Consistent Testing of Cointegrating Relationships

In this paper we investigate methods for testing the existence of a cointegration relationship among the components of a nonstationary fractionally integrated (NFI) vector time series. Our framework generalizes previous studies restricted to unit root integrated processes and permits simultaneous analysis of spurious and cointegrated NFI vectors. We propose a modified F‐statistic, based on a particular studentization, which converges weakly under both hypotheses, despite the fact that OLS estimates are only consistent under cointegration. This statistic leads to a Wald‐type test of cointegration when combined with a narrow band GLS‐type estimate. Our semiparametric methodology allows consistent testing of the spurious regression hypothesis against the alternative of fractional cointegration without prior knowledge on the memory of the original series, their short run properties, the cointegrating vector, or the degree of cointegration. This semiparametric aspect of the modelization does not lead to an asymptotic loss of power, permitting the Wald statistic to diverge faster under the alternative of cointegration than when testing for a hypothesized cointegration vector. In our simulations we show that the method has comparable power to customary procedures under the unit root cointegration setup, and maintains good properties in a general framework where other methods may fail. We illustrate our method testing the cointegration hypothesis of nominal GNP and simple‐sum (M1, M2, M3) monetary aggregates.     

Measuring feelings about choices and risks: The Berlin Emotional Responses to Risk Instrument (BERRI)

We introduce a brief instrument specifically validated for measuring positive and negative feelings about risks—the Berlin Emotional Responses to Risk Instrument (BERRI). Based on seven studies involving diverse adults from three countries (n = 2120), the BERRI was found to robustly estimate anticipatory affective reactions derived from subjective evaluations of positive (i.e., assured, hopeful, and relieved) and negative emotions (i.e., anxious, afraid, and worried). The brief BERRI outperformed a 14-item assessment, uniquely tracking costs/benefits associated with cancer screening among men and women (Studies 1 and 2). Predictive validity was further documented in paradigmatic risky choice studies wherein options varied over probabilities and severities across six contexts (health, social, financial, technological, ethical, and environmental; Study 3). Studies 4–6, conducted during the Ebola epidemic and COVID-19 pandemic, indicated BERRI responses were sensitive to subtle effects caused by emotion-related framing manipulations presented in different cultures and languages (the United States, Spain, and Poland). Study 7 indicated BERRI responses remained stable for 2 weeks. Although the BERRI can provide an estimate of overall affect, choices were generally better explained by the unique influences of positive and negative affect. Overall, results suggest the novel, brief instrument can be an efficient tool for high-stakes research on decision making and risk communication.     

Transnational social protection infrastructures: African migrants in Mexico

In the past years, increasingly restrictive migration policies have pushed many migrants to seek new and more risky migration routes. Many studies have investigated aspects of social protection for migrants from the Global South in industrialized countries of the Global North, with powerful welfare states. Yet, such focus has failed to understand the complexities during the migration process, where people often spend uncertain periods of time in transit countries and the state is frequently absent. In these contexts, social protection is predominantly provided by the third sector (TS) and informal networks both nationally and transnationally. Based on ethnographic fieldwork conducted with African migrants and TS organizations in Mexico, this paper explores the different and often semi-formal relationships between the TS, the state, and the migrants that result in complex transnational social protection infrastructures to cover the migrants' basic social protection needs.