Estimation of Stigmatized Characteristics of a Hidden Gang in a Finite Population

This paper considers the problem of estimating the size and mean value of a stigmatized quantitative character of a hidden gang in a finite population. The proposed method may be applied to solve domestic problems in a particular country or across countries: for example, a government may be interested in estimating the average income of victims or perpetrators of domestic violence. The proposed method is based on the technique introduced by Warner (1965) to estimate the proportion of a sensitive attribute in a finite population without threatening the privacy of the respondents. Expressions for the bias and variance of the proposed estimators are given, to a first order of approximation. Circumstances in which the method can be applied are studied and illustrated using a numerical example.     

The Effects of Breastfeeding and Nutrition on Fecundability in Rural Bangladesh: A Hazards-Model Analysis

Data taken from the ‘Determinants of Natural Fertility’ study, Bangladesh, are used with multivariate hazard models to study variations in fecundability between women, especially the relationship between nutritional status, breastfeeding practices, and the monthly probability of conceiving. It is found that fecundability varies both between women of a given age and, for a particular woman, by age. The variation is related to four variables: separation, which affects coital frequency; age, which represents biological changes; lactation practices; and the duration of amenorrhoea. Nutrition above famine or starvation levels is not a significant determinant of fecundability. The most surprising finding is the effect of the pattern of breastfeeding on fecundability: as a menstruating woman begins to wean her child, her probability of conceiving increases as her serum prolactin, which inhibits ovulation, decreases. Thus, those menstruating women who are most likely to conceive are those who have completely weaned their infants in the very recent past.     

Prediction of disease status: A regressive model approach for repeated measures

In this paper, regressive models are proposed for modeling a sequence of transitions in longitudinal data. These models are employed to predict the future status of the outcome variable of the individuals on the basis of their underlying background characteristics or risk factors. The estimation of parameters and also estimates of conditional and unconditional probabilities are shown for repeated measures. The goodness of fit tests are extended in this paper on the basis of the deviance and the Hosmer–Lemeshow procedures and generalized to repeated measures. In addition, to measure the suitability of the proposed models for predicting the disease status, we have extended the ROC curve approach to repeated measures. The procedure is shown for the conditional models for any order as well as for the unconditional model, to predict the outcome at the end of the study. The test procedures are also suggested. For testing the differences between areas under the ROC curves in subsequent follow-ups, two different test procedures are employed, one of which is based on permutation test. In this paper, an unconditional model is proposed on the basis of conditional models for the disease progression of depression among the elderly population in the USA on the basis of the Health and Retirement Survey data collected longitudinally. The illustration shows that the disease progression observed conditionally can be employed to predict the outcome and the role of selected variables and the previous outcomes can be utilized for predictive purposes. The results show that the percentage of correct predictions of a disease is quite high and the measures of sensitivity and specificity are also reasonably impressive. The extended measures of area under the ROC curve show that the models provide a reasonably good fit in terms of predicting the disease status during a long period of time. This procedure will have extensive applications in the field of longitudinal data analysis where the objective is to obtain estimates of unconditional probabilities on the basis of series of conditional transitional models.     

Community and individual acceptance: family planning services in the Sudan

The Sudan Community-Based Health Project, initiated by the University of Khartoum in cooperation with the Ministry of Health in 1980, sought to test the proposition that government-trained village midwives could provide maternal-child health and birth spacing services in addition to their ongoing obstetrical duties. The project area encompassed 92,000 people in 93 villages. The 120 midwives serving the project area received training in 4 interventions -- oral rehydration therapy, maternal and child nutrition, immunization, and birth spacing -- and introduced these services by means of 3 rounds of household visits over a 5-month period. Comparison of pre- and post-intervention survey data indicates that village midwives can indeed be used successfully to promote not only contraceptive use, but also health attitudes and practices that are positively associated with fertility regulation. Between the 2 surveys, the percentage of women who ever used contraception increased from 22% to 28%, while the percentage of current users rose from 10% to 13%. Parity was significantly related to current use; each child born multiplied the likelihood of contraceptive acceptance (by a factor of 0.76 in the post-intervention sample). Maternal education was the socioeconomic variable that most enhanced receptivity to contraceptive acceptance after the project's interventions. In terms of community-level variables, village location along the Nile and proximity to a paved road were significant correlates of contraceptive use. When variables related to the project itself were analyzed, women with vaccinated children were found to be twice as likely to contracept as those with nonvaccinated children and women who believed breast feeding should be continued during diarrhea episodes were 1.5 times more likely to use birth spacing than those who did not. Although midwives did not specifically emphasize contraceptive use, it appears women who were encouraged by midwives to take positive steps in the area of child health were also likely to become more innovative in terms of fertility regulation.     

On the Dirichlet distributions on symmetric matrices

In this paper, we introduce a generalization of the Dirichlet distribution on symmetric matrices which represents the multivariate version of the Connor and Mosimann generalized real Dirichlet distribution. We establish some properties concerning this generalized distribution. We also extend to the matrix Dirichlet distribution a remarkable characterization established in the real case by Darroch and Ratcliff.     

Board size,director compensation,and firm transition across stock exchanges: evidence from Canada

Journal of Management and Governance - In this study, we examine the relationship between the role and compensation structure of non-executive directors when firms on the TSX Venture Exchange...     

Assessment of multidimensional poverty and effectiveness of microfinance-driven government and NGO projects in the rural Bangladesh

This paper has developed a multidimensional model usable in assessing economic, social, political and cultural dimensions of poverty by utilizing primary data collected from 78 villages in Bangladesh using a participatory approach. Employing the developed model, a comparative analysis has been performed between microfinance-driven government (GO) and NGO (non-government organization) projects to explore their relative effectiveness in enhancing wellbeing of the poor in rural Bangladesh. It is observed that GO agencies are more effective in enhancing ‘economic wellbeing’ of the poor, whereas NGOs are contributing more in the ‘social’ aspects of wellbeing. Findings also revealed that, as whole, GO agencies perform 42% better than NGOs in improving living standards of the rural poor which contradicts with the existing literature of poverty reduction projects in developing countries.     

Urban and peri-urban aquaculture as an immediate source of food fish: Perspectives of Dhaka City,Bangladesh

This paper describes the present status of aquaculture activities in Dhaka City and its surrounding areas including the system of fish marketing and distribution and environmental and socioeconomic issues. Dhaka City contains over 10 million people and is expanding day by day. Demand of fish in the last 10 years has increased as a result of increases in population and income levels. The annual per capita consumption of fish is reported to drop by 0.5 kg since 1985. The reason for this decline is increased prices and decreased supply of fish. Fish supply to the city comes from catch in the rivers-estuaries and floodlands of Dhaka district, neighboring districts, imports from other areas and aquaculture in surrounding areas of the city. Considerable quantities of fish are imported from India, Myanmar and Thailand. Seasonal patterns are common both in supply and consumption of fish. Along with traditional rural household aquaculture, in recent years, urban and peri-urban aquaculture has also been popular. Three broad types of aquaculture activities are found in and around Dhaka City; these are polyculture of carp in ponds, monoculture of catfishs in ponds, and pen and cage aquaculture in open waters. The carp includes both Indian major carp and Chinese carp and some minor carp. The catfish group includes mainly Thai pangas (Pangasius sutchi). Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) is also widely popular among the farmers. The technology used for aquaculture is improved extensive to semi-intensive. Increasing demand for fish in the city markets has encouraged the expansion of peri-urban aquaculture with a corresponding increase in the proportion of farmed fish in the markets.