中国环境与规划（三）

中国人常说：“良药苦口,忠言逆耳”。在中国做了10年规划,我看到了一些不是简单的问题。有些问题不知道是否应该说出来,但是如果不说出来,我认为有愧领导的爱护。有一次,我与好朋友前纽约环境保护局局长、世界上一流的水处理专家AL APPLETON交谈这些问题。没想到,他与我有许多共同的看法。后来,我告诉他我正在写一本有关对中国规划建议的书,不如他来个“友情演出”,替我写一篇我们对环境保护共同看法的文章。为了得到更多“外脑”的意见和支持,我要求编辑必须将原文登出。     

Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Parameterizing Expectations

This article describes a method for solving the one-good stochastic growth model by parameterizing the expectations part of the stochastic Euler equation. The conditional expectation is specified as a function of the state of the system, and the parameters of that function are estimated to solve the model. The article includes a discussion of how to find the parameters of the function and determine systematically the complexity of the functional form necessary to solve the model.     

Pseudo-bayes estimation of multinomial proportions

In the simultaneous estimation of multinomial proportions, two estimators are developed which incorporate prior means and a prior parameter which reflects the accuracy of the prior means. These estimators possess substantially smaller risk than the standard estimator in a region of the parameter space and are much more robust than the conjugate Bayes estimator with respect to parameter values far from the prior mean. When vague prior information is available, these estimators and confidence regions derived from them appear to be attractive alternatives to the procedures based on the standard estimator.     

The Impact of Educational Homogamy on Isolated Illiteracy Levels

In this article, we explore the impacts that education expansion and increased levels in educational homogamy have had on couples’ isolated illiteracy rates, defined as the proportion of illiterates in union that are married to an illiterate partner. First, we develop the methodology to decompose isolated illiteracy rates into two main components: one related to level of homogamy among illiterates, and the other related to the educational distribution of the spouses. Second, we use harmonized international census microdata from IPUMS and DHS data for 73 countries and 217 samples to investigate which of the two components is more important in shaping the level of isolated illiteracy. Our results indicate that the expansion of literacy has been more powerful than the increases in the tendency toward homogamy in its impact on isolated illiteracy rates. As the percentage of illiterates decreases over time, an increasingly large proportion of them marry literate individuals, showing that opportunities for intermarriage among illiterates expand despite the strengthening of homogamy.     

Private Bag: Regionwide Planning Will Make the Problems Worse

Population and Environment -     

Transformations in social work: From help towards social inclusion to the management of exclusion

The debate about the forms of increasing social exclusion in the developed western industrialized nations is the starting-point of this paper. This is followed by a discussion of the possible and likely consequences of social exclusion for social work theory and practice. It is suggested that on the social-theoretical basis of Luhmanns Systems Theory, social work can be investigated as the practice of averting exclusion, facilitating inclusion, and the management of exclusion in functionally differentiated societies. Against this background it is argued that social work as a form of secondary protection, both theoretically and practically, has to be related to the modes of inclusion and exclusion of social systems and organizations. In order to provide a theoretical clarification of the social tasks and opportunities of social work it is therefore necessary to conduct a precise analysis of the structures, forms, and processes of social inclusion and exclusion. At present it seems likely that, because of general societal developments, the increasing extent of exclusion and the intensification of exclusionary effects will lead to a situation in which social work will be restricted to the function of the management of exclusion.     

Förderung sozialer Ressourcen — eine gemeindepsychologische Perspektive

The subject of ?resources‘ has become a much discussed topic, even a buzzword, in the fields of counselling and psychotherapy in recent years. A problem-oriented approach is called for with equal perspectives which emphasize the positive sides of a person in terms of strengths and empowerment. Community psychology expands on this view of counselling and therapeutic work by focussing on context-related resources and how they balance with the individual potential of a person. Special attention has been placed on social resources which have been formed through the social network. In recent years, there have been a number of tested methods supporting networking. They indicate a suitable, resource-oriented approach complementing clinical psychological counselling.     

Observed and parent‐reported conscience in childhood: Relations with bullying involvement in early primary school

This exploratory study aimed to examine which components of early childhood conscience predicted bullying involvement around school entry. In the population‐based Generation R Study, teacher reports of bullying involvement and parent reports of conscience were available for 3,244 children (M age = 6.7 years). Higher levels of overall conscience predicted lower bullying perpetration scores, independently of intelligence quotient, temperamental traits and sociodemographic characteristics. Particularly, the subscales guilt, confession, and internalized conduct, and to a lesser extent empathy, predicted bullying perpetration. Conscience was not related to victimization. Similar results were found using observations during so‐called ‘cheating games’ (subsample N = 450 children). Findings suggest that improving children's understanding of moral standards and norms may be a potential target for bullying intervention programs in early primary school.