Multiple Monte Carlo testing,with applications in spatial point processes

The rank envelope test (Myllymäki et al. in J R Stat Soc B, doi: 10.1111/rssb.12172, 2016) is proposed as a solution to the multiple testing problem for Monte Carlo tests. Three different situations are recognized: (1) a few univariate Monte Carlo tests, (2) a Monte Carlo test with a function as the test statistic, (3) several Monte Carlo tests with functions as test statistics. The rank test has correct (global) type I error in each case and it is accompanied with a p-value and with a graphical interpretation which determines subtests and distances of the used test function(s) which lead to the rejection at the prescribed significance level of the test. Examples of null hypotheses from point process and random set statistics are used to demonstrate the strength of the rank envelope test. The examples include goodness-of-fit test with several test functions, goodness-of-fit test for a group of point patterns, test of dependence of components in a multi-type point pattern, and test of the Boolean assumption for random closed sets. A power comparison to the classical multiple testing procedures is given.     

Preventing Religious Radicalization in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Role of the BiH Islamic Community

The goal of the paper is to identify the Islamic Community’s methods of preventing religious radicalization in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The roots of radicalism and extremism are explained by examining “Islamic revival” and studied within the Bosnian context. Although BiH appears in many international reports as a potential “cradle of terrorism”, the situation on the ground is quite different and there are many instances of combined efforts by the government and religious institutions in preventing religious radicalization in BiH. The analysis focuses on the Islamic community’s efforts to contend the spread of illegal mosques that sometimes promote radical Islam in BiH. Although there are radical individuals with different and sometimes radical understanding of Islam, the majority of Bosnian Muslims oppose any form of religious radicalization. The Islamic Community plays the most important role in preventing the spread of radical Islam in BiH, and this paper analyzes its efforts to homogenize Bosnian Muslims and prevent radicalization.     

Uncovering the Truth: The Lake Perućac Exhumations in Eastern Bosnia

The aggression and genocide in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) from 1992 to 1995 left an estimated 30,000 missing persons mainly Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims). These victims consisted of mostly male civilians, but also a significant number of women, elderly and children. Remains of victims are being uncovered in mass graves by expert teams since 1996. The mass graves included various sites spread across the territory that became known as Republika Srpska after the war ended. In many cases ravines, rivers and lakebeds were used as mass graves where the bodies were dumped and hidden. This article describes the largest operation to uncover human remains of victims in BiH and beyond, which took place in 2010, and was undertaken by the Missing Persons Institute of BiH on the dried up surface of the Peru?ac Lake on the Drina River in Eastern Bosnia. This article aims to record the important aspects of the operation and the personal stories of the victims found.     

Exchange Rate Policy in Serbia

In August 2006, Serbia adopted an inflation targeting regime as its monetary regime. The initial period of implementation of this regime was characterized by an extremely high capital inflow and appreciation of the exchange rate of the dinar. Under such conditions, the selected monetary policy regime functioned well. However, at the end of 2008, when the global financial crisis caused the outflow of foreign capital, deterioration of foreign borrowing conditions and an increase in inflationary expectations, the dinar lost about 25 per cent of its value within a relatively short period, despite the interventions of the National Bank of Serbia in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the authors of this paper raise a dilemma whether Serbia conducts an adequate policy of the exchange rate of the dinar. The authors point out that, at the moment, the policy of a free floating exchange rate is not adequate for Serbia. As an alternative, a two nominal-anchor regime—inflation and the exchange rate—is proposed.     

Automated statistical methods for measuring the strength of block ciphers

A block cipher is one of the most common forms of algorithms used for data encryption. This paper describes an efficient set of statistical methods for analysing the security of these algorithms under the black-box approach. The procedures can be fully automated, which provides the designer or user of a block cipher with a useful set of tools for security analysis.     

北京市新材料产业发展状况调查与思考

新材料创新基地建设是北京市“二、四、八重大创新工程”的重要组成部分。其发展思路和布局对全国新材料产业整体的发展有很好的借鉴作用。通过对北京市新材料产业的情况调查 ,我们认为在新材料基地建设上应坚持“双高一大”原则 ,在政府宏观指导下以企业化的运作模式 ,走传统产业与高新技术产业结合的道路。     

Building Social Capability for Economic Catch-up: The Experience and Prospects of the Post-socialist Countries

The post-socialist countries are, by the standards of the EU, poor countries. The major developmental task facing these countries is, therefore, that of catching up with their more prosperous neighbours. The scope for catch-up is defined in terms of the levels of social capability exhibited by these societies and their capacity to establish technological congruence with the leading firms from the advanced industrial economies. S&T systems in the broadest sense are shown to be key factors in relation to both social capability and technological congruence. Detailed analysis of the transition countries indicates that the catch-up process is hampered across the board by specific gaps in social capability and elements of technological incongruence. These can in turn be traced to specific structural trends, in particular in relation to foreign investment, and to specific weaknesses of institutional development, cutting across the public/private dividing line, notably in relation to R&D systems and banking systems. Consideration of all these factors suggests that there can be no assumption that the transition countries will automatically catch up with western Europe, and that some disfavoured transition countries may, indeed, continue to fall behind.