Bayesian break-point forecasting in parallel time series,with application to university admissions

A regular supply of applicants to Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario is provided by 65 high schools. Each high school can be characterized by a series of grading standards which change from year to year. To aid admissions decisions, it is desirable to forecast the current year's grading standards for all 65 high schools using grading standards estimated from past year's data. We develop and apply a Bayesian break-point time-series model that generates forecasts which involve smoothing across time for each school and smoothing across schools. “Break point” refers to a point in time which divides the past into the “old past” and the “recent past” where the yearly observations in the recent past are exchangeable with the observations in the year to be forecast. We show that this model works fairly well when applied to 11 years of Queen's University data. The model can be applied to other data sets with the parallel time-series structure and short history, and can be extended in several ways to more complicated structures.     

Family Therapy Following the Death of a Child*

The reactions of the entire family system to the death of a child are examined. The case illustrates therapeutic interventions dealing with changes in family structure, guilt and mourning processes in parents, anxiety and other reactions of children, and the cognitive confusion of both children and adults. The problems for the therapist in working with a family following the death of a child are discussed.     

Gambling: A Social Problem?

This paper reports the results from a national survey of gambling behavior, social problems, and attitudes toward the legalization of gambling. Non-bettors perceived more negative consequences and fewer positive consequences associated with the legalization of gambling than did bettors. One negative consequence perceived by a majority of both groups was an increase in political corruption. The level of gambling activity was positively associated with several social problems such as divorce, absenteeism, and frequency of alcohol consumption. Respondents who were classified as probable compulsive gamblers reported more family problems.     

ASSERTION VERSUS INTERROGATION FORMAT IN OPINION SURVEYS QUESTIONS ENHANCE THOUGHTFUL RESPONDING

Two surveys on ostensibly new consumer products were administeredin order to assess the impact of presenting opinion items inan interrogation versus an assertion format. In addition tomanipulating the format of the opinion item, the back groundinformation about the product was varied so that it presentedeither a strong or a weak product attribute. In both surveys,opinions in response to the interrogation items were more polarizedthan those in response to the assertion items. These resultssuggest that the interrogation opinion format elicits more thoughtfulresponses than the assertion format.     

Counseling minors without parental consent

Counseling services provided to minors without parental knowledge or consent are based on uncertain and often conflicting policies and procedures. This article examines these services from legal and psychological perspectives, explores current agency policies and practices, and makes recommendations with regard to the counseling needs and rights of minors.