Dynamic optimal capital growth of diversified investment

We investigate the problem of dynamic optimal capital growth of diversified investment. A general framework that the trader maximize the expected log utility of long-term growth rate of initial wealth was developed. We show that the trader's fortune will exceed any fixed bound when the fraction is chosen less than critical value. But, if the fraction is larger than that value, ruin is almost sure. In order to maximize wealth, we should choose the optimal fraction at each trade. Empirical results with real financial data show the feasible allocation. The larger the fraction and hence the larger the chance of falling below the desired wealth growth path.     

偏斜参数对GARCH族模型估计与预测绩效的影响

本文先运用蒙特卡洛模拟考察了偏斜参数对GARCH族模型估计结果的影响并发现,若标准化扰动项偏斜且厚尾,基于对称厚尾分布的极大似然估计量渐近有偏.以上证指数收益为样本,利用SPA检验,实证考察了10种常见的GARCH族结构分别在正态分布、Student-t、GED以及Skew-t分布假设下的波动率预测绩效.结果发现:①Skew-t分布假设下的GARCH族结构能够获得优越的预测绩效;②10种GARCH族结构中,有8种模型在Student-t分布假设下的预测绩效不及正态分布,而GED分布假设下也有4种模型不及正态分布;③样本外观测值的多少以及GARCH-m结构的有无不改变主要结论.     

The generalized two-sided power distribution

The generalized standard two-sided power (GTSP) distribution was mentioned only in passing by Kotz and van Dorp Beyond Beta, Other Continuous Families of Distributions with Bounded Support and Applications, World Scientific Press, Singapore, 2004. In this paper, we shall further investigate this three-parameter distribution by presenting some novel properties and use its more general form to contrast the chronology of developments of various authors on the two-parameter TSP distribution since its initial introduction. GTSP distributions allow for J-shaped forms of its pdf, whereas TSP distributions are limited to U-shaped and unimodal forms. Hence, GTSP distributions possess the same three distributional shapes as the classical beta distributions. A novel method and algorithm for the indirect elicitation of the two-power parameters of the GTSP distribution is developed. We present a Project Evaluation Review Technique example that utilizes this algorithm and demonstrates the benefit of separate powers for the two branches of activity GTSP distributions for project completion time uncertainty estimation.     

Directional mixture models and optimal estimation of the mixing density

The authors develop consistent nonparametric estimation techniques for the directional mixing density. Classical spherical harmonics are used to adapt Euclidean techniques to this directional environment. Minimax rates of convergence are obtained for rotation ally invariant densities verifying various smoothness conditions. It is found that the differences in smoothness between the Laplace, the Gaussian and the von Mises‐Fisher distributions lead to contrasting inferential conclusions.     

中国—东盟政治合作机制研究

本文根据中国—东盟区域合作发展的政治合作机制的概念及呈现的多维特性,运用政治合作的目标分解和构成要素,对政治合作机制进行综合的结构分析。通过利益泛化(低度)、制度分化(中度)和价值固化(深度)生成的三个阶段性使命目标(和睦共享、和平共处与和谐共荣)合作过程的剖析,对中国—东盟政治合作机制建设的结构性问题进行探讨,以此助推区域政治合作机制的改进和优化。     

Mobile use,personal values,and connectedness with civic life

This study aims to examine whether and how mobile communication enables citizens to translate their value orientations into their connectedness to the civic life. Specifically, we probe the indirect process in which different types of personal values predict key dimensions of engagement with civic affairs through patterns of mobile phone use. We show that individualism is indirectly associated with engagement with civic affairs through informational mobile use, whereas the link between collectivism and community involvement is positively intervened by relational mobile use. Additionally, socio-tropic empathy yields indirect relationships with civic engagement through informational mobile use. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Farmers’ adaptability to the policy of ecological protection in China—A case study in Yanchi County,China

Due to long-term human activities, grassland ecosystems have been severely damaged. To protect grassland ecosystems, the prohibited grazing policy (PGP), a grassland ecological protection policy, was instituted for Chinese grasslands in 2002. However, it is unknown whether farmers have effectively adapted to the PGP. The adaptability of farmers to this policy has directly influenced the effective implementation of the policy and the sustainable development of the ecosystem. Previous research on adaptability has not focused on the adaptation to political change. This article uses a case study in Northwest China to investigate the adaptability of farmers to the policy. First, we study the restoration status of ecosystems. In addition, this paper studies the perceptions regarding farmers’ adaptability to the policy and explores the adaptation strategies of different types of farmers. Finally, this paper discusses the main factors that influence farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies. The implementation of the PGP has achieved remarkable ecological benefits. Farmers of different types had different adaptation perceptions, and their choices of adaptation strategies also varied. In addition to the farmers’ perception of the policy, the main factors that influenced farmers’ adaptation strategies also included livelihood capital.     

