Fundamentals and asset price dynamics

The relation between fundamentals and asset returns is analyzed by means of Markov-switching regression models with time-varying transition probabilities. By referring to the Italian Stock Exchange over the 1973-2002 period, we find that (i) returns switch between a zero-expected return/low volatility state and a high expected return/high volatility state; (ii) states are persistent and hence state changes can be forecast to some extent; (iii) the probability of state changes can be explained in terms of changes in the fundamentals; (iv) fundamentals do not have a direct impact on the expected returns but they only affect the transition probability matrix. Overall, our results show that a non-linear relation between market price changes and market fundamentals can be caught within the framework of (Markov) switching regession models.A previous draft of the paper was presented at the XL Scientific Meeting of The Italian Statistical Society, Firenze, April 2000. We would like to thank Maurizio Vichi (the editor) and several anonymous referees for important suggestions. A special thank to Lorenzo Sevini for valuable research assistance. Partial financial support by Italian M.I.U.R. grants is gratefully acknowledged.     

Risk to Groundlings of Death Due to Airplane Accidents: A Risk Communication Tool

During the period 1975-85 in the United States the 70 year lifetime risk of dying from being hit by an airplane when the individual is on the ground was 4.2 per million people. In contrast to many other risks used for comparison purposes, risk to those on the ground from an airplane crash is not a function of our own skills; is not optional; provides no benefit to anyone involved; and is not an act of nature. As a risk comparison tool it also has the useful characteristics of being something about which we can agree that regulatory action, such as control of airplane use and traffic, is warranted; but that no significant change in personal behavior, such as living in the basement to protect against dying from a plane hitting the home, is commensurate with the extent of risk.     

DUALISM AND DESIRE IN THE LANDSCAPE OF THE DIVINE

Through depictions of the landscape in the literary works of contemporary Jewish national-religious poets and writers, ambivalence in their relationship towards their natural and man-made surroundings is laid bare. The implementation of the Israeli occupation on the West Bank has rendered a profound impact on the landscape; yet for religious Jewish settlers who subscribe to the promise of redemption that will mark the unification of Jews, God and the land – such unity is desired yet unattainable. In the reading of these texts, the landscape takes on many of the qualities of Jacques Lacan's ‘objet a’ that is both a surplus of the Real and testimony to its absence. Coveted and resented, pure and profane, inclusive and alienating – the portrayed spaces and places of the Israeli occupation allude to binary poles that can be read through Bruno Latour's investigation on the nature of ‘factishes’; these render the depiction of the landscape a unison between what its dwellers are, and what they desire. Through the prism of these two approaches, the depicted landscape of the Israeli occupation that emerges from these texts is one that borrows from Zionist ideology, and yet carves for itself its own niche. In its relationship with the land and the landscape, religious-national sentiment is not yet another manifestation of a national ideology (though it both feeds from and is fed by it), but is propelled by the desire to lay claim to the Lacanian notion of a longed-for Real. In these as yet relatively unstudied texts, the landscape of occupation maps the landscape of its writers’ pleasures and pains, and that of continuous desire.     

The Experience of Remarried Couples in Blended Families

This study examines the effect of the previous marriage on remarried couples within the context of a blended family. Fifteen couples in stepfamilies married from 1 to 38 years were interviewed. Qualitative analysis, using constructivist grounded theory, revealed four significant themes: (a) Most couples exhibited caution when considering marrying their spouse. (b) Differing loyalties caused stepparents to feel their needs came last and the biological parents to feel caught in the middle. (c) Antagonism toward the ex-spouse brought couples together but also resulted in their feeling powerless and frustrated. (d) Role confusion created frustration for the stepparents and guilt for their spouses. Self-psychology was the theory used to analyze the results, and implications for treatment are discussed.     

Understanding the Influence of Loneliness on HIV Risk Behavior in Young Men Who Have Sex with Men

In this study we used grounded theory methodology to understand the influence of loneliness in YMSM in terms of HIV risk behavior. Twenty-two YMSM, 18–29 years of age, of HIV-negative/unknown status were interviewed. Results indicated that loneliness is defined in two ways: emotional and social. A cyclical pattern emerged that included negative symptoms, “self-treatment” of loneliness through drug use and sex, temporary relief, remorse related to engaging in HIV risk behaviors, negative self-image, and ultimately the reemergence of initial loneliness symptoms. Results suggest that loneliness in YMSM plays a greater role in HIV-related behavior than previously understood. A preliminary explanatory model, implications, and directions for future research are discussed.     

