Exploring Differences in National and International Poverty Estimates: Is Uganda on Track to Halve Poverty by 2015?

This paper explores causes of differences in estimates of poverty incidence in Uganda since the early 1990s as measured by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank. While both sets of estimates from the two organisations show a declining trend in poverty incidence there are important differences in the levels of poverty, the speed of the decline and the direction of change in the early 2000s. Methodological differences linked to the determination of the poverty line and adjustments for household composition are found to play a role. Assessing the effect of other potential causes is complicated by limitations in the World Bank’s meta-data.     

Predicting above-median and below-median growth rates

Multiannual periods of consecutive above-median or below-median growth rates in operating performance, called runs, have a substantial influence on firm valuations. For estimating the probability of an above-median or below-median run and utilizing information efficiently, we employ a stepwise regression to automatically identify the parsimonious indicator-specific set of economically and empirically meaningful variables. Our novel approach uses logit models to distinguish firms that will persistently grow above or below the median over a period of up to 6 years. The predictive power for sales growth rates is highest to discriminate between above-median and below-median growth rates, while the future behaviour of operating income and net income growth rates can partially be explained for below-median growth rates.     

Drivers of private-label purchase behavior across quality tiers and product categories

Private labels hold a substantial share of consumers’ wallets and their popularity is still growing as they spread into various product categories and quality tiers. To determine the right branding strategy, in terms of offering uniform or different private-label brands across product categories, retailers have to know whether consumers use their private-label experience across product categories and private-label tiers. Therefore, we examine different determinants of consumers’ consideration sets. We apply proneness for certain private-label tiers, product categories purchased, purchase frequency, and variety seeking as internal determinants, which contribute to consumers’ knowledge and experience with private labels. Further, we use consumers’ price consciousness and promotion sensitivity as external determinants, which the retailer can use to influence consumers’ consideration sets in the short run. Our analyses are based on large-scale loyalty program data for a period of 24 months. In particular, we use the first 12 months to derive the determinants of consumers’ share of wallets regarding different private-label quality tiers in the second half of the sample. We conduct our analyses for 12 different product categories and aggregate the results by using meta-analytic techniques. Notably, some determinants show dissimilar effects across product categories (e.g., price consciousness and promotion sensitivity), while others (e.g., private-label proneness) are rather similar. We find that consumers’ general proneness for certain private-labels tiers leads to a propensity to purchase them in a specific category and in adjacent quality tiers. Further, we reveal that product category characteristics moderate the determinants of private-label share.     

DO WAGE CUTS DAMAGE WORK MORALE? EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL FIELD EXPERIMENT

Employment contracts are often incomplete, leaving many responsibilities subject to workers' discretion. High work morale is therefore essential for sustaining voluntary cooperation and high productivity in firms. We conducted a field experiment to test whether workers reciprocate wage cuts and raises with low or high work productivity. Wage cuts had a detrimental and persistent impact on productivity, reducing average output by more than 20%. An equivalent wage increase, however, did not result in any productivity gains. The results from an additional control experiment with high monetary performance incentives demonstrate that workers could still produce substantially more output, leaving enough room for positive reactions. Altogether, these results provide evidence consistent with a model of reciprocity, as opposed to inequality aversion.     

Strategic Development of Business Models: Implications of the Web 2.0 for Creating Value on the Internet

There is virtually a consensus that, to remain competitive, firms must continuously develop and adapt their business models. However, relatively little is known about how managers can go about achieving this transformation, and how, and to what extent, different types of business models should be adapted. To illustrate the differential effect of environmental changes on different business model types, this article draws from the ‘4C’ Internet business model typology to elaborate on how a recent wave of changes on the Internet – the emergent Web 2.0 phenomenon – is affecting each of its four business model types. We argue that Web 2.0 trends and characteristics are changing the rules of the ‘create and capture value’ game, and thus significantly disrupt the effectiveness of established Internet business models. Since systematic empirical knowledge about Web 2.0 factors is very limited, a comprehensive Web 2.0 framework is developed, which is illustrated with two cases and verified through in-depth interviews with Internet business managers. Strategic recommendations on how to what extent different Web 2.0 aspects affect each business model type are developed. Executives can use the ideas and frameworks presented in the article to benchmark their firm's efforts towards embracing the changes associated with the Web 2.0 into their business model.     

