Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods

This paper discusses twostochastic time-series models developed recently for projecting age-specific fertility rates: the CARIMA model and the APC-ARIMA model. The forecasting performance of both models is examined using Dutch data. Alternatively, adeterministic time-series model is presented in which the age pattern of changes in the age-specific fertility rates between successive years is described by a cubic spline function. The model is capable of describing widely varying patterns. The model is applied to age-specific fertility rates for four countries: the Netherlands, England and Wales, Sweden and Australia.Cet article traite de deux modèles stochastiques qui utilisent des séries chronologiques: le modèle CARIMA et le modèle APC-ARIMA qui ont été développés récemment pour projeter les taux de fécondité par âge. La qualité des projections réalisées avec ces deux modèles est testée sur des données hollandaises. Simultanément, un modèle déterministe est présenté dans lequel les changements des taux de fécondité par âge entre années successives sont décrits par une fonction du troisième degré. Ce modèle est capable de décrire des situations qui varient dans un très large domaine. Il est appliqué aux taux de fécondité par âge de quatre pays: la Hollande, l'Angleterre et le Pays de Galles, la Suède et l'Australie.

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The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics.     

Counterphobic behavior in multiply molested children

That multiply molested children are somehow responsible for their victimization is a conclusion unacceptable to the author, who examines one possible cause for the paradoxical behavior of these children.     

Taxation and tax resistance

In recent years social and behavioral sciences have extended their interest to topics not normally thought to be within their province. One of these topics of current interest is tax resistance, an old problem indeed that continues to plague the modern welfare state. People are perfectly willing to benefit from government services but increasingly restive about paying for them. How to cope with this tax-welfare backlash is a crucial problem for all democratic governments. Growing government deficits, for example, may in part be due to the erosion of the tax base which results from a shift to unobserved activities. The main purpose of this article is to offer a theoretical framework for the definition and explanation of tax resistance. To this end, research findings about tax compliance and tax mentality as well as theoretical work on free-riding, exchanging and gift-giving will be presented and discussed.     

European cultures and management styles

After the establishment of the Common Market in Europe, many companies from abroad opted for a single European headquarters and searched for European managers. That leads to the question whether one can really speak of a common European management style. The article at hand examines this issue. To do this, the legal framework and Corporate Governance background of individual European countries are assessed. Furthermore, cultural differences in Europe are considered. Referring to studies of cultural dimensions in European countries, the authors propose five different cultural areas in Europe. This leads to a concluding discussion of management styles in these regions.     

Unsicherheiten im Beratungsdiskurs

Uncertainties in discourses of consulting. Why consultees need philosophy — pragmatism for exampleThe author demonstrates, in which way the pragmatism, particularly the philosophy of John Dewey with his aspects of epistemology, theory of acting, theory of learning, theory of democracy and ethics, can help, how people in organisations can learn to act intelligently and successfully in processes of consulting, although just today uncertainties are wide-spread.     

Mentoring und Coaching in Unternehmen — Abgrenzung der Inhalte

Mentoring and coaching in companies — definition of contentsOften Mentoring and Coaching are used at the same time in the same situations. Mentoring marks the consultation relationship inside the company, regarding knowledge of the culture of the company, habits and unwritten statues, whereas coaching intends to get independent advice for the personality from outside the company. The different use of the terms enables the user to define the roles, contents, goals of the consultation which are dependent of the individual development goals of the person.