Evaluating the causal economic impacts of transport investments: evidence from the Madrid–Barcelona high speed rail corridor

This paper evaluates economic impacts arising from the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR) between Madrid and Barcelona. Using difference-in-differences estimation we estimate an average treatment effect for provinces with stops on the HSR line of 2.4% for economic output, 3.3% for numbers of firms, and 1.1% for labour productivity. We complement our DID results with a synthetic control analysis for Lleida and Tarragona, two provinces that we argue were assigned HSR stations largely due to their incidental location. We find that both the number of firms and labour productivity are substantially higher in these provinces than in their synthetic counterparts.     

Effect of cigarette smoking on sexual functions,psychological factors,and disease activity in male patients with ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: This study aims to investigate the effect of smoking on sexual functions in AS patients.

Patients and methods: A total of 67 male AS patients with a median age of 34 years (range: 18–57) reporting sexual activity at least for the past 4 weeks period were included. Patients were divided into smokers (Group 1, n?=?47) and non-smokers (Group 2, n?=?20). Fagerström test for nicotine dependence, smoking history, exhaled carbon monoxide test were recorded for smoking AS patients. Visual analogue scale (VAS), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Metrology Index (BASMI), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI), Ankylosing Spondylitis Quality of Life (ASQoL), International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were filled for both groups.

Results: There was no significant difference between smokers and non-smokers in all evaluation parameters. BASMI scores were significantly lower in the mild dependency subgroup as compared to those with moderate or severe dependency (p?=?.005 and p?=?.007, respectively). Total IIEF score and IIEF categories correlated significantly with BASDAI, BASFI, BASMI, ASQoL, pain, fatigue, and cumulative smoking. BDI showed an inverse correlation with the IIEF score and IIEF category (p?r?=?–0.520, p?r?=?–0.508, respectively).

Conclusions: Sexual function in AS patients is associated with the pain, fatigue, disease activity, functional status, quality of life, depression as well as the cumulative exposure to smoking, and that sexual functions tend to decline with increasing degree of cigarette dependency.     

The Aversion to Tampering with Nature (ATN) Scale: Individual Differences in (Dis)comfort with Altering the Natural World

People differ in their comfort with tampering with the natural world. Although some see altering nature as a sign of human progress, others see it as dangerous or hubristic. Across four studies, we investigate discomfort with tampering with the natural world. To do so, we develop the Aversion to Tampering with Nature (ATN) Scale, a short scale that is the first to directly measure this discomfort. We identify six activities that people believe tamper with nature (geoengineering, genetically modified organisms, pesticides, cloning, gene therapy, and nanoparticles) and show that ATN scores are associated with opposition to these activities. Furthermore, the ATN Scale predicts actual behavior: donations to an anti-tampering cause. We demonstrate that ATN is related to previously identified constructs including trust in technology, naturalness bias, purity values, disgust sensitivity, aversion to playing God, and environmental beliefs and values. By illuminating who is concerned about tampering with nature and what predicts these beliefs, the ATN Scale provides opportunities to better understand public opposition to technological innovations, consumer preferences for “natural” products, and strategies for science communication.     

The Effect of Evaluator Masculinity on Dyadic Hiring Decisions

Gender Issues - Research examining gender disparities in the workplace tends to focus on individual behavior rather than the behavior of teams or dyads, yet important workplace decisions such as...     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

When the Norwegian child-welfare services get involved: parents making sense of referrals

There is limited research exploring parents' views and understanding of referrals to the child-welfare services (CWS). This study explores parents' understanding of the circumstances leading to a child-welfare referral, and their understanding of the reporter's objectives in making the referral. Qualitative content analysis and frequency analysis was performed on open-ended survey responses from a sample of 683 Norwegian parents in contact with the CWS. The results showed that the majority (60.2%) of the parents perceived the referral to be initiated solely because of parental difficulties and multiple family life stressors. Some of the parents (22.8%) believed the referrals were initiated exclusively because of their children's problems, whereas a few (13.3%) perceived it to be a combination of parental/familial difficulties and children's problems. The findings reveal that close to half of the parents (46.4%) felt the objective of the person making the referral was to help the child, their parents and the family. Some (36.5%) saw it as a routine or mandated action by public or official services, while others (18.7%) reported that they did not know why referrals had been made, or gave no answer to the question. A small group of parents (6%) viewed the referral as an act of harassment. The main implications of these findings are discussed.     

Sequential Monte Carlo for rare event estimation

This paper discusses a novel strategy for simulating rare events and an associated Monte Carlo estimation of tail probabilities. Our method uses a system of interacting particles and exploits a Feynman-Kac representation of that system to analyze their fluctuations. Our precise analysis of the variance of a standard multilevel splitting algorithm reveals an opportunity for improvement. This leads to a novel method that relies on adaptive levels and produces, in the limit of an idealized version of the algorithm, estimates with optimal variance. The motivation for this theoretical work comes from problems occurring in watermarking and fingerprinting of digital contents, which represents a new field of applications of rare event simulation techniques. Some numerical results show performance close to the idealized version of our technique for these practical applications.