Robust fitting of claim severity distributions and the method of trimmed moments

Many quantities arising in non-life insurance depend on claim severity distributions, which are usually modeled assuming a parametric form. Obtaining good estimates of the quantities, therefore, reduces to having good estimates of the model parameters. However, the notion of ‘good estimate’ depends on the problem at hand. For example, the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are efficient, but they generally lack robustness. Since outliers are common in insurance loss data, it is therefore important to have a method that allows one to balance between efficiency and robustness. Guided by this philosophy, in the present paper we suggest a general estimation method that we call the method of trimmed moments (MTM). This method is appropriate for various model-fitting situations including those for which a close fit in one or both tails of the distribution is not required. The MTM estimators can achieve various degrees of robustness, and they also allow the decision maker to easily see the actions of the estimators on the data, which makes them particularly appealing. We illustrate these features with detailed theoretical analyses and simulation studies of the MTM estimators in the case of location–scale families and several loss distributions such as lognormal and Pareto. As a further illustration, we analyze a real data set concerning hurricane damages in the United States from 1925 to 1995.     

Internal communication: Definition,parameters, and the future

As an organizational function, internal communication is gaining in importance, meriting a special issue on the topic. This importance is evident in many recent efforts among practitioners in Europe and the US to seek recognition of this field as an independent domain. Scholarship on internal communication has not kept pace with these initiatives. This introduction to the special issue addresses several key issues related to this topic and presents findings from a Delphi study of the leaders of European associations on internal communication. Results of the study are fuzzy: respondents see internal communication as interdisciplinary management function integrating elements of human resources management, communication and marketing, but at the same time they see it primarily as a part of the organization's communication function that is simultaneously managerial and technical. However, they contend that internal communication is an independent research field.     

Understanding Transit Asylum Migration: Evidence from Serbia

Due to its geographic location and borders along the European Union (EU), in recent years, the Republic of Serbia has faced an increased number of irregular migrants from third‐world countries claiming asylum on their way into a western EU member state. Some of these migrants stay for a while in asylum centres in Serbia to rest or renew contacts. In order to explore the main socio‐demographic features of the study population, their migration history and intentions, a questionnaire‐based research was conducted in Banja Kovilja?a asylum centre. The results also give insights into the underlying question “how” and the role of social networks in migration. Most of asylum seekers are unmarried males at peak working age, from countries affected by war and political turmoil. The results indicate this is a transit migration where, besides fleeing to safety, economic status and migration networks have a significant impact on migration flows.     

Residential care for children with intellectual disabilities in the social protection system in Serbia

This paper presents and discusses the characteristics of the social protection of children with intellectual disabilities who are placed in children's homes in Serbia. It draws on a survey that covered the entire population—586 users in all five institutions for children with intellectual disabilities who resided there in 2009. The analysis shows the heterogeneity of users in relation to age and degree of intellectual disability, their long-term stay in homes, the inadequate structural and functional standards, and insufficient health care. Residential care becomes the most common form of permanent rather than temporary care. These findings suggest the need for a number of strategies to be adopted, and the paper concludes by outlining potential ways forward.     

Types of separation-individuation in relation to mothers and fathers among young people entering adulthood

This paper presents a study on emerging adults’ separation-individuation in relation to parents from a person-centred perspective. The participants, aged 18 through 28 years (N?=?2040, 73% female), offered self-reports on separation-individuation in relation to their mother and father separately. We used the Individuation Test for Emerging Adults (Komidar, L., M. Zupan?i?, G. So?an, and M. Puklek Levpu??ek. 2014. “Development and construct validation of the Individuation Test for Emerging Adults (ITEA).” Journal of Personality Assessment 96 (5): 503–514), specifically designed to tap individuation issues in emerging adulthood. Clustering procedures revealed four internally replicable and structurally consistent types across parents, representing the current relationship dynamics of parent – child relationships. The consistency analysis of cross-parent type membership suggested that about a half of the participants were assigned to the same type of separation-individuation in relation to their mother and father. We considered the individuated-related and the individuated-independent type as healthy separated-individuated yet distinct types, whereas the anxious and the dependent type reflected likely difficulties in separation-individuation. The type membership was significantly associated with the participants’ age, gender, and adult role transitions.     

Forced migrations and Externalization of European Union Border Control: Serbia on the Balkan Migration Route

The article argues that the recent “migration crisis” has been constructed as a security threat to the European Union, which conceals both the multiple causes of forced migrations, and the inability of the Union to respond to the massive influx of people in need of protection. Serbia had taken up a “refugee-friendly” policy, which implied a humanitarian approach. However, due to a change of political discourse in connection with the EU accession, a shift towards the security position occurred. This article sheds light on the actual status of migrants and asylum seekers in Serbia, as well as the state response to the growing challenges in the area of acceptance and protection, following the official closure of the Balkan route. In the conclusion, the authors tentatively plead for return to a balanced humanitarian approach, since there is clear evidence that mixed migration flows will resume in the times to come.     

Recent Revision of the European Consumer Confidence Indicator: Is There any additional Space for Improvement?

Social Indicators Research - European Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) is conceptualized as a measure of prevailing consumer sentiment and a coincident indicator of private consumption. At the...     

Trust,scepticism, and social order: A contribution from the sociology of scientific knowledge

The sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), which studies the organisation and content of science, has made two original contributions to the understanding of social order at large. First, SSK scholars regard social order as a problem of establishing “cognitive order” and knowledge. A wealth of case studies has demonstrated that interpersonal trust is necessary to achieve agreement and shared perception among particular collectives of specialists. Second, SSK scholars insist that all types of cognitive order and knowledge, whether “scientific” or “lay,” are the result of socially organised scepticism being parasitic upon existing trust and background expectations (an argument that I call “the Parasitic View of Scepticism”). Sociologists with an interest in today's so‐called “knowledge” and “information” societies, and more specifically, in the social distribution and political uses of doubt and unknowns (including “post‐truth”), would benefit from adopting the Parasitic View of Scepticism and investigating the corrosive and generative consequences of scepticism on the trust relations and the cognitive/social order upon which it is based, in line with insights from the emerging fields of agnotology and the sociology of ignorance.     

The development of infants’ sensitivity to native versus non-native rhythm

Speech rhythm is considered one of the first windows into the native language, and the taxonomy of rhythm classes is commonly used to explain early language discrimination. Relying on formal rhythm classification is problematic for two reasons. First, it is not known to which extent infants’ sensitivity to language variation is attributable to rhythm alone, and second, it is not known how infants discriminate languages not classified in any of the putative rhythm classes. Employing a central-fixation preference paradigm with natural stimuli, this study tested whether infants differentially attend to native versus nonnative varieties that differ only in temporal rhythm cues, and both of which are rhythmically unclassified. An analysis of total looking time did not detect any rhythm preferences at any age. First-look duration, arguably more closely reflecting infants’ underlying perceptual sensitivities, indicated age-specific preferences for native versus non-native rhythm: 4-month-olds seemed to prefer the native-, and 6-month-olds the non-native language-variety. These findings suggest that infants indeed acquire native rhythm cues rather early, by the 4th month, supporting the theory that rhythm can bootstrap further language development. Our data on infants’ processing of rhythmically unclassified languages suggest that formal rhythm classification does not determine infants’ ability to discriminate language varieties.