Biases in Attention for Social Stimuli in Children are Associated with Patterns of Infant Attachment: A Brief Report

The way an individual attends to social information has implications for his/her ability to regulate behavior in social settings. The results of the present investigation suggest that early experiences in parent–child relationships contribute to later differences in the deployment of attention to social information. The quality of the mother–child relationship was assessed at one‐year‐of‐age. At seven to eight years of age, a dot‐probe paradigm assessed immediate and delayed attention to pictures of faces vs. pictures of neutral objects. Children who were more avoidant with their mother in infancy attended to neutral objects over social stimuli at delayed but not immediate time frames. This finding suggests that individual differences in attention to social stimuli in childhood are associated with the quality of the prior attachment relationship with a primary caregiver.     

Effects of Provocation on Maltreated and Nonmaltreated Preschoolers' Understanding of Moral Transgressions

This study examined maltreated and nonmaltreated preschool children's judgments regarding hypothetical provoked and unprovoked moral transgressions. Maltreated children (17 physically abused and 19 neglected) and 19 matched nonmaltreated children rated the severity and deserved punishment and evaluated affective responses to six hypothetical moral transgressions which were depicted as both unprovoked and provoked by another child's actions. All children rated unprovoked transgressions as more serious and deserving of punishment and as eliciting more happiness and fear and less anger than transgressions that were depicted as provoked by another's actions. No gender or maltreatment status differences in ratings of transgression severity and deserved punishment were found; however, patterns of affective responses to hypothetical transgressions differed as a function of maltreatment subtype. Findings are discussed in terms of previous research on maltreatment and moral judgment development.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment: Developing a Bayesian Approach to Dichotomous Dose–Response Uncertainty

Model averaging for dichotomous dose–response estimation is preferred to estimate the benchmark dose (BMD) from a single model, but challenges remain regarding implementing these methods for general analyses before model averaging is feasible to use in many risk assessment applications, and there is little work on Bayesian methods that include informative prior information for both the models and the parameters of the constituent models. This article introduces a novel approach that addresses many of the challenges seen while providing a fully Bayesian framework. Furthermore, in contrast to methods that use Monte Carlo Markov Chain, we approximate the posterior density using maximum a posteriori estimation. The approximation allows for an accurate and reproducible estimate while maintaining the speed of maximum likelihood, which is crucial in many applications such as processing massive high throughput data sets. We assess this method by applying it to empirical laboratory dose–response data and measuring the coverage of confidence limits for the BMD. We compare the coverage of this method to that of other approaches using the same set of models. Through the simulation study, the method is shown to be markedly superior to the traditional approach of selecting a single preferred model (e.g., from the U.S. EPA BMD software) for the analysis of dichotomous data and is comparable or superior to the other approaches.     

COGNITIVE STYLE AND THE USEFULNESS OF INFORMATION*

The desirability of a merger/acquisition alternative depends in part on the perceptions of the decision maker. What sources of information are “useful” to the decision maker & Does the set of useful information remain constant for all decision makers; if not, do individuals using similar information sets have similar information processing characteristics? Do these sets vary as feedback is obtained during the decision process? To answer these questions, graduate students participated in a modified Delphi experiment, and the resulting data were analyzed by the two-way aligned-ranks nonparametric test. These test results affirm that in a merger/acquisition scenario, decision makers with different cognitive styles prefer different sets of information and these sets vary dynamically as feedback is incorporated in the decision-making process. Furthermore, information that contains worker and community welfare considerations is identified as “useful” five times more frequently by decision makers with a “feeling” cognitive style than those with a “thinking” style.     

CONCEPTS,THEORY, AND TECHNIQUES

The beta distribution is becoming more widely used in business applications and in economic model-building. A simple way to estimate the parameters of the univariate distribution and the general multivariate distribution would be useful but there appears to be no simple way of accomplishing this task. For example, the method of maximum likelihood does not yield tractable results. The method of moments presented in this paper is a practical way to obtain parameter estimates for the beta distribution. Explicit estimators are derived for the univariate and bivariate case and estimators are then inferred for the n-variate case. Empirical tests suggest that the method of moments may be used to establish useful estimates for these parameters. Also, estimates obtained by the method of moments may be used to develop bounds on the parameters so that computational techniques can be utilized with other estimation methods possessing more desirable properties.     

Evidence on the Superiority of Analysts Quarterly Earnings Forecasts for Small Capitalization Firms*

Financial analysts provide information to support investment analysis and decisions for an ever increasing number of firms. As part of their services they also produce earnings forecasts for covered firms. While there has been much research investigating the determinants of financial analyst earnings forecast superiority for large, widely-followed firms, little research has focused on smaller firms. Until recently, these smaller firms have been largely ignored. This study focuses exclusively on small firms and provides evidence of differing behavior for such firms compared to results previously reported for large firms. Errors in quarterly earnings per share forecasts of small firms obtained from a univariate time-series model are also examined. Regression results indicate that time-series model parameters possess information content with respect to forecast accuracy for analyst-covered firms only. These results are obtained after controlling for firm size, model adequacy, and industry, quarter, and year effects. This suggests that analysts are more likely to cover small firms for which they are able to decipher information correlated with that impounded in the “shocks” in the quarterly earnings time series as captured by the time-series model parameters.     

Planning Forward by Looking Backward: Retrospective Thinking in Strategic Decision Making*

Retrospective thinking occurs whenever one remembers something from the past, but one can also think retrospectively about hypothetical future events, by imagining that the event has already transpired and then working backward in the mind from the future toward the present. Designers, artists, planners, and other creative individuals utilize retrospective thinking when they mentally envision the object they wish to create and then thinkabout how it might be constructed. Some theorists and some previous research have suggested that forward and backward thinking are different cognitive processes, but there has been little investigation on the nature of these differences. This article examines the literature and describes a laboratory study designed to investigate retrospective thinking as a technique for increased idea generation. Subjects (n=64) were professional planners and managers with an average business experience of over 20 years. In a planning task, significantly more ideas were generated in the retrospective thinking mode than in the prospective mode, but the ideas were not found to be of greater quality. Evidence emerged that a subset of subjects were better able to make use of the retrospective technique, suggesting that selection along with training may be appropriate for the technique's mosteffective use.