Validation of the Learning Transfer System Inventory (LTSI) in the Korean corporate context

Lack of a valid instrument to measure learning transfer predictors has been the major obstacle hindering Human Resource Development (HRD) professionals from moving forward. This problem is one of the lingering HRD issues in South Korea, in which human resources have been strategically emphasized as a critical asset due to the scarcity of natural resources. To address this issue, this study aims at testing the validity and reliability of the data collected with the Korean Learning Transfer System Inventory (LTSI) Version 4. A sample of 753 managers from 16 Korean industries was divided into two subsamples for exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Reliability and the effect of common method variance on the factor structure were examined, with the results suggesting that the LTSI is valid for use in the Korean industry.     

Marketing as an Investment in Shareholder Value

We present resource‐based and capability‐based arguments of marketing investment intensity to offer a strategic view of marketing as an investment in shareholder value. We find that marketing investment intensity has a U‐shaped quadratic effect on shareholder value creation (Tobin's q) that calls for marketing investment to be protected and increased, not surrendered. We show how marketing investments interact with investments in R&D, human capital and operations to reveal how strategic co‐investments can alter the shareholder value of marketing. Finally, we show how competitive intensity and failings in the firm's investment productivity (its ability to convert investment expenditure into sales) point to malaise in the firm's own strategic architecture as a fault for perceived poor returns from marketing investments. Our findings suggest that marketing investment should not be scapegoated when its contributions to shareholder value are not as expected. When invested in strategically and in combination with other investments, marketing can unlock exciting improvements in shareholder value.     

Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System

This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large‐scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district‐based SLFs, and circle‐shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

人民币汇率的双成分混合波动率模型

汇率波动性预测在金融和计算领域一直受到广泛关注,然而由于缺乏可以捕捉汇率波动动态变化的预测模型,高频汇率的波动率预测至今没有得到彻底的研究.文章提出了基于神经网络的双成分混合汇率波动率模型,该模型利用低通Hodrick-Prescott滤波器将已实现波动率分解为长期分量和短期分量,使用自回归神经网络模拟长期分量,一阶自回归过程模拟短期分量,通过实证分析确定自回归神经网络参数(10个隐神经元和四阶滞后输入神经元),以6种主要高频率汇率(英镑/人民币,美元/人民币,澳元/人民币,欧元/人民币,日元/人民币,和瑞士法郎/人民币),在5 h(d)、20 h(d)、100 h(d)、200 h(d)、360 h(d)和500 h(d)的预测区间构建1 h和1 d已实现波动率,并与双成分GARCH模型、EGARCH模型、四阶滞后自回归神经网络模型3个基准模型进行对比,分析模型的预测性能,实验评估表明,提出的混合预测模型在所有预测的范围内均显著地优于传统人民币汇率波动模型.     

中国企业国际化过程的“加速”和“跳跃”：过度自信视角

 传统的国际化理论模型长期用一种刻板、静态的思想对国际化活动进行思考,事实上,企业的国际化成长过程存在着复杂的、多元的国际化行为组合和行为序列模式。即使在国际化程度相同的情况下,国际化过程的差异也可能导致截然不同的组织绩效。中国企业国际化过程体现出的“加速”和“跳跃”特征令世界瞩目,但少有研究关注中国企业国际化过程背后的管理者决策逻辑。而且,目前相关研究大多基于管理者理性人假设,忽略了管理者非理性行为对国际化过程特征的影响。        基于高阶梯队和行为金融等理论,探讨高管过度自信对中国企业对外直接投资速度和节奏等国际化动态过程特征的影响,并考察在内部股权结构和外部国际化压力的双重情景下该影响机制的变化情况。以具有国际化行为的中国上市公司为研究样本,通过手工整理获取2007年至2013年301家上市公司国际化过程面板数据,选择固定效应模型进行多元回归分析。        研究结果表明,①高管过度自信与国际化速度和国际化节奏之间均存在显著的正相关关系,即高管过度自信心理会促使中国企业国际化过程的速度增加,不规律性增强;②内部国有股权比例增加显著增强高管过度自信对国际化速度和国际化节奏的正向影响;③企业外部产业国际化竞争压力显著遏制中国企业高管过度自信对企业国际化速度和国际化节奏的正向影响。        在中国特定的制度环境和管理情景下,讨论高管过度自信心理对企业国际化过程特征产生的影响,验证了中国企业国际化扩张背后存在的高管非理性因素,为行为金融理论和国际化过程研究等相关研究领域的进一步推进做出了贡献。另外,探讨内部股权和外部产业竞争的影响,进一步丰富了公司治理和产业竞争的相关实证研究。研究结论对于高管团队管理和企业国际化决策管理具有较好的实践指导意义。     

内在激励对企业外在激励供给策略的影响研究

在员工拥有内在激励的情形下,探讨企业对于外在激励的最优供给策略。研究表明:随着员工内在激励水平的提高,企业对于外在激励的最优供给水平并不一定因此而降低;在员工内在激励发生变化的情形下,企业是否增加、减少或维持其外在激励的供给水平,实际上取决于收益函数对员工努力水平的二阶导数;随着员工内在激励的提高,无论企业所提供的最优外在激励是增加、减少或不变,员工的总激励总会提高;且企业利润是员工内在激励的增函数。     

基于企业生命周期的组织创新要素与技术创新要素协同模式研究

为解决我国企业技术创新高投入低产出的问题,本文提出了同时实施与技术创新具有互补性的组织创新的必要性。以组织创新与技术创新内部复杂相关关系作为研究对象,深入分析了不同企业生命周期阶段组织创新与技术创新协同的不同导向关系。构建企业出生、成长、成熟与蜕变阶段的组织创新要素与技术创新要素协同模型,并应用129家企业的问卷调研数据对理论模型进行验证。研究将有助于管理者深入理解企业不同生命阶段的创新行为,并据此科学地实施组织创新与技术创新来延长企业的生命周期。     

组织文化演变驱动力的实证研究

组织文化是组织战略性竞争优势的重要组成部分。在前人研究的基础上,本文首先区分了组织文化变革两种类型——改革与演变,并以组织文化演变为研究对象,进一步提出驱动组织文化演变的三种驱动力——组织任务环境变化、组织内部环境变化和组织成员参与程度,通过结构方程模型就三种驱动力对组织文化演变的作用及三种驱动力之间的关系进行实证研究。研究结论表明,组织内部环境变化对组织文化演变起正向作用,组织任务环境变化对组织文化演变起负向作用,组织员工参与程度通过组织内部环境变化这一中介变量,对组织文化演变起正向作用。     

多项目人力资源调度实证研究

针对某公寓大修项目,建立有关人力资源约束下的多项目进度管理问题混合整数规划模型。其中考虑了多种约束,如项目对人员能力、水平的不同要求,而人员又具有多种能力及水平;目标为满足约束的条件下总成本最小化,其中包含按时间计费的工资,和福利等的固定费用。为了简化计算,采用列生成法把复杂的多项目模型分解为一个主问题和多个子问题并协调主问题和子问题求解。同时由于子问题的复杂性难以精确求解,采用启发式算法求解:首先由基于优先原则的启发式方法给出问题的初始解,再由遗传算法寻优。最后通过该实际案例的应用,表明此方法能够快速有效的解决实际问题,给决策者提供信息,帮助指导实践。