On the existence of sports sentiment: the relation between football match results and stock index returns in Europe

We test for a relation between football match results and the specific national stock index returns during the period 1990–2006 by means of an event study approach. We employ two different econometric frameworks to cross-check our results and prevent them from being solely model driven: the constant mean model and a two-state Markov-switching market model. Both approaches find no significant results. Consequently, in a modified setup, we control for expectations about probable game results by applying a “surprise” variable, which is computed from betting odds and is integrated into a regression analysis. Again, there does not seem to be a connection between a specific national soccer team’s win or loss and stock index prices. In addition, through a few modifications in our empirical setup, we show how easy it would be to “produce” significant results. Our results are contrary to those of Ashton et al. (Appl Econ Lett 10:783–785, 2003) and Edmans et al. (J Finance 62(4):1967–1998, 2007) and support market efficiency.     

Intraday futures patterns and volume–volatility relationships: the German evidence

This paper examines the intraday behavior of 5-min DAX futures return volatility, volume and transactions, employing data from between January 1999 and September 2011, thus covering major market up and down trends. We focus on the interplay of the above variables finding a W-shape due to US macroeconomic news releases and the opening of US markets. By carefully modeling regular but infrequent events, we show that the last trading days of the FDAX and ODAX have significant impact on volatility and alter the intraday patterns. Additionally, we pay special attention to interactions between the futures and cash market caused by different trading hours at the Eurex. Thereby, we discover a uW-shape lending support for Daigler’s (J Futures Markets 17:45–74, 1997) extended market closure theory. Focusing on possible changes in the interplay of volume and volatility, we empirically analyze the implications of different volume–volatility theories. Finally, we model simultaneously the main volatility components—intraday calendar effects, macroeconomic announcement effects and interday volatility clustering—employing the framework of Andersen and Bollerslev (J Finance 53:219–265, 1998) to quantify and compare the impact of macroeconomic news announcements during contractions and expansions and focus on the economic impact of the crisis 2007/2008 on intraday volatility.     

Leadership and team identification: Exploring the followers' perspective

This study investigates the influence of leadership on followers' identification with their work group. Adopting a qualitative research approach, it takes on the followers' perspective for inductively deriving leadership behaviors that pertain to the development of team identification. Based on in-depth data from members of seven teams in the context of UN peacebuilding operations, four aggregate leadership dimensions can be identified that are conducive to members' team identification: providing guidance, encouraging involvement, role modeling, and administering teamwork. Accordingly, this study adds to the exploration of leadership behaviors relevant for team identification that have not been considered by extant research. The results may lay the foundations for future investigations on complementary effects of different leadership behaviors for fostering followers' identification with their work group.     

Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs

In the regression‐discontinuity (RD) design, units are assigned to treatment based on whether their value of an observed covariate exceeds a known cutoff. In this design, local polynomial estimators are now routinely employed to construct confidence intervals for treatment effects. The performance of these confidence intervals in applications, however, may be seriously hampered by their sensitivity to the specific bandwidth employed. Available bandwidth selectors typically yield a “large” bandwidth, leading to data‐driven confidence intervals that may be biased, with empirical coverage well below their nominal target. We propose new theory‐based, more robust confidence interval estimators for average treatment effects at the cutoff in sharp RD, sharp kink RD, fuzzy RD, and fuzzy kink RD designs. Our proposed confidence intervals are constructed using a bias‐corrected RD estimator together with a novel standard error estimator. For practical implementation, we discuss mean squared error optimal bandwidths, which are by construction not valid for conventional confidence intervals but are valid with our robust approach, and consistent standard error estimators based on our new variance formulas. In a special case of practical interest, our procedure amounts to running a quadratic instead of a linear local regression. More generally, our results give a formal justification to simple inference procedures based on increasing the order of the local polynomial estimator employed. We find in a simulation study that our confidence intervals exhibit close‐to‐correct empirical coverage and good empirical interval length on average, remarkably improving upon the alternatives available in the literature. All results are readily available in R and STATA using our companion software packages described in Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik (2014d, 2014b).