Multinational alliances: A note on the perception of technology executives

Multinational alliances in the 1980s came into vogue as one of the prominent instruments of corporate strategies. In the process of forging alliances, especially in the technologyintensive firms, senior technology executives such as directors of R & D often play a vital advisory role. This short paper reports the findings of survey of American technology executives. Among the findings two are noteworthy in the conceptualizations of multinational alliances: Alliances are viewed as a means to solving a firm's strategic problems, and as offering mutual learning opportunities, rather than win-win possibilities for firms entering the alliances.     

Hypothesis testing for Markov chain Monte Carlo

Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are useful when one is interested in deciding whether the expected value of a certain quantity is above or below a given threshold. We show non-asymptotic error bounds and bounds on the expected number of samples for three types of tests, a fixed sample size test, a sequential test with indifference region, and a sequential test without indifference region. Our tests can lead to significant savings in sample size. We illustrate our results on an example of Bayesian parameter inference involving an ODE model of a biochemical pathway.     

The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth

The old age security approach is used to study the relationship between the rate of growth of the population and capital accumulation, within a Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework. It is shown that a decentralized economy will fail, in general, to achieve the Pareto optimal path. However, a pay-as-you-go social security scheme in which the old get transfers which are proportional to the number of their children may restore optimality. On the other hand, child support systems or subsidies to capital can guarantee the optimal capital: labor ratio, but not the optimal population growth rate, while a lump sum social security system can guarantee the optimal population growth rate, but not the optimal capital: labor ratio. Finally, in a monetary economy any policy aimed at correcting the interest rate will restore full optimality.An earlier version of this paper was written during a visit to the University of California, San Diego. The paper benefited from the comments of two referees.     

An Ambiguous Concept: On the Meanings of Co-production for Health Care Users and User Organizations?

Neither on the level of interactions between organizations nor on the level of servicing users, co-production has a fixed meaning. It is argued that there are different meanings that unfold once one looks at the impact of narratives such as consumerism, managerialism, or participatory governance. Altogether with the traditions of state-welfare, they simultaneously influence the modes and meanings of co-production in personal services. Taking up the example of modern healthcare systems and its hallmarks in Germany, it is shown that, therefore, uncertainty and ambiguity is the normalcy rather than the exception when it comes to define co-production. Role-expectations such as the “expert–patient” or the “citizen–consumer” have a liberating potential, but may likewise marginalize issues such as trust and the need for protection. User organizations are well challenged beyond their role of helping users to cope as good as possible with given role models of co-production.     

Testing for Serial Correlation in Fixed-Effects Panel Data Models

In this article, we propose various tests for serial correlation in fixed-effects panel data regression models with a small number of time periods. First, a simplified version of the test suggested by Wooldridge (2002) and Drukker (2003) is considered. The second test is based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) statistic suggested by Baltagi and Li (1995), and the third test is a modification of the classical Durbin–Watson statistic. Under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation, all tests possess a standard normal limiting distribution as N tends to infinity and T is fixed. Analyzing the local power of the tests, we find that the LM statistic has superior power properties. Furthermore, a generalization to test for autocorrelation up to some given lag order and a test statistic that is robust against time dependent heteroskedasticity are proposed.     

Deceit,diversity, or mobilization?: Intra-ethnic diversity and changing patterns in Florida's Hispanic Vote

What explains President Bush's increased vote in the State of Florida in the 2004 election? A common perception is that implementation of electronic voting machines and a surge in GOP registration increased Bush's vote margins relative to the 2000 election. In this paper we offer an alternative explanation: massive Puerto Rican immigration combined with successful Republican mobilization of this group explains about 14% of the increase in Bush's margin of victory—approximately 50,000 votes. Scholars’ failure to account for intra-ethnic diversity, by employing a “panethnic” approach that treats Latinos as having identical political preferences, leads scholars to overlook the important role of Hispanic subconstituencies in the 2004 election.     

Strategies to Improve the World Food Programme's Revenue Mobilisation and Procurement Practices

Currently, a vast majority of WFP food procurement is executed through spot markets, which exposes it to substantial commodity and transport price risk as well as significant delays in delivery. The WFP also has limited flexibility owing to unpredictable revenue mobilisation, partly driven by restricted donor contributions. However, a significant portion of its operations are fairly predictable – both in terms of countries and delivery volumes. There are several types of derivatives contracts available at commodities exchanges that can facilitate strategic hedging. Greater commitments of untied cash donations from the US and other major donors can give the WFP significant operational flexibility to execute prudent financial management operations without damaging local food markets.     

Individuals' Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part II—New Evidence

Using new survey data, we test the hypothesis that individuals' perceptions of health and safety risks are unbiased. While we find that respondents' estimates of those risks are sensitive to the information they are given to anchor their responses, we find no evidence to support the widely held view that people tend to underestimate the frequency of relatively common risks. The slight tendency for respondents to overestimate the frequency of extremely unlikely events can plausibly be interpreted as truncation bias. Overall, the accuracy of our subjects' estimates varies in a manner that is fully consistent with simple conjectures about the health and safety information that is of greatest relevance to them in the conduct of their lives. The marked difference between the results of our survey and those of previous studies appears to be attributable to the practical implications of costly information and the common failure of investigators to account for the fact that rational individuals will choose to acquire less than full information about many uncertain events.     

Informal Self-Employment in Developing Countries: Entrepreneurship or Survivalist Strategy? Some Implications for Public Policy

A central debate around labor market informality, which has enormous implications for the design and implementation of public policy, relates to the nature of informal employment. Is informal employment and, in particular, informal self-employment, a symptom and, at the same time, a reproductive factor of precariousness and inequality, as well as social and individual poverty? Or is it, on the contrary, a space of individual and social action that reflects economic initiative and business potential which, if channeled and fostered properly, could contribute to social and economic development and, consequently, to the reduction of inequality and poverty? In this article, the findings of the 2005 edition of the Mexican version of the World Value Survey—concerning relevant values and attitudes of informal participants in the labor force in Mexico—are used to assess whether informal self-employment is a reflection of incipient entrepreneurship and individual choice or, rather, a survival strategy forced on individuals by their precarious circumstances. This article explores the public policy implications of the results obtained.