‘Imposed unknowns’: a qualitative study into the impact of Independent Living Fund closure on users

The Independent Living Fund (ILF) was a non-departmental public body funded by the Department for Work and Pensions. An efficient and popular system of support, the ILF enabled 46,000 people between 1988 and 2015; however, in 2015 the Fund closed and local authorities (LAs) assumed sole responsibility for supporting former ILF users. This article presents the experiences of 12 former ILF users as they transition from ILF to LA support. We focus on participants’ experiences of ILF and LA support, their transition from ILF to LA support, and the emotional impact of transition. Participants were universally positive about their dealings with the ILF, whilst nearly all were worried about LA provision. For most participants, the process of transfer was not smooth; participants received insufficient information and poor communication from LAs. Participants expressed anxiety and uncertainty over the future and these feelings were exacerbated by the actions of LAs during transfer.     

Optimal Forecasts from Markov Switching Models

We derive forecasts for Markov switching models that are optimal in the mean square forecast error (MSFE) sense by means of weighting observations. We provide analytic expressions of the weights conditional on the Markov states and conditional on state probabilities. This allows us to study the effect of uncertainty around states on forecasts. It emerges that, even in large samples, forecasting performance increases substantially when the construction of optimal weights takes uncertainty around states into account. Performance of the optimal weights is shown through simulations and an application to U.S. GNP, where using optimal weights leads to significant reductions in MSFE. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Bayesiam simultaneous estimation for several multinomial distributions

A Bayesian method is proposed for estimating the cell probabilities of several multinomial distributions. Parameters of different distributions are taken to be a priori exchangeable. The prior specification is based upon mixtures of a hierarchical distribution, referred to as the multivariate “Dirichlet-Dirichlet” distribution. The analysis is facilitated by a multinomial approximation relating to the multinomial-Dirichlet distribution. The posterior estimates depend upon measures of entropy for the various distributions and shrink the individual observed proportions towards values obtained by pooling the data across the distributions. As well as incorporating prior information they are particularly useful when some of the cell frequencies are zero. We use them to investigate a numerical classification of males of various vocations, according to cause of death.     

Unions and the structure of earnings inequality: Cross-national patterns

We examine differences in the structure of earnings inequality for men in four advanced western industrialized nations that differ in the nature and extent of unionism: the United States, Canada, Norway, and Sweden. We argue that the economic effects of unionism depend on whether (1) the bargaining structures of labor markets are centralized or fragmented; and (2) the political organization can be characterized as a corporatist or a pressure-group system. We find some support for our principal hypotheses that cross-national differences in systems of collective bargaining and political institutions affect the size of the earnings gap between male union and nonunion members, as well as the extent of wage dispersion among unionized workers.     

A mixture model for the detection of Neosporosis without a gold standard

Neosporosis is a bovine disease caused by the parasite Neospora caninum. It is not yet sufficiently studied, and it is supposed to cause an important number of abortions. Its clinical symptoms do not yet allow the reliable identification of infected animals. Its study and treatment would improve if a test based on antibody counts were available. Knowing the distribution functions of observed counts of uninfected and infected cows would allow the determination of a cutoff value. These distributions cannot be estimated directly. This paper deals with the indirect estimation of these distributions based on a data set consisting of the antibody counts for some 200 pairs of cows and their calves. The desired distributions are estimated through a mixture model based on simple assumptions that describe the relationship between each cow and its calf. The model then allows the estimation of the cutoff value and of the error probabilities.     

Deterministic approximate inference techniques for conditionally Gaussian state space models

We describe a novel deterministic approximate inference technique for conditionally Gaussian state space models, i.e. state space models where the latent state consists of both multinomial and Gaussian distributed variables. The method can be interpreted as a smoothing pass and iteration scheme symmetric to an assumed density filter. It improves upon previously proposed smoothing passes by not making more approximations than implied by the projection onto the chosen parametric form, the assumed density. Experimental results show that the novel scheme outperforms these alternative deterministic smoothing passes. Comparisons with sampling methods suggest that the performance does not degrade with longer sequences.     

The G20's engagement with civil society: participation without contestation?

ABSTRACT

With global governance experiencing a democratic deficit, the G20's formalized engagement with civil society – the C20 – seems to be an anomaly. However, there is a gap between the G20's rhetoric and practice, with the C20 incorporating civil society organizations (CSOs) into the G20, while also limiting their ability to contribute to its agenda. This article attempts make sense of this gap by analysing the C20 through the modes of participation framework, arguing it represents an attempt to organize and manage social conflicts emerging from civil society, but do so in a way that constrains its ability to contest G20 policy. The article analyses the ways in which the C20 is designed to do so, as well as CSO strategies to overcome these constraints. While these strategies increase CSO's leverage and independence, their effectiveness remains shaped by G20 practices and the underlying political economy structures of the global economy.     

Reports of Conferences,Institutes, and Seminars

Abstract

This column covers sessions from the 2018 Charleston Library Conference, an informal annual gathering of librarians, publishers, electronic resource managers, consultants, and vendors of library materials in Charleston, South Carolina, in November. Topics include the impact of open access and open research, assisting faculty with locating and integrating these resources into their courses through partnerships and open applications, and managing gifts and donations with restricted resources.