DO DRAGONS HAVE BETTER FATE?

Traditionally, belief in the Chinese zodiac promotes the superstition that the timing of one's birth determines one's fate. Adherence to this belief has resulted in increased birth rates during Dragon years and, hence, problems in the logistics of providing certain public goods and services (such as schools and medical services) by governments. Despite the possible economic impacts of this superstition on society, no previous study has attempted to test its validity. Using the 1991 and 1996 Hong Kong census data sets, as well as the standard return-to-education methodology, we do not find any evidence for this pervasive superstition. (JEL J13 , J18 , Z12 )     

Shapiro,A.C.: Multinational Financial Management

RJB Review of Journals and Books

Shapiro, A.C.: Multinational Financial Management     

National indicators for health for all

This paper examines available international data relevant to the World Health Organization model of health status. It explores the possibility of constructing useful measures of health status, health policy, social and economic status, and provision of health care based on these data. A five-factor model is developed and tested empirically using World Bank statistical data from 123 countries. Two factors representing dimensions of country affluence and population density are found to explain 78 percent of the variations in the health status indicator. The countries with health status indicator levels worse than those predicted by the model are predominantly third-world countries; a majority are African. Countries with health status indicator levels better than predicted are mainly in Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Some generally accepted causal relationships were not supported by the findings in this analysis.     

Integrations,identity and conflicts: A cross-border perspective on residential relocation of Hong Kong citizens to Mainland China

This paper aims to test if traditional literature on both internal residential mobility and international migration hold up in explaining the driving forces behind the home-moving behaviours of Hong Kong residents to the Chinese Mainland, under a mixture of economic integrations, past connections along with present structural and identity differences. The multi-dimensionality of this behaviour, in comparison to other forms of residential movements in the literature, is shown as there is no single attribute, albeit all necessary conditions, sufficient enough to encourage such movement on its own. Instead, the cross-border residence is primarily a middle-class, middle-aged phenomenon, due to one’s past connections with Mainland China throughout his/her life course and the possession of financial resources insufficient to afford larger living space in Hong Kong yet enough to benefit from the remarkable living cost advantages on the other side of the border. It provides some directions for studying similar forms of residential mobility in the era of globalization when the functions of national borders have become more obscure than before. Implications from this residential behaviour are then discussed.     

香港教科书的编辑:提升质量的建议

教科书是教育系统中重要的环节,它是教学的重要内容、知识的系统性组织、课程与教学问的连结.然而,香港对教科书的探讨仍然不足,而且教科书的质量仍有待提升.在制度层面分析香港教科书编审情况的基础上;从教科书研究、政府审书尺度、政府审书取向、教科书内容质素等四方面,阐述提升教科书效能的建议.作者认为,香港特区政府仍负有最重要的责任.能否加强教科书研究?能否强化审书机制?能否扮演更积极的审书角色?这些都是特区政府能否提升教科书质量所必须面对和解决的重要问题.     

Maternal influences on effortful control in adolescence: Developmental pathways to externalizing behaviors

Adolescents' effortful control is subject to numerous maternal influences. Specifically, a mother's own effortful control is associated with her child's effortful control. However, maternal substance use, psychopathology, and stress within the parenting role may also lead to poor effortful control for their child. Poor effortful control during adolescence can subsequently contribute to a variety of negative outcomes, including externalizing behaviors. A sample of 460 adolescents (47% female, 59.3% Non‐Hispanic Caucasian) was selected from a longitudinal, multigenerational study. The goal was to examine maternal effortful control, substance use, psychopathology, and stress in their offspring's childhood (M_age = 6.27) and their influence on their children's effortful control in early adolescence (M_age = 12.21) and the subsequent effect of effortful control on adolescents’ externalizing behavior (M_age = 13.53). Maternal effortful control (measured via conscientiousness) and psychopathology were associated with adolescent effortful control, which was associated with externalizing behavior a year later. Additionally, there was a significant indirect association between maternal effortful control and adolescent externalizing behaviors via adolescent effortful control. Thus, adolescent effortful control is associated with maternal effortful control but also subject to specific maternal risk factors in childhood. These results inform potential maternal strategies for promoting positive developmental outcomes in adolescents.     

染整实验教学中如何加强对学生能力的培养

本文根据染整专业改革的思想,围绕染整实验教学中出现的问题,提出如何通过实验课的各个环节、各种实验手段和教学方法来开发学生智力、启迪学生思维、培养学生观察、分析判断问题的能力及解决问题的能力。     

A performance measurement paradigm for integrating strategy formulation: A review of systems and frameworks

Measuring organizational performance plays a very important part in translating corporate strategy into results. Various emerging (non-traditional) performance systems have recently been devised to aid firms in selecting and implementing measures. This paper discusses the strategy/measurement initiatives and compares ten emerging performance measurement systems with respect to a list of performance dimensions, the characteristics of performance measures, and the requirements of development process. Although these systems have constraints borne with their own application domains, they stand by themselves empirically and/or theoretically, and provide guidance about what to measure and how to design performance measures that could be linked to the corporate strategy and objectives of an organization. This paper concludes that there is a need to develop a paradigm for integrating strategy formulation and performance measurement in organizations.     

Prior distributions for variance parameters in a sparse-event meta-analysis of a few small trials

In rare diseases, typically only a small number of patients are available for a randomized clinical trial. Nevertheless, it is not uncommon that more than one study is performed to evaluate a (new) treatment. Scarcity of available evidence makes it particularly valuable to pool the data in a meta-analysis. When the primary outcome is binary, the small sample sizes increase the chance of observing zero events. The frequentist random-effects model is known to induce bias and to result in improper interval estimation of the overall treatment effect in a meta-analysis with zero events. Bayesian hierarchical modeling could be a promising alternative. Bayesian models are known for being sensitive to the choice of prior distributions for between-study variance (heterogeneity) in sparse settings. In a rare disease setting, only limited data will be available to base the prior on, therefore, robustness of estimation is desirable. We performed an extensive and diverse simulation study, aiming to provide practitioners with advice on the choice of a sufficiently robust prior distribution shape for the heterogeneity parameter. Our results show that priors that place some concentrated mass on small τ values but do not restrict the density for example, the Uniform(−10, 10) heterogeneity prior on the log(τ²) scale, show robust 95% coverage combined with less overestimation of the overall treatment effect, across varying degrees of heterogeneity. We illustrate the results with meta-analyzes of a few small trials.