Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts

It is generally accepted by demographers that cohort-component projection models which incorporate directional migration are conceptually preferable to those using net migration. Yet net migration cohort-component models, and other simplified variations, remain in common use by both academics and practitioners because of their simplicity and low data requirements. While many arguments have been presented in favour of using one or other type of model, surprisingly little analysis has been undertaken to assess which tend to give the most accurate forecasts. This paper evaluates five cohort-component models which differ in the way they handle migration, four of which are well known, with one—a composite net migration model—being proposed here for the first time. The paper evaluates the performance of these five models in their unconstrained form, and then in a constrained form in which age–sex-specific forecasts are constrained to independent total populations from an extrapolative model shown to produce accurate forecasts in earlier research. Retrospective forecasts for 67 local government areas of New South Wales were produced for the period 1991–2011 and then compared to population estimates. Assessments of both total and age-specific population forecasts were made. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the forecasts constrained to total populations from the extrapolative model, with the constrained bi-regional model giving the lowest errors. The findings should be of use to practitioners in selecting appropriate models for local area population forecasts.     

Your work may be killing you! Workaholism,sleep problems and cardiovascular risk

This study tests the relationships between workaholism (i.e. working excessively and compulsively), sleep problems and cardiovascular risk in 537 employees from five Spanish hospitals. Four types of worker (i.e. workaholics, positive workers, compulsive workers and hard workers) were distinguished, and their health indicators were compared. The results showed that workaholics experienced significantly more sleep problems (i.e. morning tiredness, sleeping while driving and sleeping fewer hours both on weekdays and at weekends, with poorer quality), had higher relative risk scores, and consumed more caffeine and alcohol than the other patterns of worker (positive, compulsive and hard workers). Further analyses revealed that sleep problems fully mediated the relationship between workaholism (i.e. working excessively and compulsively) and cardiovascular risk. The study emphasizes the fact that being a workaholic might be a significant risk factor for having sleep problems and cardiovascular disease.     

Identifying design criteria for urban system ‘last-mile’ solutions – a multi-stakeholder perspective

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to design and evaluate ‘last-mile’ solutions – encompassing the social and economic perspectives of key stakeholders. While urban system initiatives have been implemented in practice, theoretical gaps remain at the operational design level. A theoretical framework is developed, based on design criteria identified from a critical synthesis of supply chain and operations management literature, and ‘operationalised’ using an in-depth case study demonstrating implementation of a Consumer Choice Portal-Package Consolidation Centre solution, within a densely populated urban geography. Findings suggest that there is a need to re-define the role of institutional actors beyond that of the traditional governance task, to one of being able to facilitate performance outcomes. Similarly, industrial efficiency dimensions need to be reorientated to include consumer participation, social considerations and multi-stakeholder service outcomes. Finally, implications for operations theory and practising managers in city logistics are highlighted, with suggested directions for future research.     

Online patient feedback as a safety valve: An automated language analysis of unnoticed and unresolved safety incidents

Safety reporting systems are widely used in healthcare to identify risks to patient safety. But, their effectiveness is undermined if staff do not notice or report incidents. Patients, however, might observe and report these overlooked incidents because they experience the consequences, are highly motivated, and independent of the organization. Online patient feedback may be especially valuable because it is a channel of reporting that allows patients to report without fear of consequence (e.g., anonymously). Harnessing this potential is challenging because online feedback is unstructured and lacks demonstrable validity and added value. Accordingly, we developed an automated language analysis method for measuring the likelihood of patient-reported safety incidents in online patient feedback. Feedback from patients and families (n = 146,685, words = 22,191,427, years = 2013–2019) about acute NHS trusts (hospital conglomerates; n = 134) in England were analyzed. The automated measure had good precision (0.69) and excellent recall (0.98) in identifying incidents; was independent of staff-reported incidents (r = −0.04 to 0.19); and was associated with hospital-level mortality rates (z = 3.87; p < 0.001). The identified safety incidents were often reported as unnoticed (89%) or unresolved (21%), suggesting that patients use online platforms to give visibility to safety concerns they believe have been missed or ignored. Online stakeholder feedback is akin to a safety valve; being independent and unconstrained it provides an outlet for reporting safety issues that may have been unnoticed or unresolved within formal channels.     

