“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?

The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts--Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. They were asked what a "30% chance of rain tomorrow" means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. The preferred interpretation in Europe was that it will rain tomorrow "30% of the time," followed by "in 30% of the area." To improve risk communication with the public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a single-event probability refers.     

Changes in psychosocial and work-related characteristics among Clubhouse members: a preliminary report

The aim of this study was to explore the changes in work-related abilities of members after attending the Clubhouse program for 12 weeks. The extent to which the changes would contribute to members' performance on simulated work tasks was also investigated. A total of 39 people with mental illnesses, primarily schizophrenia, attending Phoenix Clubhouse participated in the study. Seventeen were newly recruited members to the Clubhouse. The other 22, who served as the control group, were existing members who had been attending the Clubhouse for more than three months. All the participants were assessed by the McCarron-dial System (Observational Emotional Inventory-Revised, McCarron Assessment of Neuromuscular Development), Cognistat, Chinese Work Personality Profile, WHO Disability Assessment Schedule and WHOQOL-Bref-HK at the baseline and 12 weeks after attending the Clubhouse program. They were required to complete a set of simulated work tasks after 12 weeks. New members showed significant improvement in emotional-coping abilities (impulsive-frustration and depression-withdrawal) and work personality (task orientation, social skills, and team work) after attending the Clubhouse program for 12 weeks. The increase in emotional-coping skills (depression-withdrawal) was found to contribute to better performance on typing tasks, whereas emotional coping (anxiety) contributed to better performance on cleansing tasks. Three months' participation in the Clubhouse program appears to have positive effects on emotional-coping abilities and work personality. The emotional-coping abilities were found to predict good performance in simulated clerical and maintenance jobs. Recommendations and suggestions for further research are discussed.     

Construct validity of the instrument DOA: a dialogue about ability related to work

This study examined the construct validity of the newly developed instrument A Dialogue About Ability Related To Work (DOA). DOA [18] was developed using concepts from the Model of Human Occupation [20] as theoretical framework. The instrument assumes the assessment of work ability by both the client and the occupational therapist, and is followed by a dialogue which is expected to distinguish possible goal-setting for further rehabilitation [18,19]. Twenty-one professionals and 126 clients from three clinics in Sweden participated in the study. All clients were involved as outpatients in psychiatric work rehabilitation in county councils or community services. Results of a Rasch analysis test indicated that items are well separated and generally work together in five unidimensional continuums to measure work ability. Twenty-nine of 34 items showed goodness-of-fit statistics, which means acceptable infit MnSq values from > or = 0.6 to < or = 1.4 in association with Z values from -2 to 2. The five misfit items have to be revised. The study has indicated that DOA is a valid instrument in psychiatric work rehabilitation and ought to be useful in the dialogue between occupational therapists and clients about goalsetting and treatment planning.     

Child and adolescent bereavement

Clinical social workers in non-medical settings often are presented with child and adolescent clinets who are bereaved, or with adults who experienced the loss of a significant other in childhood or adolescence. This article attempts to pull together the most relevant and significant issues relating to loss in childhood and adolescence. It provides an overview of the theoretical and treatment issues that inform practice with clients who have sustained a significant loss during the pre-adult years. Case material provides an illustration of some of the issues as they appear in clinical practice.     

Predictors of Nursing Home Admission: A Social Work Perspective

Abstract

Institutionalisation of geriatric patients is a growing trend in ageing societies, such as Singapore. Earlier studies focused on the sociodemographic profile and attributes of nursing home residents and applications, but neglected to address the predictors of nursing home admission from a social work perspective. The present retrospective study identifies independent risk factors that predispose a patient to a nursing home discharge from a general rehabilitation ward in a community hospital in Singapore, with a multidisciplinary emphasis on clinical intervention. Factor analysis results reinforced findings that functional impairment and dementia are consistent predictors of nursing home admission. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that positive predictors of nursing home admission include older age, length of hospital stay, low socioeconomic status, dementia, and functional disability. Social work interventions include early referrals to the medical social worker, so that options for social and family support can be explored prior to deciding to place patients in a nursing home. Other interventions include suitable family therapy and counselling for patients and their families.     

Collegiate-Based Emergency Medical Service: Impact on Alcohol-Related Emergency Department Transports at a Small Liberal Arts College

Abstract

Objective: The authors examined the impact of a collegiate-based emergency medical service (CBEMS) on the frequency of emergency department (ED) transports. Participants: Students transported to the ED for acute alcohol intoxication during the Fall 2008 and the Fall 2009 semesters (N = 50). Methods: The frequency of students receiving transportation to a hospital ED and the reported blood alcohol content (BAC) levels during the initial operational semester of the CBEMS were compared to those values over the same time period the previous year. Results: More than twice the number of students was transported to the ED following the introduction of CBEMS. There was no change in mean BAC levels. Conclusions: CBEMS could promote a culture conducive to increased reporting behavior, which makes the campus safer. Similar BAC levels suggest that the degree of intoxication was similar for the 2 reporting periods, but students sought emergency assistance more frequently following the inception of CBEMS.     

Conceptual Model and Map of Financial Exploitation of Older Adults

This article describes the processes and outcomes of three-dimensional concept mapping to conceptualize financial exploitation of older adults. Statements were generated from a literature review and by local and national panels consisting of 16 experts in the field of financial exploitation. These statements were sorted and rated using Concept Systems software, which grouped the statements into clusters and depicted them as a map. Statements were grouped into six clusters, and ranked by the experts as follows in descending severity: (a) theft and scams, (b) financial victimization, (c) financial entitlement, (d) coercion, (e) signs of possible financial exploitation, and (f) money management difficulties. The hierarchical model can be used to identify elder financial exploitation and differentiate it from related but distinct areas of victimization. The severity hierarchy may be used to develop measures that will enable more precise screening for triage of clients into appropriate interventions.