Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.     

The socioeconomic institutions of organizing: Origin, emergence, and reproduction

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the development of a theory of (organizing) institutions primarily relevant for capitalistic market Economics, a theory which significantly improves our general ability to describe, explain and predict organized or organizational action. Six basic institutions—or infrastructures for human (interaction (the market, the corporation, the (social) movement, the association, the circle and the clan)—are deduced, defined and also finally put together in the form of a repertoire of ideal types. Moreover, two meta-institutions (the state, the anarchy) are added to this initial repertoire of six institutions to allow for the introduction of what could be regarded—at least from some premises—as a more general (i.e., societal) level.     

MEASURING LEVELS OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION DOES QUESTION ORDER MATTER?

This article examines whether asking the vote question beforeparty identification alters the strength of partisanship andits relationship to vote choice. It employs the 1992 BritishElection Survey, which included a random split half-sample experiment,and the 1992–93 American Election Study Panel, where thequestion order for party identification and the vote were changed.The results show that altering the question ordering had verylittle effect in Britain and no significant effect in the UnitedStates. These results are consistent with the notion that partyidentification is one of the more enduring and stable componentsof mass political behavior in both presidential and parliamentarysystems.     

Assessment of influence in non-linear measurement error models

We consider the assessment of outliers and influential observation in non-linear measurement error models. Residuals, leverage measures and case-deletiondiagonostics are examined. The method of local influence is also applied to the models. In particular, the perturbation of measurement error variances has been found useful in assessing the adequancy of the model assumptions. A numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the diagonostics.     

Differences in preferred level of arousal in two sub-groups of problem gamblers: A preliminary report

Twelve problem poker machine players and thirteen horse race gamblers (20 males and 5 females; age range 28–69) completed a series of questionnaires which assessed levels of anxiety, their preferred state of arousal and their motivations to gamble. As predicted, problem poker machine gamblers were found to be more anxious and reported avoiding arousal more frequently than the horse race gamblers. Alternately, problem horse race gamblers were found to prefer heightened levels of arousal and appeared to gamble to achieve these optimal levels of arousal. However, there was no difference between the groups on proneness to boredom. The present results provide evidence which is consistent with the Reversal theory and its application to the field of problem gambling.