ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF MATCHED-PARIS PERMUTATIO STATISTICS BASED ON DISTANCE MEASURES

A technique for deriving asymptotic distributions of matched-pairs permutation statistics based on distance measures is discussed and applied to four specific examples recently considered by Mielke & Berry (1982).     

Science as a rational enterprise

Scientists often disagree about whether a new theory is better than the current theory. From this some (e.g., Thomas Kuhn) have inferred that the values of science are changing and subjective, and hence that science is an irrational enterprise. As an alternative, this paper develops a rational model of the scientific enterprise according to which the scope and elegance of theories are important elements in the scientist's utility function. The varied speed of acceptance of new theories by scientists can be explained in terms of the optimal allocation of time among different scientific activities. The model thus accounts for the rationality of science in a way that is broadly consistent with the empirical evidence on the history and practice of science.     

Community Structure and Voting in the South

This article combines census and survey data to assess the effectsof community characteristics, black concentration and urbanism,on the decision processes of southern white voters. Examiningvoting for Wallace in the 1968 election, the effects of blackconcentration on voting, attitudes, issue salience, and perceptionsof candidates are found to be generally greater in rural thanin urban areas.     

Sustaining growth in the modern enterprise: A case study

This paper describes a model developed to demonstrate the constancy of and virtual need for change in a sustaining organization. Several executives from different organizations were interviewed in order to capture the dynamics structure. Essential variables were listed and causal modeling was used to obtain important relationships. Equations of interrelationships among the variables were developed. Validation of the model was performed at two levels: (1) validation of the structure as suggested by the causal modeling process using a new methodology and (2) validation of the emergent behavior by using case studies of industries which have different time rates of evolution.     

Attitudes Towards Food Safety and the Environment: A Comparison of Conswners in Japan and the U.S.1

Abstract Numerous studies have demonstrated dwindling consumer confidence in the safety of the food supply and growing interest in purchasing "safe" foods. However, this research has painted no consistent picture of those concerned about food safety, nor has it investigated the relationship between environmental and food safety attitudes. A mail survey of Japanese and the United States consumers is used to evalulate whether selected environmental attitudes can explain food safety concerns and behavior. Findings indicate high concern about food safety in both countries, but income, age, education, and attitudes about the impacts of fossil fuel use explain little of the variance. Instead, that concern appears to be prompted largely by an interest in obtaining a healthy diet. It is also noted that Japanese consumers are more concerned about both food safety and the impacts of fossil fuel use, perhaps because of Japan's lack of natural resources and high food import levels.     

Knowledge-based resolution of conflicting expert opinions

If several agents must collectively choose one of several possible acts (or compute a single joint control strategy) and if they disagree about the probable

consequences of the acts, then how can they resolve their differences and make a choice? The statistics and management science literatures offer several probability aggregation formulas for solving this problem. This paper discusses an alternative that emphasizes knowledge-based resolution of conflicting probability judgments.     

Keynote Address

Abstract

Because of the increasing prevalence of eating disorders in college populations, it is increasingly important for student health services to identify affected individuals. Therefore, the authors analyzed the student health forms of member schools of the New York State College Health Association for the presence of items that would identify an eating disorder. Directors of health services that include specific questions about eating disorders on health forms were then surveyed for their opinions about this practice.

Specific items about eating disorders (anorexia nervosa, bulimia, vomiting to lose weight, laxative use to lose weight) were included on 5 of 111 forms. Less specific items including dissatisfaction with weight, being on a diet, or binge eating appeared on 10% of forms.

Approximately one-third of the students known by health service staffs to have an eating disorder reported this on their health form, when provided a specific opportunity to do so. Even though underreporting by students is potentially a problem in such circumstances, the health service directors all recommended the inclusion of items relating to eating disorders on student health forms.

“Human Papillomavirus Type 16 and Early Cervical Neoplasia,” CHRISTOPHER P. CRUM, et al. Flat warts (condylomata) of the uterine cervix are sometimes cytologically atypical and have abnormal mitotic figures; they are thought to be possible precursors of cancer of the cervix. Flat warts are caused by any of a number of types of human papillomaviruses (HPVs), one of which (HPV 16) has been previously associated with invasive cancer of the cervix. To determine whether HPV 16 is also associated with flat warts with abnormal mitoses, we analyzed 23 flat warts by DNA-hybridization techniques for the presence of HPV 16 and other HPV types, and correlated the results with the histology. Of 10 lesions with abnormal mitotic figures, 7 contained HPV 16, and 1 contained another type of HPV. Of 13 lesions without abnormal mitotic figures, only 1 contained HPV 16, and 7 contained other types of HPV.

We conclude that the presence of HPV 16 correlates with the presence of abnormal mitotic figures in flat warts of the cervix, and that this type of flat wart is a precursor of invasive cancer of the cervix. (New England Journal of Medicine 1984;310:880–3.)     

Exchange rate premia and discounts for retail purchases using Mexican pesos in El Paso, Texas

This paper studies the exchange rates at which Mexican pesos are accepted for retail purchases in El Paso, Texas. A stratified random sample of 586 participating firms is surveyed to examine two aspects of reverse dollarization in the El Paso/Ciudad Juárez border region. The first is to determine the percentage of retail businesses in El Paso that accept foreign currency in the form of Mexican pesos. The results suggest that just over 13.1% (77/586) of all retail firms in this market accept pesos, which on average, comprise 4.35% of total sales for those firms. The second is to calculate the effective exchange rate at which firms accept Mexican pesos. We find that 68.5% of firms accepting the peso do so at a premium. We discern these two aspects further utilizing various multivariate analyses.