互联网金融风险与政府治理机制转型

目的/意义人工智能的飞速发展,一方面为政府治理提供了新的途径,但同时也带来了极大的挑战。因此,在人工智能背景下,如何优化政府智能决策模型、提高政府决策的效率和科学性就显得尤为重要。设计/方法从政府治理中智能决策的相关理论入手,对影响政府智能决策的内部因素和外部因素展开了研究,探讨了融合多源信息进行政府智能决策的问题。结论/发现构建了基于政府内外部信息的多源信息融合模型和政府智能决策系统,为智能化政务办公的发展提供强有力支撑。     

试论河洛与海岱地区史前文化交流的格局、途径与历史背景

河洛与海岱地区史前文化交流的格局不同时期有所变化,裴李岗至仰韶晚期前段以河洛影响海岱地区为主,仰韶晚期后段至龙山早期则以海岱对河洛地区的影响占主导地位,龙山晚期前段以河洛影响海岱地区稍占优势,至龙山晚期后段海岱地区在文化交流格局中重新占据了主导地位.双方文化交流的途径,裴李岗至龙山早期基本上是通过豫东、鲁西南和皖西北地区来实现的,龙山晚期则还通过豫北、冀南和鲁西北地区来完成.文化交流格局的形成有着不同的历史背景,尉迟寺类型的出现及太昊部族在豫东等地的兴起,系龙山早期双方文化交流格局形成的历史背景;而发生在龙山早、晚两期之交的涿鹿之战则是龙山晚期前段两地区文化交流趋向发生较大变化的社会历史背景.     

实践概念的泛化及其逻辑难题——实践存在论美学论析

实践存在论美学以实践为人的存在本体,将实践与存在相结合开启关学思考的路径,实践范畴是其核心范畴,其关于实践及其与相关范畴的逻辑关系的理论思考构成这一美学的理论基石.本文试图依循实践存在论美学自身的理论思路,考察其实践的内涵以及该理论如何将这种实践与密切相关的一些理论关键词,如存在、审美活动、唯物主义等相结合,并进一步对这一理论的美学阐释力作出分析.     

Adolescent Sibling Relationship Quality and Adjustment: Sibling Trustworthiness and Modeling,as Factors Directly and Indirectly Influencing These Associations

The main goal of this study was to examine the direct and moderating effects of trustworthiness and modeling on adolescent siblings' adjustment. Data were collected from 438 families including a mother, a younger sibling in fifth, sixth, or seventh grade (M = 11.6 years), and an older sibling (M = 14.3 years). Respondents completed Web‐based surveys describing sibling conflict and warmth. Siblings reported on trustworthiness and modeling, and mothers described adjustment. Sibling conflict was directly associated with internalizing and externalizing behaviors for both siblings. The older siblings' reports of trustworthiness were directly associated with the outcome measures. The younger siblings' reports of trustworthiness were less directly associated, but a possible salutary effect was most evident under the highest levels of sibling conflict or warmth. Higher sibling modeling was a risk factor for adjustment problems in relations characterized by high conflict. Results support exploring trustworthiness as a key dimension of sibling relations.     

中国式价格上涨不是通货膨胀

此次国际金融危机的出现使得国际经济形势越来越复杂,在这种形势下,已经具有较高开放度的中国经济需要审时度势,格外谨慎从事,不能大意,尤其是不能放松对于恶性通货膨胀的警惕和防备.目前,中国经济已经进入了高增长阶段.这一阶段的存在是以中国的工业化腾飞为根据的.在经济高增长阶段,中国的消费品和生产资料的价格已经不可抑制地随之普遍上涨.但这种价格上涨的性质是价格调整,是市场机制作用下的比价关系的调整,不是恶性的通货膨胀的表现.     

关于扩大内需与适度消费的思考

文章从扩大内需、保持适度消费角度对在新旧体制转换时期,如何使国民经济保持持续稳定快速增长进行了探讨,指出这应该是政府和商家的共同行为,政府的政策性指导,将有助于建立公众正确消费观念.     

我国政府统计中多层次推断问题讨论

当前,多层次推断问题已成为我国在政府统计中推广抽样调查所面临的最大难题。本文回顾了现有解决多层次推断问题的方法,指出这些方法在使用上的限制;提出从改进估计的角度解决多层次推断问题,讨论了借助辅助信息改进估计的方法和建立统计模型进行推估的方法,并指出各种方法的优劣和适用情况;简要探讨了大数据背景下对解决多层次推断问题的一些启示。     

Reducing bias of the maximum-likelihood estimation for the truncated Pareto distribution

The Pareto distribution is an important distribution in statistics, which has been widely used in finance, physics, hydrology, geology, astronomy, and so on. Even though the parameter estimation for the Pareto distribution has been well established in the literature, the estimation problem for the truncated Pareto distribution becomes complex. This article investigates the bias and mean-squared error of the maximum-likelihood estimation for the truncated Pareto distribution, and some useful results are obtained.     

Storage Life Prediction for a High-Performance Capacitor Using Multi-Phase Wiener Degradation Model

Capacitance is a critical performance characteristic of high-voltage-pulse capacitor which is used to store and discharge electrical energy rapidly. The capacitors usually are stored for a long period of time before put into use. Experimental result and engineering experience indicate that the capacitance increases with storage time and will eventually exceed the failure threshold, which means that the capacitor may fail during storage. This is a typical mode of degradation failure for long storage products. Further, the capacitance degradation path can be extrapolated in several stages based on the shifting characteristics. That is, the capacitance increases slowly or fluctuates in the initial storage stage that lasts about three months. Then it increases sharply in the middle stage which lasts about four months. After the two stages, the capacitor enters into the third stage in which capacitance increases constantly. This degradation phenomenon motivates us to study the storage life prediction method based on multi-phase degradation path model. The storage performance degradation mechanism of high-voltage-pulse capacitor was investigated, which provides the physical basis for multi-phase Wiener degradation model. Identification procedure for the transition points in the degradation path was proposed using maximum likelihood principle (MLP). The result of Kruskal-Wallis test which is the method to test whether two populations are consistent or not in statistics showed that the transition points are statistically effective. Other parameters in the multi-phase degradation model are estimated with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) after the transition points have been specified. The multi-phase Inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution for storage life was deduced for the capacitor, and the point and interval estimation procedure for reliable storage life are constructed with bootstrap method. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed multi-phase degradation model is compared with storage life prediction under single-phase condition.     

Detection of outliers in mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive models

ABSTRACT

This article studies the outlier detection problem in mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive model. The formulae for testing outliers and their approximate distributions are derived under the mean-shift model and the variance-weight model, respectively. The simulation studies are conducted for examining the power and size of the test, as well as for the detection of outliers when a simulated data contains several outliers. A real data is analyzed to illustrate the proposed method, and modified models based on mean-shift and variance-weight models in which detected outliers are taken into account are suggested to deal with the outliers and confirm theconclusions.