Evaluating second-order probability judgments with strictly proper scoring rules

Empirical studies have demonstrated that uncertainty about event probabilities, also known as ambiguity or second-order uncertainty, can affect decision makers choice preferences. Despite the importance of second-order uncertainty in decision making, almost no effort has been directed towards the development of methods that evaluate the accuracy of second-order probabilities. In this paper, we describe conditions under which strictly proper scoring rules can be used to assess the accuracy of second-order probability judgments. We investigate the effectiveness of using a particular strictly proper scoring rule the ranked probability score - to discourage biased assessments of second-order uncertainty.     

Diversity and Rigor Trends in Retailing Research: Assessment and Guidelines

This study presents an evaluation of research diversity and rigor levels in the retail marketing literature in order to glean valuable insights for researchers. Retailing is a significant sub‐field within marketing, and occupies a large portion of the extant marketing literature. The study consists of a content analysis of 600 quantitative empirical articles in the top six marketing journals (i.e. Journal of Retailing, Journal of Marketing, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Consumer Research, Marketing Science and Journal of Marketing Research) over a 12‐year period. Over this period, the diversity and rigor of research design and data analytical methods were assessed across ten research sub‐communities of retail marketing research. The authors develop a measure for evaluating the rigor of research design and analytic techniques most commonly used in business research. The data reveal trends and areas for improvement in research design and reporting scholarly research.     

Accounting for surveillance

This contribution discusses the ways people hold themselves and others accountable for everyday practices of surveillance. It analyses three examples: (1) the “breeching experiments” of the video artist “Surveillance Camera Man,” (2) a “stop and frisk” incident involving a 17‐year‐old boy in Harlem, and (3) the pop‐up windows on websites that ask for users’ consent to use “cookies.” Understanding the relationship between language and securitization, it is argued, requires that we pay attention to the interactional basis of surveillance and the ways rights and responsibilities are negotiated, ratified, challenged, or ignored in the moment‐by‐moment unfolding of communication.     

Marriage‐Related Migration to the UK

Spouses form the largest single category of migrant settlement in the UK, but research and policy making on marriage‐related migration to Britain provides incomplete coverage of the phenomenon, having been dominated by a focus on the South Asian populations that are among the largest groups of such migrants. By bringing together immigration statistics with information from academic and third‐sector sources, this article attempts to provide a more balanced and nuanced portrayal of patterns and practices of marriage‐related migration to the UK. In doing so, it reveals important nationality and gender differences in migration flows and considers how varying marriage practices, social and political contexts, and policies of both receiving and sending countries may work to influence marriage‐related migration streams. It also exposes the limitations and lacunae in existing research on this diverse form of migration, highlighting the danger that immigration policy made on the basis of partial evidence will produce unexpected consequences.     

ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF SPECIFICATION UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING*

Forecasters typically select a statistical forecasting model from among a set of alternative models. Subsequently, forecasts are generated with the chosen model and reported to management (forecast consumers) as if specification uncertainty did not exist (i.e., as if the chosen model were the “true” model of the forecast variable). In this note, a well-known Bayesian model-comparison procedure is used to illustrate some of the ambiguities and distortions of forecasts that do not reflect specification uncertainty. It is shown that a single selected forecasting model (however chosen) will generally misstate measures of forecast risk and lead to point and interval forecasts that are misplaced from a decision-theoretic point of view.     

Imagined comrades and imaginary protections: identity, community and sexual risk among men who have sex with men in China

This paper describes the recent development of identity and community among gay men in China. It focuses both on the ways emerging forms of gay identity relate to larger ideological and discursive shifts within society, and on the ways these new forms of identity and community affect situated social interaction among gay men themselves. In particular, it addresses the question of how these emerging forms of gay identity and gay community affect the ways gay men in China understand the threat of HIV and make concrete decisions about sexual risk and safety. Among the chief tactics used by gay men in China to forge identity and community involves appropriating and adapting elements from dominant discourses of the Party-State and the mass media. This strategy has opened up spaces within which gay men can claim "cultural citizenship" in a society in which they have been heretofore marginalized. At the same time, this strategy also implicated in the formation of attitudes and social practices that potentially increase the vunerability of Chinese gay men to HIV infection.     

以私人手段解决纠纷、伸张正义的习惯法:对一个无需国家强制的法律与秩序的现代体系的描述

习惯法作为互惠合作的结果,是一种不成文的社会契约,如同语言一样,它是经过长时间的互动自发产生的。在惩罚破坏法律者方面,相较于现代的惩罚方式,民间执行习惯法倾向于恢复原状,并把罚款作为主要的惩罚方式。同时在这一法律体系下有着众多的契约安排,以保护私人的财产和安全。私有法院的产生极大地促进了习惯法标准化的进程,同时流放、抵制认可、私有监狱和罚款征收对于习惯法的遵守亦有莫大的帮助。