Self-generated fertility waves in a non-linear continuous overlapping generations model

In this paper, Samuelson's simplified version of the Easterlin theory (Samuelson 1976) is extended to a continuous-time model with three age groups. This approach enables one to apply the qualitative theory of non-linear differential equations to show the existence of Easterlin-type cycles. In contrast to the discrete time model we obtain information about the period length of the cycle.This research was supported by the Austrian Science Foundation under grant P6601.     

The impact of international migration on fertility: an econometric population model

The authors develop an econometric model to examine the impact of migration on fertility in Greece in the period 1968-1986. In the model, the fertility equation is considered within a simultaneous equation system, and international migration is included as an explanatory factor of both fertility and per capita income. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Training with o (observing) and T (treatment) teams in live supervision: reflections in the looking glass*

Working with a treatment and observing team at the same time, behind the oneway mirror, offers a variety of ways to: (a) generate multiple realities; (b) work with two different models of family therapy simultaneously; and (c) provide feedback on the teams' own roles, rules and group process. The process that 6 trainees and two supervisors used with T and O teams to examine their own coevolution as a therapeutic system using the Milan model of family therapy and Ericksonian hypnotherapy is described. The article concludes with a discussion of the advantages and pitfalls of this type of dual supervision.     

Demographic behavior: controlled fertility

The current status of fertility and its control in France is reviewed. Consideration is given to changes in contraceptive usage, nuptiality, educational status and fertility, birth timing and spacing, and female labor force participation. The author notes that fertility has not declined significantly since the mid-1970s. Fertility differentials by geographical region and occupation are also considered.     

Data collection: are social workers reliable?

Social workers are required to collect a considerable amount of personal information about clients and their families which may be unrelated to direct clinical work. Administrators often use this for the purpose of payment, service documentation, agency planning, and accountability. The worker's concern about the appropriateness of collecting this data may result in poor compliance or even falsification of information. In a survey of Minnesota social workers, noncompliance with data collection requirements was substantial. The authors also found a significant degree of conflict about privacy and confidentiality issues. These findings suggest a basis of concern for those who must rely on accurate data for administrative planning.     

Temporary versus permanent population mobility in Melanesia: a case study from Vanuatu

A case study of temporary and circular Melanesian population mobility and labor migration focuses on the island of Paama in the Republic of Vanuatu (an archipelago of 80 islands) in Melanesia and on urbanization, which is a relatively recent phenomena. A critical analysis is provided of temporary and permanent migration and methodological inadequacies in explanations of mobility. Mobility is neither a cause nor a result of economic, social, and political change; it is the interrelationship among the general structural setting, people's personal and social environment, and their perceptions and actions. In the case of Paamese mobility, changes appeared in the source of migration and destination areas. There was a period of original land acquisition, when migrants returning from Queensland with tools were the only ones who could actually acquire land. Inequalities of land access date from this period. The population is dependent on external income sources as well as the need for plantation migration and a huge increase in bridewealth. Concurrently, "kampani" or community work, which ensures the continuous authority of local chiefs and village elders, creates problems for those seeking work for their own families. These conditions encourage out-migration. Rapid urban growth began in the 1960s with a diversified economy. Employment opportunities were available for women; single employee residence spaces declined. This meant families could permanently settle in urban areas. Retirement benefits were also available and contributed to securing permanent migration. There were growing needs for a stable, skilled labor force. Another change was the abolishment of the tripartite colonial administration. Rural disasters and price declines also triggered urban migration. Migration to the town of Port Vila by Paamese men and women between 1953 and 1982 is analyzed, based on 258 employment related mobility histories collected in 1982-83. Two processes are evident: continued periodic, short-term, rural-based circulation and permanent urban migration among Paamese to Port Vila. A major reversal of mobility is unlikely in the future. The reasons why are indicated.     

Bulgarian Turkish emigration and return

The main factors which determined the 1989 migration of Turks in Bulgaria back to Turkey are discussed. Background history is provided. After World War I, Turks in bulgaria comprised 10% of the total population. Bulgarian policy had been, up to the 1980s to send Rumelian Turks back, but the policy after 1980 was one of a national revival process to integrate Turks into the developed socialist society. Muslim traditions, customs, and Turkish language were interfered with. International disfavor resulted. In May 1989, the Communist Party declared, in an effort to show democratic ideals, open borders. Thus began the new emigration wave. 369,839 people fled to the Turkish border. 43% of the 9.47 ethnic Turks in bulgaria went to Turkey within 4 months. The numbers decreased in November, and soon after the communist regime ended. New laws were adopted allowing Turks to assume their original Turkish names. The huge migration was clearly political, and as such, the emigrant Turks should be determined as refugees and asylum seekers. The provocation of ethnic Turks was used by the communist regime to solve potential social conflicts. Not only did Turks flee to escape from violence or for religious, cultural, and moral reasons but also due to free market initiatives begun in Turkey in the early 1980s which improved Turkish quality of life. Food and consumer goods were cheaper and economic advantages were perceived. Emigrants were primarily peasants with lower levels of education, professional qualifications, and labor skills. 154,937 (42%) returned to bulgaria and 58% stayed in Turkey to comprise 25% of the former Turkish population. During this period, tensions between countries was high.l Bulgarians actively encouraged emigration and Turkey welcomed it. The emigrants to Turkey were seen as foreigners (muhacir or gocmen) but were received with good will and were readily accepted into menial positions. Emigrants were confronted with political, linguistic, and cultural differences. The unifying factor was the Islamic religion. For those returning to Bulgaria, the change in regime meant the government worked to solve the emigrants' housing problems and teaching Turkish in primary and secondary schools. The result of this massive migration has been a change in the demographics and social structure of Bulgaria, and the realization that forceful migration is inefficient in solving problems.