“Sometimes You Just Have to Have a Lot of Bitter to Make It Sweet”: Substance Abuse and Partner Abuse in the Lives of HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex with Men

Although links between partner abuse (PA) and substance abuse (SA) are well-documented in the literature, we know less about these relations among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). We conducted a qualitative study with this group (N = 28). Participants reported (1) social modeling of SA in childhood and in adult social networks, (2) initial use of substance to cope with child abuse and neglect, and (3) the reinforcement of problematic SA by experiences of PA, whereby SA led to PA, resulting in increased SA. Recommendations for clinicians working with HIV-positive MSM are discussed.     

The Healthy Young Men's Study: Sampling Methods to Recruit a Random Cohort of Young Men Who Have Sex With Men

Recruiting a scientifically sound cohort of young men who have sex with men (YMSM) is an enduring research challenge. The few cohort studies that have been conducted to date on YMSM have relied on nonprobability sampling methods to construct their cohorts. While these studies have provided valuable information about HIV risk behaviors among YMSM, their generalizability to broader YMSM populations is limited. In this article, the authors describe a venue-based sampling methodology used to recruit a large and diverse cohort of YMSM from public venues in Los Angeles County, California. Venue-based sampling is a multistage probability sampling design that uses standard outreach techniques and standard survey methods to systematically enumerate, sample, and survey hard-to-reach populations. The study design allowed the authors to estimate individual, familial, and interpersonal psychosocial factors associated with HIV risk and health-seeking behaviors for a cohort of YMSM with known properties. Study participants completed an extensive baseline survey and over a 2-year period completed four follow-up surveys at 6-month intervals. The baseline survey was administered in both English and Spanish.     

Avant-Garde Militarism and a Post-Hip-Hop President

Feminist global politics scholars have long investigated militarized masculinities to demonstrate the toxic and mutually constitutive relationship between war, militarism and masculinity. This article investigates this relationship in the political sphere by analysing the embodiment, performance and construction of presidential masculinities. In particular, I compare and contrast the presidential masculinities of George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Through a multimodal discursive analysis of online presidential photo galleries, I demonstrate that Obama has recast US presidential and African American masculinities in contradictory but significant ways. I argue that Obama constructs and performs a hybrid presidential masculinity that is contemporary, demilitarized and characterized by a post-hip-hop ghetto-style cool. This presidential masculinity and the avant-garde militarism that accompanies it stands in stark contrast to Bush and cleverly camouflages, even reinvigorates, ongoing US militarism across the globe. After all, Obama further institutionalized the ‘War on Terror’, but has a Nobel Peace Prize amongst his accolades. Throughout, I elucidate the concept of presidential masculinities, noting their relationship to hegemonic masculinities. I conclude that Obama's hybrid presidential masculinity may very well be a more sophisticated deployment and embodiment of US hegemonic masculinity in the twenty-first century.     

Six-Month Follow-Up Changes for TANF-Eligible Clients Involved in Kentucky's Targeted Assessment Program

ABSTRACT

Welfare reform has been successful in helping clients achieve self-sufficiency. However, some individuals experience problems associated with basic needs, physical health, mental health, substance abuse, and intimate partner violence (IPV) that can impede transitioning from welfare to work and/or interfere with parental responsibilities. The Targeted Assessment Program (TAP) was created more than a decade ago to identify and address these problems and help clients move off the welfare rolls in Kentucky. Self-reported interview data were used to examine changes and effect sizes between baseline assessment and 6-month follow-up from a sample (n = 322) of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families-eligible clients participating in Kentucky's TAP. Using McNemar's test for correlated proportions, paired-sample t-tests, and measures of effect size, significant changes with varied effect sizes were found for selected basic needs, as well as physical health, mental health, substance use, and IPV barriers. Findings suggest that social service practitioners could incorporate strengths-based case management and motivational interviewing into their practice. Further research is suggested utilizing longitudinal and controlled studies on evidence-based practice that address pretreatment and assessment strategies involving case management and motivational interviewing.