The Chinese Road in the Light of Historical Continuity

The Chinese road has deep historical roots. Its most striking feature is that it is marked by historical continuity rather than rupture, and the main force behind this continuity is its intrinsic dynamism and vitality. Unlike the paradigm of Eurocentrism or “Discovering History in China,” the comparative analytical paradigm discovers China through long-term comparisons with corresponding countries in the same time and space in an effort to find positive elements in the history of the Chinese road and to refute the long prevalent theory of Chinese stagnation. Seen over the course of world history, the impetus for the creation of the world’s most brilliant agrarian civilization was endogenous. This impetus was not a momentary “explosive force” but a sustainable institutional drive whose main constituents were the independent farming household, endogenous government capacity and adaptive national governance. In addition to the main theme of “permanent change,” Chinese development had a secondary theme of “cyclical change” which cannot be ignored. The roots of Chinese development are buried deep in the genes of this agrarian nation in the form of sticky institutions, bureaucratic inertia, arbitrary power, etc. Historical continuity provided a foundation for China’s creative revolution and development in modern times, ultimately laying down a socialist development road with Chinese characteristics, although this remains an unfinished relay process.     

Against the Law: Labor Protests in China's Rustbelt and Sunbelt

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C.J. Wickham, The Mountains and the City. The Tuscan Appennines in the Early Middle Ages (1988), xxxiii + 427, 10 maps (Clarendon Press, Oxford, £40.00).

Peter Clark and David Souden (eds), Migration and Society in Early Modern England (1987), 355 (Hutchinson, £35.00).

Sharon V. Salinger, ’To Serve Well and Faithfully’: Labor and Indentured Servants in Pennsylvania, 1682–1800 (1987), xiv + 192 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £25.00.)

Keith Michael Baker (ed.), The Political Culture of the Old Regime (1987), xxiv + 559 (Pergamon Press, £60.00).

Jean‐Claude Bonnet (ed.), La Carmagnole des Muses. L'Homme de lettres et l'artiste dans la Revolution (1988), 426 (Armand Colin, Paris, 180ff).

Hugh Gough, The Newspaper Press in the French Revolution (1988), 264 (Routledge, £30.00).

Edna Hindie Lemay, La Vie quotidienne des députés aux Etats Généraux: 1789 (1987), 273 (Hachette, 100FF).

Detlef K. Muller, Fritz Ringer and Brian Simon (eds), The Rise of the Modern Educational System. Structural Change and Social Reproduction, 1870–1920 (1987), xiv + 264 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £27.50).

Paul Bew, Conflict and Conciliation in Ireland, 1890–1910: Parnellites and Radical Agrarians (1987), 241 (Clarendon Press, Oxford, £25.00).

Gerard Noiriel, Le Creuset français. Histoire de l'immigration XIXe‐XXe siècles (1988), (Le Seuil, Paris, 160ff).

David Montgomery, The Fall of the House of Labor (1987), 494 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £30.00, paperback £12.95).

John Holford, Reshaping Labour: Organization, Work and Politics in Edinburgh in the Great War and After (1988), xii + 276 (Croom Helm, £30.00).

Bill Lancaster, Radicalism, Co‐operation and Socialism: Leicester Working‐Class Politics 1860–1906 (1987), xxii + 232 (Leicester University Press, Leicester, £27.50).

Michael Savage, The Dynamics of Working‐Class Politics: The Labour Movement in Preston 188o‐1940 (1987), xii + 280 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £25.00).

Lynne Viola, The Best Sons of the Fatherland: Workers in the Vanguard of Soviet Collectivization (1987), x + 285 (Oxford University Press, New York and Oxford, £30.00).

Susan Bridger, Women in the Soviet Countryside: Women's Roles in Rural Development in the Soviet Union (1987), xvii + 259 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £25.00).

Tony Novak, Poverty and the State: An Historical Sociology (1988), xi + 212 (Open University Press, Milton Keynes and Philadelphia, £22.50, paperback

John Clarke, Allan Cochrane and Carol Smart, Ideologies of Welfare: From Dreams to Disillusion (1987), 206 (Hutchinson Education, paperback £7.95).

E.P. Hennock, British Social Reform and German Precedents: The Case of Social Insurance 1880–1914 (1987), vi + 243 (Clarendon Press, Oxford, £25.00).     

Tapping into English Language Learners' (ELLs') Prior Knowledge in Social Studies Instruction

Second language research and Culturally Relevant Pedagogy have shown a consensus that ELLs who have studied social studies in their home countries will have a better chance of understanding social studies concepts and quickly catching up to their native English-speaking peers. This article discusses strategies to make good use of ELLs' prior knowledge, native language and culture, and previous literacy to teach social studies concepts meaningfully and effectively to this group of students.