Rural development and urban migration: can we keep them down on the farm?

This study tests the hypothesis that rural development projects and programs reduce rural-urban migration. The author presents various factors in the social theories of migration, including those relating to origin and destination, intervening obstacles such as distance, and personal factors. 3 economic models of migration are the human capital or cost-benefit approach, the expected income model, and the intersectoral linkage model. Empirical studies of migration indicate that: 1) rural areas with high rates of out-migration tend to have high population densities or high ratios of labor to arable land, 2) distance inhibits migration, 3) rural-urban migration is positively correlated with family income level, and 4) selectivity differences in socioeconomic status between migrants and nonmigrants often are grouped into development packages which might include irrigation, new varieties of seed, subsidized credit, increased extension, and improved marketing arrangements. The migration impacts of some of these efforts are described: 1) land reform usually is expected to slow rural out-migration because it normally increases labor utilization in rural areas, but this is a limited effect, 2) migration effects of the Green Revolution technology are mainly in rural-rural migration, and 3) agricultural mechanization may stimulate rural-urban migration in the long run. Development of rural social services migh have various effects on rural-urban migration. Better rural education, which improves the chances of urban employment, will stimulate rural-urban migration, while successful rural family planning programs will have a negative effect in the long run as there will be reduced population pressure on arable land. Better rural health services might reduce the incentive for rural-urban migration as well. It is suggested that governments reconsider policies which rely on rural development to curb rural-urban migration and alleviate problems of urban poverty and underemployment.     

The aims of population statistics and demographic research

A detailed program for the improvement of population statistics and for the development of demographic research is presented, with particular reference to the USSR. Topics covered include global and regional population projections, special surveys on demographic behavior, and the need for improvements in migration data.     

Public opinion and the privatization of welfare: some theoretical implications

The social policy of the Thatcher government is characterized by an abrupt shift in the direction of the private sector. To what extent does this reflect what people want? The Institute of Economic Affairs conclude from the only suitable national opinion survey that such a move is strongly supported. Our reanalysis of their data shows that this strand in public opinion can coexist with, and need not contradict, an equal public enthusiasm for state welfare. Such results have important implications for our understanding of social policy. We conclude, therefore, with a discussion of contrasting marxist and liberal accounts which seeks to show that the evidence of ambivalence in popular attitudes about the welfare state supports particular developments in theory.     

当代生活与艺术之死:第二、第三和第一世界

当今所谓的艺术,主要是受20世纪七八十年代以来发展并在全球范围内扩散的美国式“艺术”观念所支配,而再也不受德语的“艺术”或法语的“美的艺术”体系所支配。自从现代主义诞生以来,艺术的历史使命的减弱或者消失已经成为事实,但从全球范围而言,“艺术的终结”这一论断仍有些夸大其词。因为在第一世界的艺术死亡之后(这里存在更多的是文化),第二和第三世界的艺术还生长着。艺术从根本上说还不是一个媒介事件和现象,而是一个同我们每个人相关的东西——不管它是不是商品。     

从所有的地方获得好的构想

一些令你确保构想在你的企业里胜出的可做之事: ▲不要以为你或你的公司拥有全部答案: 这是一个学习型企业的第一条商业法则,如果你以为你无所不 知,那么你就会停止寻找好的构想。 ▲研究竞争对手: 韦尔奇认为,学习好的构想的最佳去处之一就是你的竞争对手那 里。养成一个习惯,每周花1小时时间研究他们的网页、产品目录和其 他所有能使你了解他们的最新创意的东西。     

社会保障面临的现代挑战：第二次人口结构转型

本文探讨了因人口统计学家所描述的“第二次人口结构转型”和一系列替代政策应对措施导致的现收现付、待遇确定型社会保险计划所面临的挑战。对于许多国家来讲,预期寿命的延长和不断下降的生育率威胁到传统社会保障体系的财政可持续性,因为随着退休老年人口比例的不断上升,劳动适龄缴费人口的比例正在下降。为了应对日益增长的公共支出压力,采取一系列政策改革有助于恢复社会保障的财政平衡。本文围绕这些措施分析了三大类改革,包括：渐进式和系统性的改革、强制性和自愿性的私有化改革以及以家庭为导向的福利制度。目前尚不清楚这些政策改革能在多大程度上平衡社会保障收支,且不会给下一代在职劳动力和退休人员造成经济损失。