An INAR(1) model based on a mixed dependent and independent counting series

A mixed integer-valued autoregressive model of order one, based on the binomial and the generalized binomial thinning operator is introduced. Geometric marginal distribution is considered. Properties of the model are analysed, unknown parameters are estimated and some numerical results of the estimates are obtained. Finally, model is applied on two real data sets and compared to some relevant models.     

Who are the Supporters of Croatian Membership in the European Union and NATO? Predictive Value of Personal and National Well-Being

Like many other Central and Eastern European countries Croatia has passed through substantial political changes and transition processes from state to liberal market economy in the last two decades. The next important step is accession to EU and NATO, and public opinion about joining these associations is divided. The aim of this study is to investigate the predictive value of subjective well-being measures in explaining attitudes of Croatian citizens toward accession to NATO and European Union. In particular, the prognostic utility of SWB is tested over and above usefulness of basic socio-demographic variables in explaining those political opinions. The research was conducted on a huge and representative sample (N = 4,000) of Croatian citizens in the spring of 2009. As a measure of subjective well-being, Croatian version of International Well-Being Index (IWI; Cummins in International Wellbeing Index, Version 2 [online]. Available from: , 2002) was used. IWI includes National and Personal Well-Being scales where each scale consists of several personal or national well-being domains. Socio-demographic variables used in this survey were gender, age, and level of education. Hierarchical logistic regression was applied to test the unique contribution of National and Personal well-being domains in predicting attitudes toward accession. The results show that National well-being index is useful in predicting attitudes toward accession of Croatia to EU and NATO, and has an even higher predictive value than basic socio-demographic variables. National well-being domains that significantly improve prediction were satisfaction with government and satisfaction with national economic situation. Higher satisfaction with national government is related to support of accession to both alliances, whereas higher satisfaction with national economy is associated solely with supporting the EU membership. The personal well-being index and belonging domains were not useful in this political attitude prediction. Possible theoretical explanation of observed relations between NWI and political opinion were further discussed.     

EU ideology

The idea of Europe was radically transformed after the accomplishment of the idea of European unification. The European Union (EU) and Europe at the beginning of the twenty-first century were defined by a broad common ideology that consists of ideologies such as antinationalism, social democracy, pacificism and environmentalism. These ideologies are presented by pro-EU scholars and politicians as ideologies rooted in European history and parts of European identity and as being mostly absent in the American policies. The emergence of EU ideology is traced in the relaunch of European integration in the mid-1980s and in Delors’ conflict with Thatcher. It is argued that the emergence of EU ideology is the result of two long-term historical developments: the deepening and enlargement of European integration; and the changing relations between the USA and Europe. It is concluded that the emergence of EU ideology resembles the emergence of nationalism and national ideologies.     

Crisis? What crisis?: How European professionals handle crises and crisis communication

A broad study in 43 European countries shows that 70% of communication professionals encounter at least one crisis a year, mostly institutional, related to the performance of the organization or a crisis in management or leadership. Organizational response and image restoration approaches are mainly based on information, sympathy and defense strategies. Traditional media relations and personal communication are the most important instruments used in crisis communication, while social media is used less often. The variation of crisis types, responses and instruments across European regions and types of organization indicate that economic and cultural aspects play a role in defining a crisis and communicating about it.     

The impact of high-stakes school admission exams on study achievements: quasi-experimental evidence from Slovakia

We explore whether and to what extent the presence of high-stakes admission exams to selective schools affects student achievement, presumably through more intensive study effort. Our identification strategy exploits a quasi-experimental feature of a reform in Slovakia that shifted the school grade during which high-stakes exams are taken by 1 year. This reform enables us to compare students at the moment when they pass these exams with students in the same grade 1 year ahead of the exams. Using data from the low-stakes international TIMSS skills survey and employing difference-in-difference methodology, we find that the occurrence of high-stakes admission exams increased 10-year-old students’ math test scores by 0.2 standard deviations, on average. This effect additionally accrues by around 0.05 standard deviations among students with the highest probability of being admitted to selective schools. Although we find similar effects for both genders, there are indications that high-stakes exams in more competitive environments affect girls more than boys.     

Path analysis and determining the distribution of indirect effects via simulation

The difference between a path analysis and the other multivariate analyses is that the path analysis has the ability to compute the indirect effects apart from the direct effects. The aim of this study is to investigate the distribution of indirect effects that is one of the components of path analysis via generated data. To realize this, a simulation study has been conducted with four different sample sizes, three different numbers of explanatory variables and with three different correlation matrices. A replication of 1000 has been applied for every single combination. According to the results obtained, it is found that irrespective of the sample size path coefficients tend to be stable. Moreover, path coefficients are not affected by correlation types either. Since the replication number is 1000, which is fairly large, the indirect effects from the path models have been treated as normal and their confidence intervals have been presented as well. It is also found that the path analysis should not be used with three explanatory variables. We think that this study would help scientists who are working in both natural and social sciences to determine sample size and different number of variables in the path analysis.     

A geometric time-series model with an alternative dependent Bernoulli counting series

In this article, we first introduce an alternative way for construction of the generalized binomial thinning operator with dependent counting series. Some properties of this thinning operator are derived and discussed. Then, by using this thinning operator, we introduce an integer-valued time-series model with geometric marginals. Some conditional and unconditional properties of this model are derived and discussed. Some estimation methods are considered and for some of them, asymptotic properties of the obtained estimates are derived. Performances of the estimates are discussed through some simulations. Finally, a real data example is considered and the goodness-of-fit of this model is compared with the models based on the binomial, negative binomial, and dependent binomial thinning operators.     

An extension on INAR models with discrete Laplace marginal distributions

The main theme considered in this article is an integer-valued thinning operator with both positive and negative values, its properties, and a new time series with skew discrete Laplace marginals. Some properties of this model are discussed, as well as estimators of unknown parameters, similarities and differences with some other existing models, applications in real-life situations, and identification and approximation of latent processes affecting the concerning process.