Risk Assessment for Hospital-Acquired Diseases: A Risk-Theory Approach

We introduce a new approach to hospital-acquired disease risk assessment from public health databases. In a spirit similar to actuarial risk theory, we define an adjustment coefficient that can quantify the risk associated with a hospital department, allowing comparisons of similar departments. The adjustment coefficient characterizes the tail of the distribution of the total patient length of stay in a department before the first disease event occurs. We show that this coefficient is the solution of a Lundberg-like equation, and we provide a nonparametric estimation procedure for this measure, based on a Cramér-Lundberg approximation for the tail of the distribution. Using simulations, we provide evidence of the robustness of the approximation to various individual risk models. In addition, we illustrate the relevance of this approach by evaluating the risk associated with a standard patient safety indicator in 20 hospitals of southeastern France.     

When Passion Leads to Problematic Outcomes: A Look at Gambling

Vallerand et al. (2003) have proposed that individuals can have two distinct types of passion toward an activity. Harmonious passion, an internal force leading one to choose to engage in the activity, is proposed to be associated with positive consequences. Obsessive passion, an internal pressure forcing one to engage in an activity, is posited to be associated with negative consequences. The present study sought to determine the role of the two types of passion in various cognitive and affective states associated with dependence and problems with gambling. Participants (n = 412) were recruited at the Montréal Casino and given a questionnaire measuring passion toward gambling, as well as consequences associated with dependence and problem gambling. Results showed that obsessive passion for gambling predicted poorer vitality and concentration in daily tasks, as well as increased rumination, anxiety, negative mood, guilt, and problem gambling. These relations were not found for harmonious passion for gambling. Results are discussed in light of the motivational approach to passion (Vallerand et al., 2003).     

Learning technologies at the service of higher education: global trends and local Israeli opportunities

This paper provides an overview of global trends in e-Learning and opportunities opened by harnessing learning technologies at the service of the Israeli higher education. The introduction of innovative learning technologies is examined in light of an organizational change. A series of substantial issues should be taken into account to successfully manage the change. Among these are: rethinking of academic learning and instruction, redefining the role of the teachers and the students, decoupling the learning materials and the learning process, new approaches to student assessment and program evaluation, and instituting a well thought out organizational plan including a support center. The above-mentioned issues guided the introduction of a recent call for project proposals for the integration of technologies into Israeli higher education. The main principles, criteria and results of this call are described.     

Annualized hours as a capacity planning tool in make-to-order or assemble-to-order environment: An agricultural implements company case

Capacity planning is one of the most important elements for an efficient production planning and control system. It is even more important when the main strategies to fulfil sales requirements are make-to-order (MTO) or assemble-to-order (ATO). Neither MTO or ATO companies keep finished products in stock which means that production level is driven by actual sales figures. Therefore, it is very important to have an available capacity as flexible as possible to meet sales requirements. Annualized hours (AH) is a work time control system that helps in increasing the flexibility of available capacity. The main rule of the AH system is to hire employees to work a certain number of hours on a yearly basis. Following some other pre-defined rules and limits, the AH system allows a company to adjust weekly available time in order to reduce idle capacity or to fulfil requirements that could mean overtime. This paper proposes a linear programming model to plan the operations using AH. This model has been implemented in a company that produces agricultural implements, showing that it is very simple to use. It is producing excellent practical results.     

Evaluation of the green supply chain management practices: a fuzzy ANP approach

Environmentally responsible manufacturing, green supply chain management (GSCM), and related principles have become important strategies for companies to achieve profit and gain market share by lowering their environmental impacts and increasing their efficiency. As environment has become a key strategic consideration in supply chains, this study examines the components and elements of GSCM and suggests a novel GSCM evaluation framework. It also provides a real-case study of Ford Otosan, one of the pioneering companies about environmental subjects in Turkey, to illustrate the industrial application of our theoretical assessment model. The identified components are integrated into a strategic assessment and evaluation tool using analytical network process (ANP). The dynamic characteristics and complexity of the GSCM analysis environment make the ANP technique a suitable tool for this study. Moreover, to cope with ambiguity and vagueness of the decision maker's evaluations, the fuzzy extension of the ANP method is preferred.     

Waste identification diagrams

Value Stream Mapping (VSM) is a very popular tool in lean environments to represent production flows, mapping value stream of a product or family of products, and helps to identify some types of waste. Although very popular, this tool has some limitations as already described in many publications, especially in terms of restrictions in showing most types of waste as well as in its inability to represent various production routes. The purpose of this study is to introduce the waste identification diagram (WID), a new tool to represent production units with its different forms of waste, which overcomes some VSM limitations. The originality of WID comes from the use of its symbols’ dimensions to convey, in a visual and immediate way, relevant information about a production unit. In this paper, WID is applied on a production unit of a lift manufacturer, for testing its performance and comparing it to VSM. The main findings are that WID is in general more effective than VSM in terms of representation of complex production units and in terms of identification of more forms of waste. WID must however overcome some of its limitations such as the lack of information-flow representation and the links to suppliers and clients.     

A bayesian estimator for the dependence function of a bivariate extreme‐value distribution

Any continuous bivariate distribution can be expressed in terms of its margins and a unique copula. In the case of extreme‐value distributions, the copula is characterized by a dependence function while each margin depends on three parameters. The authors propose a Bayesian approach for the simultaneous estimation of the dependence function and the parameters defining the margins. They describe a nonparametric model for the dependence function and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of the Bayesian estimator. They show through simulations that their estimator has a smaller mean integrated squared error than classical nonparametric estimators, especially in small samples. They illustrate their approach on a hydrological data set.     

The impact of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion on annuity and saving choices

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We analyze the impact of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion on the competing demands for annuities and bequeathable savings using a lifecycle recursive utility...     

Five legitimate definitions of correlated equilibrium in games with incomplete information

Aumann's (1987) theorem shows that correlated equilibrium is an expression of Bayesian rationality. We extend this result to games with incomplete information.First, we rely on Harsanyi's (1967) model and represent the underlying multiperson decision problem as a fixed game with imperfect information. We survey four definitions of correlated equilibrium which have appeared in the literature. We show that these definitions are not equivalent to each other. We prove that one of them fits Aumann's framework; the agents normal form correlated equilibrium is an expression of Bayesian rationality in games with incomplete information.We also follow a universal Bayesian approach based on Mertens and Zamir's (1985) construction of the universal beliefs space. Hierarchies of beliefs over independent variables (states of nature) and dependent variables (actions) are then constructed simultaneously. We establish that the universal set of Bayesian solutions satisfies another extension of Aumann's theorem.We get the following corollary: once the types of the players are not fixed by the model, the various definitions of correlated equilibrium previously considered are equivalent.