide expansion of Western civilization. Several speculations are made concerning the philosophical foundations which have provided the base for the current political and economic mega-scenarios in the contemporary world. We turn our attention to the articulations of the concept of nature with the processes of mondialization of Western culture and with the history of universal culture. Finally, several considerations are made on the dynamics of economic processes on a world scale and projections on the impact of science and technology in the social and political frames that are taking place in the contemporary world.     

Equality of Opportunity versus Equality of Opportunity Sets

We characterize two different approaches to the idea of equality of opportunity. Roemer’s social ordering is motivated by a concern to compensate for the effects of certain (non-responsibility) factors on outcomes. Van de gaer’s social ordering is concerned with the equalization of the opportunity sets to which people have access. We show how different invariance axioms open the possibility to go beyond the simple additive specification implied by both rules. This offers scope for a broader interpretation of responsibility-sensitive egalitarianism.     

Safety Stock,Excess Capacity or Diversification: Trade‐Offs under Supply and Demand Uncertainty

Firms mitigate uncertainty in demand and supply by carrying safety stock, planning for excess capacity and diversifying supply sources. In this study, we provide a framework to jointly optimize these three levers in a periodic review infinite horizon setting, and in particular we examine how one can reduce inventory and capacity investments through proper diversification strategies. Observing that a modified base‐stock inventory policy is optimal, we find that the capacity‐diversification problem is well behaved and characterize the optimal mix of safety stock, excess capacity and extra number of supply sources. We find that higher supply uncertainty results in higher safety stock, more excess capacity, and higher diversification. But safety stock and diversification are non‐monotonic in demand uncertainty. Our results can be extended to situations in which suppliers are heterogeneous, and can be used to develop effective heuristics.     

Perception of Multisensory Gender Coherence in 6‐ and 9‐Month‐Old Infants

One of the most salient social categories conveyed by human faces and voices is gender. We investigated the developmental emergence of the ability to perceive the coherence of auditory and visual attributes of gender in 6‐ and 9‐month‐old infants. Infants viewed two side‐by‐side video clips of a man and a woman singing a nursery rhyme and heard a synchronous male or female sound track. Results showed that 6‐month‐old infants did not match the audible and visible attributes of gender, and 9‐month‐old infants matched only female faces and voices. These findings indicate that the ability to perceive the multisensory coherence of gender emerges relatively late in infancy and that it reflects the greater experience that most infants have with female faces and voices.     

Plant closures,precariousness and policy responses: Revisiting MG Rover 10 years on

With automotive plants being closed in Australia and western Europe, this article reflects on the employment status of ex-MG Rover (MGR) workers following the closure of the Longbridge plant in 2005. In particular, it draws on Standing's typology of labour market insecurity and uses a mixed-methods approach including an analysis of a longitudinal survey of some 200 ex-MGR workers, and in-depth interviews with ex-workers and policy-makers. While the policy response to the closure saw significant successes in terms of the great majority of workers successfully adjusting into re-employment, and with positive findings in terms of re-training and education, the paper finds significant challenges in terms of security of employment, income, job quality and representation at work years after closure. In particular, the paper posits that the general lack of attention to employment security at the macrolevel effectively undermined elements of a positive policy response over the longer run. This in turn suggests longer-term policy measures are required to address aspects of precariousness at work.     

The Jackknife estimate of covariance of two Kaplan–Meier integrals with covariables

In this paper the Jackknife estimate of covariance of two Kaplan–Meier integrals with covariates is introduced. Its strong consistency is established under mild conditions. Several applications of the estimator are discussed.