Do Trade Union Leaders Violate Subjective Expected Utility? Some Insights From Experimental Data

This paper presents the results of two experiments designed to test violations of Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) within a sample of Italian trade union delegates and leaders. Subjects priced risky and ambiguous prospects in the domain of gains. Risky prospects were based on games of chance, while ambiguous prospects were built on the standard Ellsberg paradox and on event lotteries whose outcomes were based either on the results of a fictional election or on the future results of the 1999 European Parliamentary election in Italy and the U.K. The experiments show that, although risky prospects were priced at their expected values on average, trade union delegates and leaders did violate SEUT when assessing ambiguous prospects. Moreover, their behaviour depended on the source of uncertainty (Ellsberg paradox vs. electoral results; fictional vs. real election; Italy vs. U.K. election outcomes). We discuss the implications of these results for the economic theory of the trade union.     

Fundamentals and asset price dynamics

The relation between fundamentals and asset returns is analyzed by means of Markov-switching regression models with time-varying transition probabilities. By referring to the Italian Stock Exchange over the 1973-2002 period, we find that (i) returns switch between a zero-expected return/low volatility state and a high expected return/high volatility state; (ii) states are persistent and hence state changes can be forecast to some extent; (iii) the probability of state changes can be explained in terms of changes in the fundamentals; (iv) fundamentals do not have a direct impact on the expected returns but they only affect the transition probability matrix. Overall, our results show that a non-linear relation between market price changes and market fundamentals can be caught within the framework of (Markov) switching regession models.A previous draft of the paper was presented at the XL Scientific Meeting of The Italian Statistical Society, Firenze, April 2000. We would like to thank Maurizio Vichi (the editor) and several anonymous referees for important suggestions. A special thank to Lorenzo Sevini for valuable research assistance. Partial financial support by Italian M.I.U.R. grants is gratefully acknowledged.     

Risk to Groundlings of Death Due to Airplane Accidents: A Risk Communication Tool

During the period 1975-85 in the United States the 70 year lifetime risk of dying from being hit by an airplane when the individual is on the ground was 4.2 per million people. In contrast to many other risks used for comparison purposes, risk to those on the ground from an airplane crash is not a function of our own skills; is not optional; provides no benefit to anyone involved; and is not an act of nature. As a risk comparison tool it also has the useful characteristics of being something about which we can agree that regulatory action, such as control of airplane use and traffic, is warranted; but that no significant change in personal behavior, such as living in the basement to protect against dying from a plane hitting the home, is commensurate with the extent of risk.     

Differences between matched heterosexual and non-heterosexual college students on defense mechanisms and psychopathological symptoms

Differences between heterosexual and non-heterosexual college students on measures of defense mechanisms and psychopathological symptoms were examined. Fifty-six (28 heterosexual, 28 non-heterosexual) subjects were drawn from a larger study of college student adjustment. Non-heterosexual subjects were matched to a heterosexual peer on several demographic variables as well as on attachment security/insecurity. Differences between the two groups on the Defense Mechanism Inventory and the Brief Symptom Inventory were tested. Contrary to traditional psychoanalytic conceptions of homosexuality, no differences were found between the two groups on any subscale of the Defense Mechanism Inventory, thereby repudiating one important aspect of traditional psychoanalytic theories on the development of homosexuality. Non-heterosexual students reported significantly higher levels of anxiety, depression, somaticization, paranoid ideation, general symptom severity, and suicidal ideation. These students appear to be at increased risk for psychopathology and suicidal ideation, despite similar defense profiles, when compared to matched heterosexual peers. Additional research is needed to determine the origins of this increased risk, and comprehensive and targeted prevention and intervention programs must be established to ameliorate such risks.     

"Beautiful publicity": an introduction to queer Asian film

With a few seemingly apolitical exceptions, openly queer cinemas have generally charted two opposing courses-a propagandistic search for bourgeois acceptance or a radical challenge to sexual hegemony. Yet even the most politically challenging of queer films, for example those of Pasolini, are nevertheless distributed and disseminated through the heteronormative and hegemonically capitalist means they philosophically oppose. This essay thus takes as its texts two low-budget gay male Japanese films of the 1980s, which have been made available on international home video, as opposing examples of politicoeconomic allegories enacted within the self-reflexive contexts of queer cinema and gay male political history. Taken together, the two films present an interlocking example of how Asian queer films both engage and refute "Eastern" and "Western" conceptions of homosexuality and sexual politics in general.     

The determinants of breast-feeding in sri lanka

Breast-feeding is the focus of rapidly growing interest. Research on the determinants of breast-feeding is only beginning. The research in this paper is based on World Fertility Survey data for Sri Lanka. We develop what we believe to be an appropriate probit model and find that there are significant socioeconomic factors that influence breast-feeding, in addition to the demographic factors focused upon in the literature. Moreover, some of them have clear policy implications, which are elaborated herein with respect to labor force, education, family planning and internal migration policies. In the course of the paper we also address a number of generally neglected statistical issues that should be considered in analyzing the determinants of breastfeeding, including problems resulting from digit preference or age heaping, the need to use dichotomous dependent variables, unavoidable truncation biases in the basic data, and structural shifts in the determinants of breastfeeding at different durations.     

Planting a seed: encouraging service users towards educational goals

Some interventions by social workers, teachers and parents take time to develop but can produce, in the longer term, powerful and unexpectedly positive results. We were reminded of this in 2013, when we undertook a small qualitative study where we used feminist memory work to explore the experiences of 11 women from low socio-economic backgrounds studying social sciences at an Australian university. Of the eleven participants, seven were from social work. When asked to remember their journey into tertiary education, the women revealed memorable encounters with social workers, teachers and parents, the impact of which had lasted well into the future. We use the gardening metaphor of ‘planting a seed’ to refer to interventions that may not blossom in the short term but can bear fruit months or years later. Yet, we also note that ‘seeds of doubt’ can be planted too. We conclude by suggesting that planting seeds of possibility is a worthy but potentially overlooked professional activity. Yet, since ours is a small study, further research is warranted to explore the influence of social workers who plant seeds of possibility and whose actions help to recruit and retain socially disadvantaged students in higher education.