RATIONAL HEURISTICS? EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIORS IN EVOLVING ECONOMIES WITH HETEROGENEOUS INTERACTING AGENTS

We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information, coordination hurdles, and structural breaks. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learning rules. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second-best option but rather “rational” responses in complex and changing macroeconomic environments. (JEL C63, D8, E32, E6, O4)     

Expectations of Career Counseling and Their Effect on Client Satisfaction

Although there has been growing attention to clients' expectations of career counseling, more research is necessary to clarify the role of these expectations in shaping client satisfaction at the end of the intervention. On the basis of expectation confirmation theory, this study examined the indirect effect of clients' initial expectations on overall satisfaction through the perceived performance and final confirmation of expectations. We also explored whether this indirect effect is dependent on counselors' initial expectations. Longitudinal data were collected on 83 counselor-client dyads involved in a career counseling intervention in northeast Italy. Results confirmed that clients' initial expectations predicted overall satisfaction with the intervention through the subsequent mediation of perceived performance and confirmation of clients' expectations. The moderating role of the counselors' initial expectations was not confirmed. These findings imply that career counselors should invest their efforts in managing clients' expectations.     

Governance Considerations for Seeker–Solver Relationships: A Knowledge‐Based Perspective in Crowdsourcing for Innovation Contests

The need to solve innovation problems and insource knowledge has led to an increasing number of organizations engaging in crowdsourcing activities and subsequently establishing working relationships with winning solution providers. Using a knowledge‐based view and the problem‐solving perspective, we develop a theoretical framework suggesting how specific innovation problem attributes (i.e. the decomposability, formulation and search space of the problem) influence the governance decision (unilateral vs. bilateral) of seekers to manage the relationship with winning solvers. We empirically analyse the framework using 582 challenges broadcast on the NineSigma crowdsourcing platform. Our results indicate that problem attributes – the formulation and search space of the problem – have a positive effect on seekers’ preference towards unilateral governance structures. However, we did not find any empirical confirmation of the effect that the decomposability of the innovation problem has on seekers’ preference towards unilateral governance structures. This study offers several contributions to the crowdsourcing literature, and also has important implications for managers of organizations aiming to insource knowledge through crowdsourcing for innovation contests.     

Vertical and Horizontal Inequality in Ecuador: The Lack of Sustainability

We analyse the evolution of vertical and horizontal inequality in Ecuador in the long-run (1990–2016), as well as during and after the recent commodities boom (2005–2014). Using data from censuses, living standard measurement surveys, and employment surveys we show that Ecuador has made significant progress in reducing inequality, particularly since 2000. However, inequality has not decreased further since 2011. We argue that a key factor behind the reduction and ensuing stagnation of inequality is the dynamic of oil revenues, particularly regarding its effect on economic growth and on the financing of redistributive policies. Using the decomposition of the Gini coefficient by income source proposed by Lerman and Yitzhaki (Rev Econ Stat 67:151–156, 1985) we show that during the last decade there has been a shift away from market sources towards sources of income derived from government expenditures. Following the end of the commodities boom, this process is no longer sustainable. Indeed, we show that the underlying causes that led to the change in the sources of income started long before the end of the boom. The temporary shock following the 2008 financial crisis already affected the structure of Ecuador’s public finances and its current account. And, since around 2011, its institutions and labour market indicators have also deteriorated. We conclude that sustainable inequality reductions require improving the current institutions.

     

SEPARATING BETWEEN UNOBSERVED CONSUMER TYPES: EVIDENCE FROM AIRLINES

We propose an alternative approach to identify unobserved consumer types and assess whether firms price discriminate. Unlike other screening schemes that rely on quantity discounts or product differentiation, in our finite mixture structure individuals have unit demands and the product is homogeneous. We implement the model using an original U.S. airlines data set. The results support the existence of two demand types. The high‐type “business” traveler is less price sensitive, has a higher valuation, and pays a higher price than the low type “tourist.” The proportion of high types also increases as the departure date nears. (JEL C23, L93, R41)     

Factors Constraining Building Effective and Fair Geographical Indications for Coffee: Insights from a Dominican Case Study

The commodity nature of green coffee is the main cause of the ‘coffee paradox’ (falling producer prices and rising consumer prices). Geographical Indications (GIs) may be an effective ‘decommodifier’ of the coffee market, but many constraints have to be overcome. Based on an analysis of how the characteristics of the coffee production system shape the positions of local stakeholders and, thus, the GI building process, this article identifies some constraining factors that can seriously undermine the capacity the GI has to decommodify the market and attain a fairer distribution of the benefits for local producers.     

Bringing Cognition Back In and Moving Forward

Journal of Management and Governance -     

A fuzzy logic approach to poverty analysis based on the Gini and Bonferroni inequality indices

In the poverty analysis framework, a great deal of attention has been paid to the poverty measurement in terms of monetary variables, such as income or consumption. In this context, a relevant open problem is connected with the distinction between poor and non-poor. In fact, the concept of poverty is rather vague and cannot be defined in a clear way. In this respect, following a fuzzy logic approach, some new poverty measures are proposed. In particular, the fuzzy extension of two existing poverty measures based on the Gini and Bonferroni inequality indices is provided. Some synthetic and real applications are given in order to show how the proposed poverty measures work.     

Genetic algorithms for the analysis of Bayesian hierarchical partition models

Hierarchical partition models (see Malec and Sedransk, 1992, Consonni and Veronese, 1995) aim at finding an optimal grouping (partition) of a set of experiments regarding a target variable. In this class of models the partition is regarded as an unknown parameter, and one of the main goals is computing the posterior distribution over the class of the possible partitions. This problem has been addressed in Sampietro and Veronese (1998), where a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is applied. In this paper the performance of an alternative procedure, based on the logic of genetic algorithms, is evaluated. The results of the two approaches are compared, even if a conjoint use of them is to be advised.