A Survey of Approaches for Assessing and Managing the Risk of Extremes

In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where extreme events are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include: guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.     

A systems theory approach to career decision making

Many career development studies have linked career indecision, an inability to make a decision about the vocation one wishes to pursue, to interpersonal and intrapersonal processes. Systems theory can help to explain the processes behind these concepts in a way that other theories have not been able to explain. Systems Theory Framework, (STF, Patton and McMahon, 1997), incorporates both the contextual system, e.g., parents and peers, and the individual system (i.e., STF's content component). Process, the second component, identifies the presence of recursive interaction processes within the individual and the context, as well as, between the individual and the context. STF brings back the value of interdependence. Specific systemic constructs are useful in career decision-making and can add a practical dimension on to the counseling process.     

The Enduring Price of Place: Revisiting the Rural Cost of Living☆

Even as the 2016 elections brought increased public attention to rural life, stereotypes and misconceptions abound. One of these misperceptions is the generalization that prices are lower in rural areas. This article is a restudy of Zimmerman, Ham, and Frank (2008) research on geographic differences in the costs of living. Asking the same fundamental question—if someone bought the same thing in a rural and urban area, would they pay the same price?—and using the same methodology, the results 10 years later indicate that, contrary to popular perception, there was again no consistent pattern of lower prices in rural counties and no consistent pattern of a lower rural cost of living in all of the rural areas. While prices are only one piece of the larger picture of how rural households meet their needs, in addition to price differences, the results highlight how differences in rural life create additional costs that extend beyond prices.     

Family engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic: Opportunities and challenges for school social work

The COVID-19 pandemic brought dramatic changes in schooling in the United States and across the world, including abrupt shifts to remote learning, immediate cessation of social contact, intensive family engagement in education and diminished school capacity for social–emotional supports. While the initial national lockdown was temporary, the long-lasting effects of the pandemic on society are still being revealed. This study contributes to a growing body of research exploring and documenting shifts in school social work practice in the United States during the COVID era. We used qualitative methods to explore how school social workers (SSWers) practised family engagement during the pandemic and their perceptions of the benefits and challenges of increased family engagement. Analysis of interviews with 20 SSWers from three US states (Colorado, Minnesota and Nevada) revealed five primary themes: reasons for family engagement, ways of engaging with families, frequency of family contact, challenges in engaging families and SSWers' attitudes and perceptions about family engagement. Results indicated a need for a comprehensive, organized and strategic family engagement plan in schools as we move into the post-acute phases of the pandemic. Future research should explore how SSWers may serve as leaders in the development of such plans and how interprofessional practice might advance this agenda further.     

Does Observed Conflict Recovery Play a Role in Adolescent Dating Aggression?

In a study of conflict recovery and adolescent dating aggression, 14- to 18-year-old couples (N = 209 dyads) participated in a 1-hr observational assessment. Negative behavior was observed during conflict-evoking “hot” tasks and in a “cooldown” task. Physical and psychological dating aggression were assessed via questionnaires. Negative behavior measured in the cooldown task was not associated with dating aggression after controlling for carryover effects of negativity from the hot to cooldown tasks. Moreover, cooldown negativity moderated the associations of hot task negativity and dating aggression. Actor and partner effects were disentangled via dyadic data analyses. Given the paucity of observational studies of dating aggression, our findings are an important contribution to the literature and in need of replication and extension.     

Experiences of child welfare social workers in addressing substance use among maltreated young mothers to prevent child maltreatment

Substance use during the perinatal period and while parenting can pose a significant risk to children's safety and well-being. Mothers who have experienced child maltreatment are more likely to use substances than mothers without a history of maltreatment. This study explores how child welfare social workers experience supporting young, maltreated mothers struggling with substance use to prevent the intergenerational transmission of child maltreatment. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with four social workers working with young mothers with a history of maltreatment and substance use. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis revealed two themes: (1) grappling with system challenges and (2) supporting strategies for disrupting intergenerational transmission of child maltreatment. The results highlight the need for systemic changes around support for social workers who work with young mothers who use substances and have a history of maltreatment, and substance use treatment and mental health programs themselves. Mothers need access to prenatal programs that are trauma-informed, non-judgemental and that support participants' basic needs and parenting skills.     

Child of two worlds: How foster care workers perceive their skills in dealing with worldview differences in foster care

Foster children often encounter worldview differences between their foster family and their birth family, for example, when participating in religious activities and practices. Foster children not only have a right to continuity in upbringing but also consistency in worldview, culture and language. Good co-parenting relationships are important for their identity development. For these reasons, foster care workers are entrusted with the task of supporting the triadic relationship of the foster child, birth parents and foster parents in dealing with worldview differences. Based on in-depth interviews with foster care workers (n = 16) six skills in dealing with worldview differences can be distinguished: (1) basic knowledge of worldviews and identity formation; (2) empathizing with the other; (3) inquisitiveness to discover what is essential for the other; (4) initiating worldview conversations and keeping them going; (5) fostering self-reflection in worldview; and (6) manoeuvring between and monitoring all interests. It is helpful if birth parents are well-informed in advance about the impact of worldview differences and if foster care workers and foster parents are aware of the identity and developmental needs of foster children to explore the worldview of the foster family and the birth family.