Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

Identity Development in an International Transracial Adoptive Family: A 5-Year Case Study

Our case study focused on the adoptive identity development of two female Chinese adoptees over the course of five years (from when they were 7 and 9 until they were 12 and 14 years old, respectively). The study investigated the adoptive parent’s and family identities through six interviews with the adoptive mother, adoptees’ behavioral adjustment reported by the mother, two unstructured observations, and exploration of adoptees’ narratives. The study was guided by a narrative-based framework situated with the cultural socialization approach. Results highlight four central themes: 1) becoming Chinese-Americans; 2) meaning related to adoption is both spoken and unspoken; 3) a we-ness identity, and 4) social-cultural contexts of identity work. Findings demonstrate the incorporation of adoption and the adoptees’ race and culture into the adoptive parent’s and family identities. Findings further illuminate that one’s identity is developed within personal, familial, and social-cultural contexts.     

Cultural Endorsement of Broad Leadership Prototypes and Wealth as Predictors of Corruption

Corruption is a social ill that involves public officials’ misuse of entrusted power, which is a function of sociocultural factors. Rarely, however, do researchers view corruption as a leadership-related problem. In the current research, we conceptualize corruption as a leadership-related problem, and propose three broad leadership prototypes based on social value orientation theory and research. We seek to examine (1) how cultural endorsement of self-serving, prosocial, and individualistic leadership prototypes is related to corruption at the societal level and (2) how wealth moderates the relationship between cultural endorsement of self-serving leadership and corruption. Using archival data of 53 societies, we found that cultural endorsement of self-serving leadership was positively related to corruption, strengthened by wealth. Cultural endorsement of prosocial leadership and individualistic leadership, however, was not significantly related to corruption, and wealth did not moderate either of the relationships. The implications of these findings for theory and future research are discussed.     

Substance use among older youth transitioning from foster care: Examining the protective effects of religious and spiritual capital

Among older youth transitioning from the foster care system, this longitudinal study examined the association of religious and spiritual capital to substance use in the past year at age 19. Participants consisted of African American (N = 179) and White non‐Hispanic (N = 133) older youth in foster care. Drawing from social capital theory, it was posited that religious service attendance (a proxy for religious capital) and belief in a spiritual force (a proxy for spiritual capital) would be inversely associated with substance use. Multiple logistic regression results indicated support for the first and second hypothesis for White foster youth only. Among White foster youth, more frequent religious service attendance and greater belief in a spiritual force were associated with a lower likelihood of illegal substance and polysubstance use. No association between religious or spiritual capital and substance use was found among African American foster youth. The findings underscore the importance of conducting spiritual assessments to help ensure older foster youth who have strong religious or spiritual orientations are in environments where they are accommodated and supported.     

‘Street-level bureaucracy,management and the corrupted world of service’

Lipsky's analysis of the implementation gap in welfare policy in ‘Street-level Bureaucracy’ focuses on the problem of front-line discretion but ‘brackets off’ the discretion of senior managers. In this paper I draw on a qualitative study to argue that senior managers can also exercise significant discretion and that their discretion can contribute to the conditions of policy confusion and contradiction, and resource inadequacy that characterise ‘the corrupted world of service’ of front-line discretion. In this context front-line discretion may be used by front-line staff to bridge the policy implementation gap created by senior managers.     

Motivators for Seeking Gambling-Related Treatment Among Ontario Problem Gamblers

A random digit dialing telephone survey was used to interview 8,467 adults in Ontario, Canada. The NODS-CLiP was used to identify a representative sample of 730 gamblers (54.3% male, mean age 45.3 years) with possible past year gambling problems in order to explore factors that might affect disordered gamblers’ motivators for seeking gambling-related help. A final sample of 526 gamblers provided useable data on possible reasons for and barriers to seeking help, awareness of services, self-perception of gambling problems and experience with help-seeking. Financial and relationship issues were the most frequently volunteered motivators. However, over two-thirds of the respondents could not think of a reason for seeking help. Gamblers who had self-admitted or more severe problems, who knew how to get help, who were employed and had more education, and who identified possible barriers to seeking help were more likely to suggest motivators, especially financial ones. More research is recommended on gamblers’ trajectory towards recognition of a gambling problem, the process of overcoming specific barriers to treatment, and the role of social advantage (e.g., education and employment), in order to devise educational campaigns that will encourage earlier help-seeking among disordered gamblers.     

Policy Autonomy and the History of British Aid to Africa

This article utilises historical information to throw light on the forces shaping British aid policies towards Africa. It outlines key long‐term policy developments, summarises the influences shaping these policies and comments on the present juncture of UK policies. It shows that, while there have been many influences, governments have enjoyed considerable policy autonomy, being largely unconstrained in pursuing their preferences in a top‐down manner. This autonomy has mainly been used for the pursuit of long‐term development, as against the promotion of the UK's national interest. The present thrust of UK policies to achieve massive increases in aid to Africa is a prime example of this policy autonomy.     

A group‐based module for adolescents to improve motivation to change sexually abusive behaviour

This article describes a group‐based intervention for adolescents specifically designed to improve motivation to change sexually abusive behaviour. The intervention is intended to be used as a single module within a comprehensive treatment programme based on cognitive behavioural and relapse prevention principles. It utilizes the Prochaska and DiClemente ( 1983 , 1986 ) model of the stages of change and Morrison's ( 1998 ) seven steps in contemplating change. We have combined these two models to produce ‘11 Steps of Motivation and Action in Changing Sexually Abusive Behaviour’. These 11 steps form the foundation of the intervention. In this paper we describe how we use the 11 steps, with accompanying illustrative vignettes and question cards describing juvenile sexual abusers at various points along the continuum of change, in order to promote the acceptance of responsibility for abusive behaviour and the development of skills to prevent reoffending. Examples of the vignettes are provided, along with a discussion of how they can be used to motivate change, develop healthy group norms in treatment and set individual goals for clients. Finally, we highlight the possibility of future applications of this intervention with male adult abusers, adolescent and adult female abusers, parents groups, significant other groups, individual clients and children with sexually aggressive behaviour. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.