On the Labour Market Progress of Polish Accession Workers in South‐East England

The enlargement of the European Union (EU) in May 2004 produced a very significant wave of immigration to the United Kingdom that is likely to continue to impact its labour market in forthcoming years. Polish migrants were by far the largest cohort of the new entrants. This paper complements previous work that has begun to establish the characteristics and labour market performance of migrants from the new member states who have entered the United Kingdom. This paper uses a unique micro‐level data base to investigate the labour market evolution of Polish migrants in the UK labour market. We find that in the first UK job returns to human capital were negligible. However, for the current job an extra year of education increases the weekly gross wage by 3.2 per cent. There is evidence of a gender differential in pay in both jobs and that older workers are paid more than their younger counterparts but this effect becomes insignificant in the current job. We find that hours worked is a significant factor in wage determination. However, the influence of hours worked on wages declined by approximately 38 per cent between the first and current job. Results from multinomial logit models suggest that over‐time there is some “match” between the occupational groupings that these workers were attached to in Poland and the United Kingdom. We also find evidence that the use of employment agencies by some of these workers increases the likelihood of employment in skilled manual and non‐manual occupations. Workers who have had supervisory responsibility in the United Kingdom are more likely to be in professional or intermediate occupations.     

Child witness support and preparation: are parents/caregivers ignored?

Over recent decades research has confirmed the sensible belief that to participate in criminal proceedings (that were designed for adults) child witnesses may benefit from support and preparation. This is so even in countries where special measures have been introduced to make it less arduous for children to give their testimony (e.g. closed circuit television to allow children to testify away from the actual courtroom; video recorded evidence‐in‐chief). Indeed, it could be argued that as more and more children provide testimony (e.g. as alleged victims or witnesses), the more comprehensive should be preparation and support programmes for them. However, while in some countries preparation and support programmes are now offered to such children, the needs of these children's (non‐offending) parents/caregivers seem to be ignored. This paper contends not only that these adults need preparation and support but also that the provision of this is likely to benefit child witnesses. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODELLING TRUNCATED AND CLUSTERED COUNT DATA

Count response data often exhibit departures from the assumptions of standard Poisson generalized linear models. In particular, cluster level correlation of the data and truncation at zero are two common characteristics of such data. This paper describes a random components truncated Poisson model that can be applied to clustered and zero‐truncated count data. Residual maximum likelihood method estimators for the parameters of this model are developed and their use is illustrated using a dataset of non‐zero counts of sheets with edge‐strain defects in iron sheets produced by the Mobarekeh Steel Complex, Iran. The paper also reports on a small‐scale simulation study that supports the estimation procedure.     

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF VECTOR ARFIMA PROCESSES

A general framework is presented for Bayesian inference of multivariate time series exhibiting long-range dependence. The series are modelled using a vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average (VARFIMA) process, which can capture both short-term correlation structure and long-range dependence characteristics of the individual series, as well as interdependence and feedback relationships between the series. To facilitate a sampling-based Bayesian approach, the exact joint posterior density is derived for the parameters, in a form that is computationally simpler than direct evaluation of the likelihood, and a modified Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to generate samples from the complete conditional distribution associated with each parameter. The paper also shows how an approximate form of the joint posterior density may be used for long time series. The procedure is illustrated using sea surface temperatures measured at three locations along the central California coast. These series are believed to be interdependent due to similarities in local atmospheric conditions at the different locations, and previous studies have found that they exhibit ‘long memory’ when studied individually. The approach adopted here permits investigation of the effects on model estimation of the interdependence and feedback relationships between the series.     

Theorizing conspiracy

Theory and Society -     

Practice Change in Child Welfare: The Interface of Training and Social Work Education

This article examines perceptions of the relationship between professional education and workplace training among a select group of public child welfare employees who pursued graduate social work education during a period of major practice change at their agency. Focus groups were conducted with representative members of graduating cohorts as students completed their studies to explore the connections and distinctions between their professional education and the workplace training that introduced case practice reform. Experienced caseworkers, supervisors, and management-level staff, study participants were well situated to contemplate the changes in process at their agency. They offered insights into the progress of reform and the challenges of sustaining change as well as their roles as professional social workers in carrying reforms forward.