Using hegemonic masculinity to explain gay male attraction to muscular and athletic men

This article reviews relevant research on male homosexual attraction. Utilizing masculinity as its theoretical frame, the authors use childhood experiences with both fathers and peers, the gay community's inculcation of heteronormative ideologies, and the gay media's adherence to masculine prototypes, to provide causal explanations for the appeal of muscular, lean, and athletic physiques. While the authors acknowledge that not all individuals within the gay community look toward muscularity and athleticism as the primary components of attractiveness, it nonetheless remains important to examine the theoretical perspectives that may explain the appeal of this specific aesthetic.     

Six‐ and 9‐Month‐Old Infants Discriminate Between Goals Despite Similar Action Patterns

Behne, Carpenter, Call, and Tomasello (2005) showed that 9‐ to 18‐month‐olds, but not 6‐month‐olds, differentiated between people who were unwilling and unable to share toys. As the outcome of the two tasks is the same (i.e., the toy is not shared), the infants must respond to the different goals of the actor. However, visual habituation paradigms have shown an earlier onset of goal awareness. The present study reconciles this disparity by replicating the findings of Behne et al. with both 6‐ and 9‐month‐olds, using similar tasks and additional response measures.     

Realism and Contingency

This paper constitutes an extended response to Athanasia Chalari's paper The Causal Impact of Resistance, which suggests that one may derive from internal conversations a causal explanation of resistance. In the context of our engagements with critical realism and digital research into social movements, we review Chalari's main argument, before applying it to a concrete case: the student protests in London, 2010. Whilst our account is sympathetic to Chalari's focus on interiority, we critique the individualism that is implicit in her argument, arguing that it emerges because of an underlying neglect of the relational aspects of resistance. Instead, we offer a relational realist analysis that treats resistance as process within an ontologically stratified account of reality that is mindful of the contingency of political acts. Taking this route, we establish resistance as an emergent relation, generative of distinctive “relational goods” in the context of collective action, which we locate at different levels of reality, as we move from an analysis of individual to collective reflexivity. In doing so we offer a sympathetic critique of Chalari, building on the thought provoking arguments contained within it, whilst also making a contribution to the theorisation of social movements and the “relational turn” within realist social theory (Archer, 2010, 2012).     

A Nonstationary Cylinder–Based Model Describing Group Dispersal in a Fragmented Habitat

□ A doubly nonstationary cylinder-based model is built to describe the dispersal of a population from a point source. In this model, each cylinder represents a fraction of the population, i.e., a group. Two contexts are considered: The dispersal can occur in a uniform habitat or in a fragmented habitat described by a conditional Boolean model. After the construction of the models, we investigate their properties: the first and second order moments, the probability that the population vanishes, and the distribution of the spatial extent of the population.     

Conceptualising the politics of social protection expansion in low income countries: The intersection of transnational ideas and domestic politics

The growing literature on social protection in low income developing countries has tended to focus on definitional debates, policy design and impact evaluations, with relatively little consideration of the ways in which politics shape policy. This article argues that politics needs to be at the centre of efforts to understand social protection and outlines a new conceptual framework for investigating this, with a particular focus on explaining the variation in progress made by low income countries in adopting and implementing social protection. We propose that an adapted ‘political settlements’ framework that incorporates insights from the literatures on welfare state development – notably ‘power constellations’ theory, discursive institutionalism and global policy networks – can help frame political commitment to social protection as flowing from the interaction of domestic political economy and transnational ideas. Importantly, this approach situates social protection within a broader political and policy context, and highlights the influence of underlying power relations at multiple levels.     

Understanding human ambivalence about sex: The effects of stripping sex of meaning

We offer a theoretical perspective to provide insight into why people are ambivalent about sex and why cultures regulate sex and attach symbolic meaning to it. Building on terror management theory, we propose that sex is problematic for humankind in part because it reminds us of our creaturely mortal nature. Two experiments investigated the effects of reminding people of the similarity between humans and other animals on their reactions to the physical aspects of sex. In Study 1, priming human‐animal similarities led to increased accessibility of death‐related thoughts after thinking about the physical but not romantic aspects of sex. In Study 2, when participants were reminded of similarities between humans and other animals, mortality salience resulted in decreased attraction to the physical but not romantic aspects of sex. In each study, priming thoughts about how humans are distinct from animals eliminated the association between sex and death.