How Inventory Cost Influences Introduction Timing of Product Line Extensions

In the industry with radical technology push or rapidly changing customer preference, it is firms' common wisdom to introduce high‐end product first, and follow by low‐end product‐line extensions. A key decision in this “down‐market stretch” strategy is the introduction time. High inventory cost is pervasive in such industries, but its impact has long been ignored during the presale planning stage. This study takes a first step toward filling this gap. We propose an integrated inventory (supply) and diffusion (demand) framework and analyze how inventory cost influences the introduction timing of product‐line extensions, considering substitution effect among successive generations. We show that under low inventory cost or frequent replenishment ordering policy, the optimal introduction time indeed follows the well‐known “now or never” rule. However, sequential introduction becomes optimal as the inventory holding gets more substantial or the product life cycle gets shorter. The optimal introduction timing can increase or decrease with the inventory cost depending on the marketplace setting, requiring a careful analysis.     

What probability should a jury address?

Probability of guilt is not the criterion on which a verdict in a criminal trial should be based, says Tony Gardner-Medwin . The courts, quite sensibly, do not even allow access to some of the background evidence on which a proper assessment of this probability should be made. He argues that a more satisfactory criterion is the probability, or degree of belief, that the evidence could have arisen without guilt.     

After the War Comes Peace? An Examination of the Impact of the Northern Ireland Conflict on Young People

When the conflict in Northern Ireland erupted over 30 years ago many voiced concern at the implications for children and young people. In the early years many looked to U.S. experience in order to frame questions, problems, and solutions. This article examines the strands of psychological research that developed and their link to the articles in the present collection. The article critiques the consensus among psychologists in the 1970s and 1980s that young people coped reasonably well in difficult circumstances. One theme of the current collection is to highlight the difficulties of dealing with the legacies of the past thirty years and hence the constraints facing the attempt to establish a peaceful and settled society.     

The Macroeconomics of Doubling Aid to Africa and the Centrality of the Supply Side

The proposed doubling of aid to Africa by 2010 is a less simple proposition, from a recipient point of view, than is commonly supposed. This article argues that it is difficult to manage large and rapidly increasing aid inflows in ways which do not disadvantage producers of tradeable goods, and the private sector generally. This difficulty can be averted if conscious efforts are made to offset it and to stimulate positive responses from the supply side. Whether such responses prevail over the shorter‐term management difficulties depends on the efficacy of state actions — and of aid — to bolster the supply side. The outcome is likely to be mixed, depending on country circumstances.     

Appreciative Inquiry and Public Dialogue: An Approach to Community Change

This paper will demonstrate the contribution of Appreciative Inquiry (AI) to whole system change in the public and non-profit sectors through elucidation of the theory, method, and examples of the successful application of this approach. Developed in the mid 1980s by David Cooperrider and his colleagues at Case Western Reserve University, AI begins with the discovery of the highest achievements, core values, and aspirations embedded in all human systems. It is a methodology that begins a dialogue between individuals, expands to groups and builds to embrace and declare community wide intentions and actions. The theory of social constructionism informs this work asserting that individuals in relationship with one another can and will co-create an effective future when a positive inquiry into the heart and soul of a system, its greatest accomplishments and deepest values, generates new meaning and inspires new possibilities. Deceptively simple, the system is based on a reversal of the expectations, practices, and limitations found in traditional problem solving methodologies and thus represents a significant shift in attitude and language.